HOW FIRMS MANAGE RISK: THE OPTIMAL MIX OF LINEAR AND NON-LINEAR DERIVATIVES

This paper provides guidance on how corporations should choose the optimal mix of "linear" and "non-linear" derivatives. Linear derivatives are products such as futures, forwards, and swaps, whose payoffs vary in linear fashion with changes in the un-derlying asset price or reference rate. Non-linear derivatives are contracts with option-like payoffs, including caps, floors, and swaptions.
A company's optimal hedging position should generally consist of linear contracts because of their effective-ness in smoothing corporate cash flows. But as the firm's business (quantity) risk increases, its use of linear contracts will decline due to costs associated with overhedging. At the same time, there will be a shift towards the use of non-linear contracts. The degree of substitution of non-linear for linear in-struments will depend on the relation-ship between the quantities to be hedged and market prices. A negative relationship will tend to exacerbate the substitution effect while a positive re-lationship will dampen the effect. An empirical examination of corporate derivative holdings provides support for all of the major hypotheses.     

Strategic Preemption in a Common Property Resource: A Continuous Time Approach

The threat of future entry affects the exploitation of common property resources in important ways. An incumbent has a strategic incentive to manipulate the resource stock to deter entry or to harvest more stock prior to entry rather than share the resource with the entrant. It is possible that the threat of potential entry can lead to the extinction of the resource even though actual competition would result in a steady state with a positive stock level.     

Forward exchange rates in general equilibrium

This paper develops a two-country, overlapping-generations model of an economy with a forward market in foreign exchange. The equilibrium forward rate exhibits the conventional decomposition into the expected future spot rate, a convexity term and a risk premium. Unlike partial equilibrium models, however, the model expresses these terms as functions of the primitive structural parameters of the economy. It thus provides insights into the structure of the premium which may facilitate interpretation of empirical studies of the forward markets. In particular, it suggests that time-varying risk premia may arise from changes in the distribution of wealth between countries over time.     

Clocking the Progress in Time Use Research

Book reviewed in this article:
Joachim Merz and Manfred Ehling (eds.), Time Use –Research, Data and Policy     

Matching Supply and Demand: The Value of a Second Chance in Producing Seed Corn

This paper analyzes the supply chain for hybrid seed corn in which there are two sequential production periods with random yields before demand occurs. We show that the problem of managing the supply chain can be viewed as a multiperiod optimization model that is easily solved. By examining data that represents actual costs, prices, and yields encountered in the seed corn industry, we gain some insight into the value that the second production period provides. Using a representative sample of hybrids from a major seed corn producer, we show that margins could be enhanced considerably by using the model.     

Deterring nuclear weapons proliferation

In the wake of the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, the problem of nuclear proliferation has become one of the primary issues of strategic concern The proliferation problem is an old one, but the problem today is very different from that of even a few years ago. calling for new approaches. By considering demand and supply factors, the old approaches that rely on limits on the technology or supply appear inadequate in the current situation Rather, the best approaches today are those that influence demand, making it less attractive for nations to develop nuclear weapons. The constraints on the United States that inhibit it from using its nuclear weapons to threaten new nuclear states make both nuclear deterrence and guarantees to countries not acquiring such weapons ineffectual in preventing further proliferation. The use of conventional forces to prevent proliferation or to protect threatened nations may also be politically difficult unless there are clear national interests at stake.
A possible way out of this dilemma is to develop a system of conventional deterrence using precision guided munitions and other recent technological developments that have increased the accuracy of weapons delivery systems. Such a system of conventional deterrence could play an important role in making nuclear weapons of less perceived value to potentially proliferating nations and in protecting regions that these nations threaten.