Mortgage-Backed Futures and Options

This paper empirically tests valuation models for the mortgage-backed futures-options contracts that traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) from June of 1989 until March of 1992. A simple contingent-claim model is shown to produce call option values on mortgage-backed futures (MBF) contracts that are unbiased estimates of actual futures-options prices. The ability of the MBF contract to hedge positions in current coupon Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA) securities relative to the effectiveness of cross-hedging GNMA positions with T-note and T-bond futures contracts is also examined.     

Nonlinear Drift And Stochastic Volatility: An Empirical Investigation Of Short-Term Interest Rate Models

In this article I provide new evidence on the role of nonlinear drift and stochastic volatility in interest rate modeling. I compare various model specifications for the short‐term interest rate using the data from five countries. I find that modeling the stochastic volatility in the short rate is far more important than specifying the shape of the drift function. The empirical support for nonlinear drift is weak with or without the stochastic volatility factor. Although a linear drift stochastic volatility model fits the international data well, I find that the level effect differs across countries.     

论老工业基地对地方经济的作用——以洛阳市为例

本文以洛阳为例,用实证的方法探讨了以装备制造业为主体的洛阳老工业基地在河南省工业经济中的重要作用,提出并分析了洛阳老工业基地在地方经济中,具有城镇化水平提高的带动作用、对农业现代化的促进作用和对全面建设小康社会与中原崛起的促进作用。     

中小企业板的推出对我国创业投资的影响

2004年5月，中小企业板在深交所获准设立，一时间，围绕中小企业板对创业投资运作影响的讨论空前热烈。笔者认为，要研究中小企业板对创业投资的影响，就必须从创业板和创业投资的内在机理出发，来研究中小企业板的制度安排是否能保证二者形成良性互动，关键的就是要研究中小企业板在制度上离一个成熟的创业板有多远。目前，学者和业内人士普遍对中小企业板的作用不甚乐观，而近一年来的实践也似乎验证了这一观点，因此，加强中小企业板的制度建设，使之尽快过渡为创业板，已经成了管理者的当务之急。     

Can Chinese Discuss Conflicts Openly? Field and Experimental Studies of Face Dynamics in China

Chinese people have been theorized to be particularly sensitive to social face and avoid direct discussion in conflict to promote interpersonal harmony. Social face has been used to explain the proclivity of East Asians to smooth over conflict. More research is needed to study social face empirically and its relationship with direct discussion and the processes by which social face has its impact. Results from a field interview study and an experiment conducted in China support theorizing that confirmation of face induces cooperative goals and open-mindedness. In contrast with common assumptions about Chinese organizations, direct discussion, compared to avoiding, strengthened relationships. Direct controversy, especially when face was confirmed, induced open-mindedness: Participants asked more questions, explored the opposing views, demonstrated more knowledge of the opposing arguments, and worked to integrate views. These results were interpreted as suggesting that Chinese people can discuss their conflicts directly and cooperatively when they are assured that their face is confirmed. Results have implications both for the general theory of cooperation and competition as well as our understanding of social face in China.     

Dynamics of the federal funds target rate: a nonstationary discrete choice approach

We apply a discrete choice approach to model the empirical behaviour of the Federal Reserve in changing the federal funds target rate, the benchmark of short‐term market interest rates in the US. Our methods allow the explanatory variables to be nonstationary as well as stationary. This feature is particularly useful in the present application as many economic fundamentals that are monitored by the Fed and are believed to affect decisions to adjust interest rate targets display some nonstationarity over time. The chosen model successfully predicts the majority of the target rate changes during the time period considered (1994–2001) and helps to explain strings of similar intervention decisions by the Fed. Based on the model‐implied optimal interest rate, our findings suggest that there is a lag in the Fed's reaction to economic shocks during this period. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

标准化在油藏监测工作中的作用

以油藏监测工作中的油藏压力监测为例，介绍了标准化工作在压力资料录取及解释分析中的作用。并用实例说明了标准化作业在油田开发方案的制定及油藏压力监测中的应用。     

浅析90年代以来日本"流通革命"的原因

90年代以后日本流通业进入激烈变革时期，这种变革是二战以来的第二次流通革命。流通革命改变了日本流通体系和结构，流通企业和生产企业之间的重组日益流行，流通运营方式正在发生变化，因此流通革命将对日本经济产生重要影响。导致日本流通革命的原因很多，主要表现在价格破坏、定价体制改变、进口增加、购买方式变化、流通自由化、产销同盟和信息化等方面的原因。对这些原因及其背景的分析也反映了当今日本经济的概貌和面临的课题。     

The mean-variance investment problem in a constrained financial market

This paper extends the mean-variance analysis and the two-fund separation theorem to a market with some constraints, such as, the incompleteness, prohibition of short-selling, and partial information, with stochastic interest rate, and with stochastic volatility for risky assets. By maximizing a quadratic utility of terminal wealth, we show that the efficient frontier for the problem is a straight line in the mean-standard-deviation diagram. The quadratic utility function exhibits mean-variance efficiency. Our results apply to portfolios of claims in a single period, multiperiod, and continuous time.     

循环经济发展中的障碍及对策思考

近几年我国循环经济的发展有了较多的实践,也总结出了很多宝贵的经验,但目前仍然存在一些制约循环经济发展的障碍性因素.文章剖析了我国循环经济发展中面对的主要障碍,并提出了几点针对性的建议,以期更好地推进循环经济的发展.