Directional Accuracy of Urban Consumers’ Inflation Forecasts in China

We evaluate the directional accuracy of inflation forecasts based on the survey data of urban savings account holders in China. By using a new market-timing test, we show that the urban consumers’ expectations of inflation are not a useful predictor of the overall consumer price index (CPI) and the urban household CPI (U-CPI) in China. However, after our in-depth analysis using the inflation rate of each category in the U-CPI basket, we find that the consumers’ forecasts are useful in predicting the movement of the residence component in the U-CPI basket since the third quarter of 2009.     

Stochastic frontier models with multiple time-varying individual effects

This paper proposes a flexible time-varying stochastic frontier model. Similarly to Lee and Schmidt [1993, In: Fried H, Lovell CAK, Schmidt S (eds) The measurement of productive efficiency: techniques and applications. Oxford University Press, Oxford], we assume that individual firms’ technical inefficiencies vary over time. However, the model, which we call the “multiple time-varying individual effects” model, is more general in that it allows multiple factors determining firm-specific time-varying technical inefficiencies. This allows the temporal pattern of inefficiency to vary over firms. The number of such factors can be consistently estimated. The model is applied to data on Indonesian rice farms, and the changes in the efficiency rankings of farms over time demonstrate the model’s flexibility.

Exchange rate pass-through to domestic producer prices: Evidence from Korean firm-level pricing survey

This note studies exchange rate pass-through to the prices of domestically produced goods, exploring the firm-level pricing survey conducted by the Bank of Korea. The data reveal the imported inputs channel of, as well as nonlinear and asymmetric, exchange rate-pass-through.     

The framework for factors affecting technology transfer for suppliers and buyers of technology in Korea

To gain an ongoing competitive advantage over other firms, a firm must acquire new technology to differentiate itself from others. This paper explores the technology transfer of technology for information technology equipment and establishes a comprehensive framework for the factors which affect on-time completion of technology transfer for suppliers and buyers according to technology transfer agreements. The technology transfer process is divided into the categorical stages that take place. Then, experts’ opinions are analysed through analytic hierarchy process to determine the influential factors affecting on-time completion of technology transfer. The results of this study should provide a basis for firms to evaluate on-time completion of technology transfer and a reference for the technology transfer process for both suppliers and buyers.     

Luxury brand advertising in Argentina: Changes following import restrictions

This study explores how the change of an economic policy affects advertising practices in Argentina. A content analysis of luxury brand ads placed in fashion magazines in Argentina was conducted to investigate changes in the ads in the wake of the import restrictions. The data supports the notion that some ads reflect societal changes. After the restrictions, ads were more likely to be factual, less likely to convey emotional messages, and ad appeals tended to be simple. Additionally, findings indicate that ads used different visual cues to evoke stronger exclusivity, luxuriousness, and global feelings. Ad components that are deeply rooted in local cultures, however, were not influenced by the restrictions.     

An analysis of the evolution of global financial network of the coordinated portfolio investment survey

In this study, we construct a directional global financial network using portfolio investment data from more than 200 countries during the first two decades of the 21st century and analyze the properties of the network. Through macroscopic analysis, we show that the network became denser and could be divided into central and peripheral groups. Microscopic analysis shows that, in addition to well-known financial-central countries, relatively less well-known countries played important roles in the global financial network. Further, each country's per capita GDP is positively correlated with its centrality in the network, and the correlation is stronger when measured with inbound investments than when measured with outbound investments.     

The role of observed and unobserved heterogeneity in the duration of unemployment

This paper studies the degree to which observable and unobservable worker characteristics account for the variation in the aggregate duration of unemployment. I model the distribution of unobserved worker heterogeneity as time varying to capture the interaction of latent attributes with changes in labor-market conditions. Unobserved heterogeneity is the main explanation for the duration dependence of unemployment hazards. Both cyclical and low-frequency variations in the mean duration of unemployment are mainly driven by one subgroup: workers who, for unobserved reasons, stay unemployed for a long time. In contrast, changes in the composition of observable characteristics of workers have negligible effects.