An Intertemporal Empirical Analysis of the Renter's Decision to Purchase a Home

In recent years a controversy has developed regarding the responses of different types of families to increases in the relative cost of homeownership. In order to provide evidence on this question, this study employs samples of renters from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to estimate the marginal probability of home purchase and the conditional expectation of the house value to income ratio. These cross-section estimations are performed for two separate time periods: 1968–70 and 1974–76. Among the conclusions reached (by analyzing intertemporal changes in predicted purchase probabilities and value to income ratios) are (1) that first-time homebuyers have not stretched their housing budgets in response to inflationary expectations, and (2) that the probability of purchase by many of these families has declined over time, especially at low income levels.     

Would Emergency Safeguard Measures Work for Services?

Discussions in the WTO on Emergency Safeguards Measures (ESMs) for services are now stalemated. While possibly justified on political economy grounds if they resulted in WTO members making more liberal commitments, their main supporters (ASEAN minus Singapore) have not amply demonstrated their desirability or technical feasibility (legal and economic means). The GATS already has sufficient in-built flexibility, and several forms of de facto safeguard provisions and other measures exist. The economic case for ESMs is weak, and the efficiency costs from capture by protectionists and lost investment from restricting established foreign investors could be potentially large. The proposed ASEAN model essentially replicates the goods' ESM, and has a number of deficiencies, such as having no national interest or economic test. The paper suggests a number of ways that the ASEAN model could be improved if the case for ESM on services was accepted. It also examines, as an alternative to an ESM, the possibility of members introducing a waiver to temporarily withdraw services commitments should an emergency situation arise.     

Small business valuation — financial and management implications for new industry entrants

This paper examines the characteristics of purchasers of hospitality businesses and the financial implications of three differing methods of financing such purchases. It finds that whilst the 50% debt-equity combination achieved the highest rate of return, the all equity alternative provided the least cash flow difficulty. Comparing income from the investment with income forgone, the purchaser is worse off during the first year of investment. It is therefore submitted that the purchase is undertaken in the belief that the business can be improved and generate a capital return over time.     

Balancing difficulty of performance targets: theory and evidence

We examine how firms balance difficulty of performance targets in their annual bonus plans. We present an analytical model showing that managerial allocation of effort is a function of not only relative incentive weights but also the difficulty of performance targets. We find that relative incentive weights and target difficulty can either be complements or substitutes in motivating effort depending on the extent to which managers have alternative employment opportunities. To test the predictions of our model, we use survey data on performance targets in annual bonus plans. Our sample of 877 survey respondents consists primarily of financial executives in small- and medium-size private companies where annual bonuses are important both for motivation and retention. Consistent with our model, we find that relative incentive weights are negatively (positively) associated with perceived target difficulty when concerns about managerial retention are high (low). It follows that performance measures included in annual bonus plans have sometimes easy and other times challenging targets depending on their relative incentive weights and retention concerns.     

“We Learnt that Being Together Would Give us a Voice”: Gender Perspectives on the East African Improved-Cookstove Value Chain

ABSTRACT

Improved cookstoves (ICS) have been promoted for several decades, with little success. Advocates looking to drive uptake encourage greater involvement of women in ICS enterprises, on the largely unproven premise that women’s participation in the value chain will enhance their financial bottom line while giving a boost to ICS sales. This paper tests the validity of that premise, using qualitative evidence from East Africa. The analysis shows gender-differentiated outcomes for enterprises across the value chain. Women-led enterprises are significantly underrepresented at higher levels of the chain, where sales volumes are highest. Value-chain positioning also influences access to key inputs like finance, potentially reinforcing the gender divide in enterprise performance. The findings challenge the dominant narrative in the ICS field about the inevitability of the link between market participation and economic empowerment for women and indicate a need to look beyond conventional market models to enhance financial outcomes for women.     

Relative Hedging of Systematic Mortality Risk

A number of problematic issues have arisen in anticipation of the potential role of molecular tests for genetic predispositions to illness in risk assessment by insurance underwriters. We argue in this paper that the regrettable history and current risks of genetic discrimination warrant a presumption that genetic predisposition status should not be used in any nonmedical contexts, unless compelling evidence can demonstrate that serious harm will result to third-party interests without such use. We argue that insurers should not be able to initiate testing for genetic predisposition. We also argue that there are many reasons to doubt whether patients’ test results will result in such serious adverse selection as to cause substantial harm to insurance markets, except possibly at higher policy amounts in life or disability income insurance. We conclude that the burden of proof must be on insurers to demonstrate necessity of use in specific cases in which test availability shows high probability of imminent, serious harm to insurance markets.     

Volatility,growth and cycles

The paper investigates the factors affecting the equilibrium level of output in a panel of European countries. Output depends on factor inputs and on the technology and the efficiency with which those factors are used. Efficiency may be driven by international conditions and institutional changes such as the Single Market Programme in Europe. The technology indicators used in this study depend upon research and development and also include the level of labour efficiency which is indexed on skills data. The level of the capital stock depends upon the user cost of capital, which may depend upon risk and hence on the volatility of the economy. Recent literature suggests that real exchange rate volatility is important in determining investment and therefore has an impact on equilibrium output. A link of this form is uncovered for the European economies. If policy can reduce these volatilities then it can also raise equilibrium output.