World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race

This paper examines the foundation for two scenarios of the future depicting how human civilization might destroy itself and possibly bring about the extinction of the human race in the process. The scenarios are based upon the two human-generated “fires” deeply ingrained within industrial civilization: (1) the nuclear “fire” of tens of thousands of nuclear weapons and their automated “launch on warning” alert systems and (2) the slow burning “fire” of global warming and runaway climate change. This paper also examines obstacles that are currently preventing the necessary first steps towards solving these problems.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Enterprise Restructuring in Central Europe

Foreign direct investment is at the forefront of economic policy decisions in Central Europe, as it is expected to accelerate enterprise restructuring and aid in the successful transition to a market economy. This paper contains a panel data study of the effects of FDI in 11 different manufacturing sectors within three Central European economies: Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. We find evidence that FDI has increased labour productivity levels in most manufacturing sectors. We are able to differentiate between sectors with a high elasticity of substitution between labour and capital and those that are inelastic. We have also presented evidence to support the theory that the impact on labour productivity is predominantly due to the intangible assets introduced by foreign firms, rather than simply the fixed capital investment associated with FDI.     

Rural employment in industrialised countries⋆

This paper assesses the recent changes in rural employment in the OECD countries, highlighting the growing role of employment in services and, in some cases, manufacturing activity. In many, but not all, rural areas the secular decline in agricultural employment has been more than counterbalanced by growing employment in these other sectors. However, the diversity of employment growth within and between rural areas is stressed, as are the implications of this diversity for policy. A range of explanations for the relative economic success of some rural areas is explored. These include the impacts of globalisation; restructuring of the labour market; new‘consumption’ demands on the rural areas; and human mobility. The paper concludes that traditional theories do not explain the diversity of outcomes in rural areas. New approaches are needed. Recent analyses under the banner of‘the new economic geography’ has advanced our understanding of the pre‐conditions for rural development to occur, but understanding the diverse pattern of rural employment outcomes within the same kind of geography remains a challenge which needs to be addressed by inter‐disciplinary approaches and methods.     

North–South Outsourcing,Immigration, and Skilled Wages: Through the Lens of Incomplete Contracts

The forces of immigration and offshore outsourcing are subject to factors that leave sufficient room for incompleteness in a contract. The authors present a model that allows one to compare the effects of immigration and offshore outsourcing, on skilled wage, when both are subject to contractual incompleteness. They capture the sensitivity of the effect on the skilled wage, of immigration and offshore outsourcing to complementarities between firm‐specific human capital and human capital that is transferable across firms manufacturing intermediate goods. In particular, the authors show that the North–South gap in skilled wages is likely to (i) increase through the forces of immigration when the intermediate goods' technology is super‐modular in the North but sub‐modular in the South and (ii) decrease through the forces of outsourcing when the intermediate goods' technology is sub‐modular in the North but super‐modular in the South.     

Catching-up of East German Labour Productivity in the 1990s

We provide empirical evidence for exogenous and endogenous catching-up of East German labour productivity to West German levels. We argue that labour productivity in East Germany has caught up faster than has happened elsewhere. The sudden formation of the German Monetary Union was followed by large transfers to East Germany, migration of workers to West Germany, reorganization and privatization of East German firms. This has quickly led to a partial closing of the organizational, idea and object gaps that existed between East and West Germany. This paper analyses labour productivity in East and West Germany using both aggregate German data and unbalanced panel analysis of developments in East and West Germany. Factors affecting the organization of production, and especially privatization and 'foreign' firms, are found to be particularly important in this context.     

The Valuation Accuracy of the Price-Earnings and Price-Book Benchmark Valuation Methods

This paper evaluates the valuation accuracy of the price-earnings (P/E), the price-book (P/B) and a combined price-earnings and price-book (P/E-P/B) benchmark valuation methods. Performance of the benchmark valuation methods relies on the definition of comparable firms. In this paper, comparable firms are selected based on industry membership, size and return on equity as well as combinations of industry membership with size and with return on equity. We find that within the P/E and P/B benchmark valuation methods, the best definition of the comparable firms are based on industry membership combined with return on equity. However, only the industry membership is necessary to define the comparable firms for the combined P/E-P/B method. In sum, the results suggest that, when firm's value is unknown, the combined P/E-P/B valuation approach selecting comparable firms based on industry membership performs the best among all the approaches evaluated in this paper.We also find that the P/E benchmark valuation method performs better than the P/B benchmark valuation method and the combined method outperforms either the P/E or the P/B method. These results imply that earnings are more important than book value as a single-number firm valuator over our sample years (from 1973 to 1992) and that both earnings and book values are value relevant, one does not substitute perfectly for the other.     

与现代化共生存--印度上层社会与家佣文化

这篇文章就印度加尔各答上层社会存在的家佣现象及其与印度现代化进程之间的关系进行了探索与分析.印度的家佣现象具有悠久的历史并且从未中断过.因此对这个社会现象进行研究是我们了解自我观念与社会关系的核心之处.本文表明,有偿家庭服务与家佣之间的关系与印度当今社会精英们的自我意识发展有着密切的联系.关于家的脆弱性和安全的担忧,同时也是对世界的脆弱性和安全的担忧.因此并不奇怪,关于变化中的家庭和世界秩序的焦虑,会被经常投射到佣人这一团体.因此,有关佣人的问题,实质上是关于一个现代人应该在家里和世界中如何去思考、行为和做人的问题.     

Survey of recent developments

SUMMARY Despite a bomb attack in Jakarta in August, the main financial indicators of macroeconomic health have continued to improve. Inflation is much lower than in 2002, and the exchange rate has remained fairly stable. Public debt as a percentage of GDP continues to fall, and foreign exchange reserves to increase. Deposit and money market interest rates have declined further, although this has yet to translate into significantly lower lending rates. Share prices have also been increasing rapidly, and Moody's recently upgraded Indonesia's credit ratings. The markets responded calmly to the largely political decision to terminate the IMF program at the end of 2003, reassured by a relatively conservative budget for 2004, and by the articulation of a longer-term strategy of balancing the budget by 2005.     

Weak Axiom of Cost Dominance: A Nonparametric Test of Cost Efficiency Without Input Quantity Data

Varian's Weak Axiom of Cost Minimization provides a nonparametric test of cost minimization, which can be applied only when both input price and quantity data are available for individual firms. In this paper we propose a Weak Axiom of Cost Dominance (WACD), which serves as the basis of an alternative test of cost-minimization applicable in situations where input quantity data are missing. Unlike a previous test developed by Diewert and Parkan, the proposed test does identify individual firms that violate the assumption of cost-minimizing behavior. It also provides an upper bound of the cost-efficiency of any observed firm. The test procedure is shown to be equivalent to applying dominance analysis using normalized input prices with reference to the Cost-indirect technology. The proposed method is applied to Nerlove's electrical utility data. The nonparametric results are also compared with parametric efficiency levels computed from a stochastic frontier cost function.     

Unsuccessful patent application and cooperative R&;D

We show that uncertainty in patent approvals may induce the firms to do cooperative R&D. With an exogenous probability of success in patent application, we show that, if all firms apply for patents under non-cooperative R&D, the firms prefer cooperative R&D than non-cooperative R&D for moderate (high) probabilities of success in patent applications, if the cost of patenting is small (large). We also show the implications of entry of non-innovating firms and endogenous probability of success in patent applications.