The role of (non-)transparency in a currency crisis model

This paper extends the work by Morris and Shin (Am. Econom. Rev. 88 (1998) 587-597) where multiple equilibria in the self-fulfilling currency attack models can be reduced to a unique equilibrium when agents observe fundamentals privately with small errors. We find that under a more general specification with realistic parameters, noisy private observations are generally insufficient to prevent the multiplicity of equilibria. The pivotal role played by the transparency of fundamentals/policies in currency crisis is also examined. Surprisingly, transparency may trigger rather than eliminate currency crises when fundamentals are relatively healthy. Our results may be relevant to research in other coordination problems.     

Financing Transit Systems Through Value Capture

A bstract .   Much of the literature on value capture reports empirical findings on the incidence of rising land values related to distance from a transit stop following the installation of rail transit improvements. This annotated bibliography shows that the elevated value effects of transit access are well documented. The authors maintain that it is now time for transit/land-use research to move from hypothesis testing to practical applications of value capture . Longitudinal models can help predict land-value increments over a period of time, yielding estimates of the total capturable revenues that would support the debt financing of transit improvement projects.     

The Effects of local Fair Housing Ordinances on Housing Segregation: Their Impact Is Small, But It's an Important Positive Change Toward Integration

Abstract . State and local fair housing ordinances, patterned after federal legislation, are promoted by federal policy. This study investigates whether these local laws have had any effect on levels of residential segregation between Whites and Blacks, 1970-1980, by comparing changes in segregation for 111 cities characterized by different types of fair housing coverage. Results show average declines of 9 points in the index of dissimilarity, with cities covered by both state and local laws declining slightly more than cities with no fair housing coverage. Declines are not greater in cities with laws that are “substantially equivalent” to Title VIII vs. cities with non-equivalent laws. When changes in segregation were examined by a variety of population, economic and housing variables that may affect segregation change, it was found that local ordinances continue to have a small, but statistically significant effect. This effect varies according to the pattern of segregation change under study; deconcentration of ghetto areas and integration of White areas are not affected by type of local fair housing coverage.     

Some Determinants of Property Crime: Economic Factors Influence Criminal Behavior But Cannot Completely Explain the Syndrome

Abstract . An empirical analysis of the property crimes, robbery, burglary and larceny, is presented for all 120 counties in Kentucky. While this analysis is based on an economic model of crime, certain sociological and legal variables are included as well in the system of equations. Overall, the empirical results support prior studies’findings with the exception that a quadratic relationship is found to exist between urbanization and each of the property crimes. Furthermore, neither the economic nor the non economic influences measured appear more important for affecting crime rates. Specifically, results indicate that the level of poverty, the degree of tourism, the presence of police, the unemployment rate and the apprehension rate all affect property crimes. In contrast, the length of sentence, the degree of industrialization, the level of public assistance payments and the proportion of youth in the county have no affect on property crime rates in these areas.     

Urban Regulations and the Price of Land and Housing in Korea

South Korea is a remarkable macroeconomic success story, but it has performed relatively poorly in one respect: the provision of high quality housing at reasonable prices. This paper analyzes the Korean housing market and the market for related inputs, with special emphasis on the regulatory environment.     

Government wage differentials

This paper shows that public sector wages usually exceed private but the size and composition of the differentials depend on sex and level of government. Using a technique derived from the literature on sex discrimination, these differentials are decomposed into a portion attributable to differences in productivity between the two types of workers and a portion ascribed to economic rent. This rent results from public workers' relatively greater political influence in the government wage-setting process and a systematic upward bias in public wages imparted by present government pay policy.     

Social Security, Poverty and Economic Transition: An Analysis for Bulgaria 1992–96

The paper addresses the issues of poverty and social security in a transitional environment on the basis of recent economic developments in Bulgaria. Special emphasis is placed on the need for a new type of social safety net stemming from the radical changes in the political and economic system. The evolution of the social security system in Bulgaria during the transition is analysed focusing on such elements as the pension system, unemployment benefits, child allowances, etc. The empirical analysis is based on extensive use of data from the Bulgarian Household Budget Surveys during the period 1992–1996. Poverty in Bulgaria is measured using different poverty measurements and some quantitative results showing the changing dimensions of poverty in the transition period are presented and discussed in the paper.EES or e-mail at Corresponding author. E-mail:     

Evaluating the British Model of Electricity Deregulation

Abstract ** :  A key aspect of the 1990 reforms to the British electricity supply industry was the introduction of a formal system of regulation by an autonomous regulatory body. It was expected that replacement of monopolies in some areas by markets and price‐setting in monopoly areas using a simple incentive formula would mean that regulation of the industry would be 'light'. This article examines how regulation has turned out in practice. It concludes that the promise of 'light' regulation has not been fulfilled. Regulation of competitive markets is a major regulatory activity, incentive regulation has evolved into a complex and intrusive form of rate‐of‐return, while regulation of industry structure has allowed the industry to descend into a concentrated, vertically integrated structure, at odds with the aims of the reforms .     

Market power in input purchase and trade

Market power in the input purchase is becoming increasingly common because of growing consolidation and mergers and also due to multinational firms establishing a stronghold in buying inputs in the developing countries. In this study, we formulate a general equilibrium model consisting of a competitive sector and an oligopsony sector which exercises market power over inputs. Our results indicate that if the oligopsony sector incurs a higher marginal factor cost for the intensive factor, basic results of the standard two-sector model continue to hold. But if the marginal factor cost is higher for the non-intensive factor, then factor intensities in the physical and value sense differ and traditional trade propositions such as the Stolper–Samuelson theorem do not hold.     

美国房地产泡沫的崩盘:全球经济的魔鬼?

美国的房地产投机泡沫正在破裂。这种转变将通过多种途径影响到美国经济:建筑业下滑将使美国经济增长率减少约1．5个百分点,而财富效应的逆转会造成约0．5个百分点的影响。加之其他因素．房地产泡沫破裂将使美国经济增长率降低2．0个百分点以上。而对于失衡的全球经济而言．美国房地产泡沫的破裂将会造成很大影响。