URBANIZATION,HEALTH AND HUMAN STATURE

Economic growth has not always generated improvements in a population's health. Biological indicators of human well‐being, including stature, suggest the march to prosperity was not a steady one, and these biological indicators offer estimates of the health costs associated with modern economic growth. We employ an international data set to study the socioeconomic benefits and health costs associated with the transition to modern economic growth during the nineteenth century. We find that while the growth of GDP per capita had a positive impact on the stature of Western populations, prior to the mastery of the germ theory of disease, urbanization had a strong negative impact.     

The Postal Sector as a Vector of Financial Inclusion

Access to finance has become a major policy issue under the term Financial Inclusion. In this paper, we focus on the role of postal operators in financial inclusion policies. In developing countries, postal firms typically manage a dense network of counters with a unique coverage of rural areas where the banking sector is totally absent. We use a formal location model for postal counters and bank agencies to show that in rural areas a post‐bank partnership can be a vector of financial inclusion and that this can be done profitably.     

"All Decisions Are Top-Down:" Engendering Public Expenditure in Vietnam

Between October 1999 and June 2000 a joint government-donor working group undertook a public expenditure review in Vietnam that was supposed to use "gender issues" as a cross-cutting theme. The article discusses ways in which a gender analysis could have been incorporated into a review of public expenditure, and examines why this did not happen in the end. Flaws in the process reduced the scope of gender analysis. Institutional constraints on the part of both the government and the World Bank weakened the commitment to a gender analysis. More fundamentally, however, it is argued that the methodological approach of the World Bank rendered it incapable of investigating possibly unquantifiable macrostructural and mesoinstitutional determinants of individual behavior. It is further argued that the conceptualization of social institutions offered by the World Bank with regard to gender relations fails to adequately express the extent to which social institutions are gendered.     

Purchasing power parity over two centuries: trends and nonlinearity

In two recent contributions Lothian and Taylor, and Cuddington and Liang, produced empirical evidence that annual data for the dollar-sterling real exchange rate spanning two centuries exhibited a non-linear deterministic trend. This trend could be proxying Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effects. Lothian and Taylor showed that a linear stationary autoregressive mode, which embodied a cubic trend, implied much faster mean reversion of the real exchange rate to shocks than a model that excluded the trend. This article shows that both non-linearity and a deterministic trend can be allowed for in a theoretically appealing manner and that the fitted models provide a parsimonious explanation of both the dollar-sterling and franc-sterling real exchange rates over the two centuries of data. Generalized impulse response function analysis of the models demonstrates that the speed of adjustment to shocks can be even faster when trends are considered.     

Dynamic almost ideal demand systems: an empirical analysis of alcohol expenditure in Ireland

This paper presents a dynamic form of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). Three versions of the static AIDS model are employed to determine the preferred long-run equilibrium model and represents the short-run dynamics by an error correction mechanism. This estimation procedure is then applied to alcohol expenditure in Ireland. The estimated point elasticities are consistent with previous studies and a priori expectations. Beer and spirits are found to be price inelastic in both the short and long run. While wine is price inelastic in the short run and price elastic in the long run.     

The effect of robust growth on poverty: a nonlinear analysis

Previous research has shown that economic growth should help to reduce the rate of poverty. However, a number of recent studies have found that the economic expansion of the 1980s had no statistically significant effect on aggregate poverty. It is shown that both a Threshold regression and a Fourier approximation provide a better empirical model of poverty than the standard linear model. It is noteworthy that the nonlinear specifications show a large and significant effect on poverty of the 1980s expansion.     

The power of asymmetric unit root tests under threshold and consistent-threshold estimation

The asymmetric unit root tests of Enders and Granger (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 16, 304–11, 1998) are examined using consistent threshold estimation and the original two-step procedure. In contrast to earlier studies, the ability of the tests to jointly reject the unit root and symmetry hypotheses is examined, thus permitting a fuller analysis of the tests' properties. Whilst the threshold autoregressive test is found to have little power in either its consistent or original forms, the consistent momentum-threshold autoregressive test is found to exhibit high power against a range of plausible alternatives when using newly derived critical values.     

Why do diners tip: rule-of-thumb or valuation of service?

When diners decide how much to tip, is the decision based on social convention or on conscientious appraisal of server productivity? Previous researchers in economics and social psychology are generally inconclusive on this question. A common finding in the literature is that tip size and service quality are unrelated, a result usually obtained from OLS regressions. OLS is only appropriate if service quality is exogenous. It is argued that service quality is very likely endogenous in any regression of tip size; good quality encourages good tips, but server expectations of good tips encourage good quality. This simultaneity is accounted for by jointly estimating percentage tips and customer rankings of service quality on a sample of 247 diners in a Central Minnesota restaurant. Included are explanatory variables consistent with both the social psychology and economic views of tipping. In contrast to previous studies, it is found that service quality significantly affects tip size and when servers expect higher tips, customers rank service quality higher. Also it is found that patronage frequency and coupon redemption have no effect on percentage tips, but server gender influences quality significantly. It is concluded that the results are generally supportive of an economic hypothesis of tipping.     

Prequential analysis of stock market returns

The Brier score and a covariance partition due to Yates are considered to study the probabilistic forecasts of a vector autoregression on stock market returns. Probabilistic forecasts from a model and data developed by Campbell (1991 Campbell, JY. 1991. A variance decomposition for stock returns. Economic Journal, 101: 157–79.  ) are studied with ordinary least squares. Calibration measures and the Brier score and its partition are used for model assessment. The partitions indicate that the ordinary least squares version of Campbell's model does not forecast stock market returns particularly well. While the model offers honest probabilistic forecasts (they are well-calibrated), the model shows little ability to sort events that occur into different groups from events that do not occur. The Yates-partition demonstrates this shortcoming. Calibration metrics do not.     

Efficiency in the NFL betting market: modifying and consolidating research methods

Modifying and consolidating previous research methods to generate more reliable estimates, some fairly weak evidence is found of inefficiency in the NFL betting market resulting from a bias favouring home underdog (against away favourite) teams. In contrast to previous research, no evidence is found that ‘momentum strategies’ generate significant returns in this market.