Confidence sets for the date of a break in level and trend when the order of integration is unknown

We propose methods for constructing confidence sets for the timing of a break in level and/or trend that have asymptotically correct coverage for both I(0) and I(1) processes. These are based on inverting a sequence of tests for the break location, evaluated across all possible break dates. We separately derive locally best invariant tests for the I(0) and I(1) cases; under their respective assumptions, the resulting confidence sets provide correct asymptotic coverage regardless of the magnitude of the break. We suggest use of a pre-test procedure to select between the I(0)- and I(1)-based confidence sets, and Monte Carlo evidence demonstrates that our recommended procedure achieves good finite sample properties in terms of coverage and length across both I(0) and I(1) environments. An application using US macroeconomic data is provided which further evinces the value of these procedures.     

ALTERNATIVE WEIGHTING APPROACHES TO COMPUTING INDEXES OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

This paper compares the weighting schemes in the traditional, principal component and dynamic factor approaches to summarizing information from a number of component variables. To facilitate the comparison, we propose a framework to discuss the approaches with respect to their implied loadings in a latent variable model. We also propose a way to transform the dynamic factor index into an analogous index which is a weighted average of the components. The framework shows the strengths and weakness of the alternative weighting schemes and the sense in which the dynamic factor approach has the advantage of capturing both the significance and the variability of the components.     

Making the Prevention of Homelessness a Priority: The Role of Social Innovation

Mass homelessness emerged in Canada in the wake of neoliberal policies that reduced government production of housing and other supportive measures. Efforts to reduce homelessness have occurred in three stages: 1) an emergency response in the 1990s that consisted mostly of investment in shelters, soup kitchens, and day programs, 2) the implementation of community plans to end homelessness, combined with the adoption of Housing First as a strategy that seeks to provide reliable shelter as a first step to anyone without it, followed by other remedial services, and 3) the recent development in Canada of early intervention strategies to prevent homelessness from its inception. The second stage was highly successful in dealing with the situation of chronically homeless adults, and many communities have begun to see reductions in homelessness. However effective, this approach does not break the cycle by intercepting potentially homeless individuals in their youth, which is when it begins for many people. Canada is at the beginning stages of the move towards a stronger focus on prevention, aided by a social innovation agenda to identify, design, test, and evaluate preventive interventions to determine which ones will be most strategically effective, setting the stage for implementation and going to scale.     

Asset pricing and energy consumption risk

This paper proposes energy consumption in the US as a new measure for the consumption capital asset pricing model. We find that (i) industrial energy growth produces reasonable values for the relative risk aversion coefficient and the implied risk-free rate; (ii) compared to alternative consumption measures, industrial energy performs well in explaining the cross-sectional variation in stock returns with the lowest implied risk aversion and pricing errors; (iii) the industrial energy consumption risk model performs equally well as the Fama–French three-factor model in the cross-sectional asset pricing tests; and (iv) total energy consumption risk is priced in the presence of the Fama–French factor risks.     

Azéma martingales for Bessel and CIR processes and the pricing of Parisian zero‐coupon bonds

In this paper, we study the excursions of Bessel and Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) processes with dimensions . We obtain densities for the last passage times and meanders of the processes. Using these results, we prove a variation of the Azéma martingale for the Bessel and CIR processes based on excursion theory. Furthermore, we study their Parisian excursions, and generalize previous results on the Parisian stopping time of Brownian motion to that of the Bessel and CIR processes. We obtain explicit formulas and asymptotic results for the densities of the Parisian stopping times, and develop exact simulation algorithms to sample the Parisian stopping times of Bessel and CIR processes. We introduce a new type of bond, the zero‐coupon Parisian bond. The buyer of such a bond is betting against zero interest rates, while the seller is effectively hedging against a period where interest rates fluctuate around 0. Using our results, we propose two methods for pricing these bonds and provide numerical examples.     

Political economy of the US–Mexican tomato trade agreement

We develop a political economy model to analyse the US–Mexican tomato trade agreement by treating the minimum import price as a negotiated settlement. We incorporate the special characteristics of the US–Mexican tomato dispute, namely trade among large countries, the role of competing fresh and processed tomato lobbies, quota revenues accruing to Mexican producers, bargaining for a minimum import price rather than a tariff, and the role of the Canadian tomato market. We show the importance of the size of the lobby group's supply, the weight elected officials' place on national welfare, and the elasticities of export supply and import demand in determining the optimal price wedge. For the United States, larger fresh tomato or cherry–grape tomato supply intensifies the degree of protection awarded to US growers, while US processors work to mitigate this effect. From Mexico's perspective, larger Mexican fresh or cherry–grape output induces a push towards free trade due to the agreement's depressing effect on Mexican prices, while Mexican processors and quota revenues exacerbate the price wedge.     

Sustainable Consumption Behavior in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Conceptual Framework

This paper develops a conceptual framework for investigating the adoption patterns, inhibitors, and facilitators (PIF) of sustainable consumption in sub-Sahara African (SSA) settings. Literature evidence shows paucity of empirical studies on sustainable consumption from SSA, which partly explains lack of suitable conceptual framework to guide research in this area. Also, the existing frameworks, which were developed outside SSA may not be suitable for constructing sustainable consumption behavior in SSA because of its peculiarities. The key significance of this article is the potential of providing future researchers in this area with a framework to guide and manage their studies. As a conceptual article, insight was drawn from a plethora of scholarly articles in the domain of sustainable consumption and related areas. The framework is built on four key constructs—adoption patterns, inhibitors, facilitators (PIF), and intention. As a guide for studies from the SSA, the article includes an empirical section, which provides preliminary empirical validation for the proposed PIF conceptual framework based on a pilot test. The result from the pilot study, using structural equation modeling (SEM), led to positing the PIF Sustainable Consumption model, thus giving support for the PIF Conceptual Framework, which this article puts forward. In addition, the proposed PIF conceptual framework is capable of providing insight for crafting sustainability-related policies. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The post‐application labour market consequences of employment tribunal claims

This article examines the post‐application employment consequences for individuals registering complaints to Employment Tribunals following dismissal or redundancy. We consider several pieces of evidence: (a) the probability of finding another job, (b) the time taken to get a new job and (c) the pay/status of the new job. Our results indicate that age plays a significant role in aspects (a) and (c), while those who previously held managerial positions generally took longest to get a new job and found it most difficult to achieve a similar level of pay/status in their current jobs. Long‐term health problems/disability is associated with significantly worse outcomes on all three measures. Respondents whose cases were dismissed by tribunals without hearings fared worst in terms of obtaining a new job and the time it took to do so. There are, however, fewer differences by tribunal outcome in the relative pay/status of the claimant's current job.