中国房地产业重见曙光

2007年4季度以来，由于政府的严厉措施、尤其是货币供应的收紧，大多数城市的住房成交量有所下降。市场对于2008年过度紧缩的忧虑导致了近几个月房地产股的大跌。然而，近期的迹象表明，住房部门受到的约束正在放松。这种情况下，上海市场开始回暖，出现了量价齐升的局面。     

IS THE REAL INTEREST RATE REALLY UNSTABLE?

If nominal interest rates have a unit root, but inflation and inflation forecast errors do not, ex-ante real interest rates are argued to have a unit root and are therefore nonstationary. I show that empirical tests for nonstationarity of real interest rates using such a deductive method can be misleading when the stationary inflation forecast errors are large relative to the variation of nominal interest rates.     

AN EXAMINATION OF MERGER SYNERGISM

The empirical research discussed in this paper measures the synergistic effects of mergers on the stockholders of the acquiring and acquired firms. Synergism is defined as the incremental wealth to the shareholders of both merging firms due to the merger—net of any potential gains achievable through investors' personal diversification over the common stocks of the merging firms. Three types of mergers are identified and studied—nonconglomerate, conglomerate with increasing financial leverage, and conglomerate with decreasing financial leverage. The results indicate that these types of mergers are affected differently by the combination. Moreover, the evidence suggests operational and/or financial synergism.     

Frontline service employees’ customer-related social stressors, emotional exhaustion, and service recovery performance: customer orientation as a moderator

This study investigates the structural relationships among customer-related social stressors (disproportionate customer expectation, ambiguous customer expectation, disliked customers, and customers?? verbal aggression), emotional exhaustion, and service recovery performance, with customer orientation (CO) serving as a moderator between customer-related social stressors and emotional exhaustion as well as emotional exhaustion and service recovery performance. The study uses data collected from a survey of 1,014 frontline service employees in Korea??s tourism service sectors. The results indicate that customer-related social stressors positively influence emotional exhaustion; emotional exhaustion negatively influences service recovery performance; and CO acts as a moderator. CO moderates both the effects of customer-related social stressors on emotional exhaustion and those of emotional exhaustion on service recovery performance, by weakening the effects for higher CO employees. This study contributes to both theory and practice by combining the four constructs of customer-related social stressors, emotional exhaustion, service recovery performance, and CO in addition to examining their relationships while focusing on customer-related factors.     

Competition in the Korean Internet Portal Market: Network Effects, Profit, and Market Efficiency

Internet portals serve as platforms for coordinating advertisements, content, and user markets. We model portal structure with South Korean market data to explain network effects and other competition factors. We also analyze network effects on profit and market efficiency. The results indicate a negative network effect from banner advertisements in the user market, which is countered by a network effect from content provision. In the advertising market, the network effect from user demand is positively identified, which explains profit making through increased user visits. Furthermore, we show that network effects due to market concentration result in increases in consumer surplus.     

Mitigating the Challenges of Partner Knowledge Diversity While Enhancing Research & Development (R&D) Alliance Performance: The Role of Alliance Governance Mechanisms

This article explores the answers to the following unresolved research question: How do firms mitigate the collaboration challenges associated with partner knowledge diversity and enhance alliance performance? The study provides an alliance performance enhancing framework by identifying two types of partner knowledge diversity: (1) technology base diversity and (2) R&D process experience diversity, and links them with R&D alliance performance. Additionally, the moderating effects of the two types of alliance governance mechanisms (i.e., interactive and contractual mechanisms) were examined to investigate which alliance governance mechanism is conducive to mitigate the collaboration challenges and enhance alliance performance. Using a data set of 316 alliances in the biopharmaceuticals industry, the study found that a moderate degree (not too low or high) of technology base diversity between alliance partners contributes more to R&D alliance performance. Similarly, there was also an inverted U-shaped relationship between R&D process experience diversity and alliance performance; too much diversity in R&D process experience may increase the likelihood of partner opportunism, and therefore negatively affect alliance performance. Additionally, the results showed that alliance governance mechanisms played different roles in alliance collaboration; while the contractual alliance mechanisms help reduce relational uncertainty (e.g., opportunism), the interactive mechanisms promoting a more intensive interaction between partners mitigates task difficulty and facilitates complex technology activities. These findings extend the knowledge-based view (KBV) of strategic alliance and advance research on alliance governance design.     

Detections of changes in return by a wavelet smoother with conditional heteroscedastic volatility

In this paper, we propose two estimators, an integral estimator and a discretized estimator, for the wavelet coefficient of regression functions in nonparametric regression models with heteroscedastic variance. These estimators can be used to test the jumps of the regression function. The model allows for lagged-dependent variables and other mixing regressors. The asymptotic distributions of the statistics are established, and the asymptotic critical values are analytically obtained from the asymptotic distribution. We also use the test to determine consistent estimators for the locations of change points. The jump sizes and locations of change points can be consistently estimated using wavelet coefficients, and the convergency rates of these estimators are derived. We perform some Monte Carlo simulations to check the powers and sizes of the test statistics. Finally, we give practical examples in finance and economics to detect changes in stock returns and short-term interest rates using the empirical wavelet method.     

International capital mobility: regional versus global perspective

This paper examines the role of regional versus global savings in financing domestic investment to shed light on the role of financial globalization and regionalism in capital markets. Regression results based on six regions with 141 countries reveal that although the role of foreign (global or regional) saving has increased over time, there are regional differences: domestic saving is the major source of investment financing in North America with an increasing role of regional and global savings over time, while regional saving is the main source in Europe. Global saving has been the main source of investment financing in other regions where domestic and regional financial markets are not well developed. However, the role of regional saving has significantly increased in recent years in the Asia-Pacific and in Latin America. Regionalism such as financial and monetary cooperation is likely to have increased the role of regional saving.     

Population Structure and Housing Prices: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data

This study analyzes the relationship between the proportion of the economically active population aged 15–64 to total population and housing prices. A panel of 31 provinces in China from 2002 to 2014 is used in our analysis. We find empirical evidence that the impact of the population structure on housing-price growth increases as the population growth rates rise. This observation suggests that, to understand provincial housing price movements in China, one should consider the ratio of working-age population to total population in a province. The main policy implication is that Chinese policymakers need to ensure a moderated population growth to effectively promote stability in housing prices and the economy.