Return predictability and shareholders’ real options

This study re-interprets the properties of the residual income model by highlighting the shareholders’ abandonment (liquidation or adaptation) option. We estimate the value of this real option as an explicit component of abnormal earnings in the residual income model and test the improvement in valuation after incorporating it into the model. Relative to the traditional specification of the residual income model, this real options model has a stronger predictive power for future abnormal stock returns. We also find that the superior return predictability of the real options model is pronounced in the set of firms with a high probability of exercising liquidation options (for example, those with low profitability, low growth opportunities, high underlying asset volatility, and low intangible assets), which is consistent with the importance of shareholders’ abandonment option in equity valuation. The results are robust to extensive sensitivity checks.     

Voluntary disclosure and corporate innovation

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - We examine whether a firm’s voluntary disclosures, proxied by management earnings forecasts, affect its innovation activity. A firm making more...     

Design of reforms with time‐inconsistent voters

Widespread agreement that a political reform is necessary is no guarantee that it is actually undertaken in a timely manner. There is often a delay before action is taken and reform packages that would be most efficient to implement all at once are often done only gradually. We propose a theoretical model explaining this behavior and show that when voters have present‐biased, time‐inconsistent preferences, gradualism can arise in equilibrium and be welfare‐enhancing. This is because without the possibility for gradualism, time‐inconsistent voters would delay implementing the reform even more. Using a citizen candidate model, we allow the agenda setter, who decides which reform schedule to put to vote, to be endogenously determined. We show that voters who are aware of their own time inconsistency can use the election of the agenda setter as a commitment device and appoint an agent who is more patient than the median voter in order to avoid full procrastination and to achieve efficiency‐maximizing gradualism.     

Development of telecommunication and broadcasting infrastructure indices at the global level

The importance of information and communication technology (ICT) in economic development has been increasing rapidly along with the Internet and mobile telecommunication networks. ICT development is becoming a main growth factor of many countries. As they realize the importance of the ICT industry, developing nations work to catch up with established economies. Therefore, many nations are formulating an ICT-enhanced policy. This paper introduces a number of telecommunication and broadcasting sub-indices, which include the fixed telephone network, the Internet, and mobile networks, which are aggregated into a composite Telecommunication Index (TI). The indices are computed using principal component analysis and human development type index methods. The country rankings, by different ICT-related indices, help identify the strengths and weaknesses of infrastructure development such that each country can foster economic growth. The performance of TI is compared with several other indices, such as the digital access, human development, and ArCo technology indices. The type of indices affects the country ratings. Results suggest that the parametric index approach may be preferred over those methods in which the subjective weighted summation of normalized variables used (non-parametric indices).     

The pricing of deposit insurance considering bankruptcy costs and closure policies

The paper aims to study the pricing issue of deposit insurance with explicit consideration of bankruptcy costs and closure policies. Full coverage from deposit insurance is imposed by many regulators to stabilize the banking system in the current financial crisis, despite of the potential moral hazard problems. We argue that bankruptcy cost is an important factor in pricing deposit insurance, especially when the insured institution is insolvent. Applying the isomorphic relationship between deposit insurance and put option, we first derive a closed-form solution for the pricing model with bankruptcy costs and closure policies. Then, we modify the barrier option approach to price the deposit insurance in which the bankruptcy cost is set as a function of asset return volatility and more realistic closure policies considering possible forbearance can be accounted for. The properties of the models are supported by numerical simulations and are consistent with the risk-based pricing scheme.     

Informed Trading of Mutual Funds: Evidence from Fund‐Underwriter Relationships

This paper investigates whether the relationship between investment banks and their affiliated funds helps the funds deliver superior performance due to the information advantage or whether it costs the funds due to the conflict of interest. Using firms with class‐action lawsuits, I examine whether underwriter‐affiliated funds can avoid a potential economic loss from the underwriting clients’ fraudulent activities. Consistent with the information advantage hypothesis, I find that affiliated funds reduce their stakes in underwritten firms before the disclosure of the firms’ misconduct. Additionally, I find that significant selling activity by the affiliated funds can predict the outcome of a potential lawsuit.