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191.
Steven J. Miller Eric T. Bradlow Kevin Dayaratna 《Quantitative Marketing and Economics》2006,4(2):173-206
Articles in Marketing and choice literatures have demonstrated the need for incorporating person-level heterogeneity into
behavioral models (e.g., logit models for multiple binary outcomes as studied here). However, the logit likelihood extended
with a population distribution of heterogeneity doesn’t yield closed-form inferences, and therefore numerical integration
techniques are relied upon (e.g., MCMC methods).
We present here an alternative, closed-form Bayesian inferences for the logit model, which we obtain by approximating the
logit likelihood via a polynomial expansion, and then positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a flexible family that
is now conjugate and integrable. For problems where the response coefficients are independent, choosing the Gamma distribution
leads to rapidly convergent closed-form expansions; if there are correlations among the coefficients one can still obtain
rapidly convergent closed-form expansions by positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a Multivariate Gamma distribution.
The solution then comes from the moment generating function of the Multivariate Gamma distribution or in general from the
multivariate heterogeneity distribution assumed.
Closed-form Bayesian inferences, derivatives (useful for elasticity calculations), population distribution parameter estimates
(useful for summarization) and starting values (useful for complicated algorithms) are hence directly available. Two simulation
studies demonstrate the efficacy of our approach.
JEL Classification C6 · C8 · M3 相似文献
192.
An analysis is presented of the relationships between consumers ethical beliefs, ethical ideology, Machiavellianism, political preference and the individual difference variable "need for closure". It is based on a representative survey of 286 Belgian respondents. Standard measurement tools of proven reliability and robustness are used to measure ethical beliefs (consumer ethics scale), ethical ideology (ethical positioning), Machiavellianism (Mach IV scale) and need for closure. The analysis finds the following. First, individuals with a high need for closure tend to have beliefs that are more ethical as regards possible consumer actions, and score higher on idealism and lower on Machiavellianism, than those with a low need for closure. Second, a correlation exists between political preference and ethical beliefs. Third, a significant relationship exists between ethical ideology and political preference for the two largest political parties. Fourth, individuals with a high and low need for closure have different political preferences for right-wing and left-wing parties. 相似文献
193.
This paper implements the technique suggested by Den Haan (J Monet Econ 46:3–30, 2000) to investigate contemporaneous as well as lead and lag correlations among economic data for a range of forecast horizons. The lead/lag approach provides a richer picture of the economic dynamics generating the data and allows one to investigate which variables lead or lag others, and whether the lead or lag pattern is short term or long term in nature. This technique is applied to monthly sectoral level employment data for the USA and shows that among the ten industrial sectors followed by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, six tend to lead the other four. These six have high correlations indicating that the structural shocks generating the data movements are mostly in common. Among the four lagging industries, some lag by longer intervals than others and some have low correlations with the leading industries. These low correlations may indicate that these industries are partially influenced by structural shocks beyond those generating the six leading industries, but they also may indicate that lagging sectors feature a different transmission mechanism of shocks. 相似文献
194.
We use data on people's valuations of options outside marriage and beliefs about spouses' options. The data demonstrate that, in some couples, one spouse would be happier and the other spouse unhappier outside of some marriages, suggesting that bargaining takes place and that spouses have private information. We estimate a bargaining model with interdependent utility that quantifies the resulting inefficiencies. Our results show that people forgo some utility in order to make their spouses better off and, in doing so, offset much of the inefficiency generated by their imperfect knowledge. Thus, we find evidence of asymmetric information and interdependent utility in marriage. 相似文献
195.
Steven C. Michael 《Small Business Economics》2014,42(3):611-620
Prior research has examined why franchisors expand abroad, but no paper has empirically examined the role of franchising in the macroeconomy of developing nations. In this paper, the pattern of franchising development is statistically analyzed within the context of the general economic development of Latin America. It is found that franchising leads, rather than follows, economic development. Implications for theory and policy are considered. 相似文献
196.
This study examines the relation between earnings management and block ownership of same‐industry peer firms by a common set of institutional investors (common institutional ownership). This relation is important given the tremendous growth of common institutional ownership and the significant influence of blockholders on financial reporting. We hypothesize that common institutional ownership mitigates earnings management by enhancing institutions' monitoring efficiency and by encouraging institutions to internalize the negative externality of a firm's earnings management on peer firms' investments. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that higher common institutional ownership is related to less earnings management. Analyses of a quasi‐natural experiment based on financial institution mergers show that this negative relation is unlikely to be driven by the endogeneity of common institutional ownership. Cross‐sectional tests provide evidence that the negative relation is stronger among firms for which common institutional ownership is likely to generate a greater reduction in institutions' information acquisition and processing costs, and among firms whose severe financial misstatements are more likely to distort co‐owned peer firms' investments, supporting both mechanisms underlying our hypothesis. Our findings inform the ongoing debate on the costs and benefits of common institutional ownership by highlighting an important benefit: the enhanced monitoring of financial reporting. 相似文献
197.
We extend the Tobit (censored) linear equation system procedure to utility‐theoretic demand functions, along with a mapping mechanism to impose the adding‐up restriction implied by consumer utility maximization theory—a theoretical restriction very often ignored in previous empirical studies with censored demand systems. In this context, the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure is applied to the censored linear approximate almost ideal demand system (LAIDS) for 12 food products, using data from the Turkish Household Expenditure Survey. All own‐price elasticities are negative and expenditure elasticities positive. Uncompensated own‐price elasticities for rural households are generally much higher than those for their urban peers, though demand for most food products are own‐price elastic for both types of households. The differential patterns in demand elasticities between urban and rural households become even more evident (almost twice) as relatively more expensive foodstuffs are consumed, showing that accessibilities to alternative products have made rural Turkish households more cognizant toward price changes in foods. Household characteristics play a key role in food expenditures, notably so in urban areas, and regional and seasonal differences are also present. 相似文献
198.
Bo Yu Shengbin Hao David Ahlstrom Steven Si Dapeng Liang 《Asia Pacific Journal of Management》2014,31(3):687-704
Successfully developing new products is critical to an entrepreneurial firm’s continued success. Based on the resource management model, this study aims to answer the key research question: how entrepreneurial firms leverage network competence and technological capability to enhance their new product development (NPD) performance in a turbulent environment. Using data collected from 134 entrepreneurial firms in China, we investigate the performance effects of network competence and technological capability, and the moderating effects of technological turbulence and market turbulence. Our findings show that network competence has a positive impact on NPD performance and technological capability plays a mediating role between network competence and NPD performance. Technological turbulence enhances the performance effects of network competence and technological capability; market turbulence advances the performance effect of network competence, but fails to exert significant negative impact on that of technological capability. We discuss managerial implications of our findings and offer directions for future research. 相似文献
199.
200.
Steven L. Heston K. Geert Rouwenhorst & Roberto E. Wessels 《European Financial Management》1999,5(1):9-27
This paper examines the ability of beta and size to explain cross-sectional variation in average returns in 12 European countries. We find that average stock returns are positively related to beta and negatively related to firm size. The beta premium is in part due to the fact that high beta countries outperform low beta countries. Within countries high beta stocks outperform low beta stocks only in January, not in other months. We reject the hypothesis that differences in average returns on size- and beta-sorted portfolios can be explained by market risk and exposure to the excess return of small over large stocks (SMB). Consistent with recent US evidence, we find that after controlling for size, there is no association between average returns and exposure to SMB. 相似文献