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81.
Spatial statistical modelling of insurance risk: a spatial epidemiological approach to car insurance
Spatial models, such as the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model, have long been used in epidemiology and disease mapping. A common research question in these subjects is modelling the number of disease events per region; here the BYM models provides a holistic framework for both covariates and dependencies between regions. We use these tools to assess the relative insurance risk associated with the policyholders geographical location. A Bayesian modelling approach is presented and an elastic net is used to reduce the large number of possible geographic covariates. The final inference is performed using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation. The model is applied to car insurance data from If P&C Insurance together with spatially referenced covariate data of high resolution, provided by Insightone. The entire analysis is performed using freely available R -packages. Including spatial dependence when modelling the number of claims significantly improves on the result obtained using ordinary generalised linear models. However, the support for adding a spatial component to the model for claims cost is weaker. 相似文献
82.
Erik Jones 《Industrial Relations Journal》2005,36(6):436-455
The process of European integration has reached the limits of European solidarity—both within the member states and between them. Increasingly, Europeans are demonstrating reluctance to accept common rules, to recognise common values, to protect common interests, or to promote common objectives. Instead, Europeans appear to be expressing many different and yet interrelated forms of disaffection. Voter abstention is high, security cooperation is weak, economic confidence is low, and support for either European enlargement or institutional reform is vanishing. To respond to this crisis, European politicians need to manage expectations better, they need to accept responsibility for public policy problems, they need to explain the limits of what Europe can do, and they need to search for new formulas to meet different national challenges with common European institutions. 相似文献
83.
Susan Hart Erik Jan Hultink Nikolaos Tzokas Harry R. Commandeur 《Journal of Product Innovation Management》2003,20(1):22-36
This article presents the results of a study on the evaluation criteria that companies use at several gates in the NPD process. The findings from 166 managers suggest that companies use different criteria at different NPD evaluation gates. While such criteria as technical feasibility, intuition and market potential are stressed in the early‐screening gates of the NPD process, a focus on product performance, quality, and staying within the development budget are considered of paramount importance after the product has been developed. During and after commercialization, customer acceptance and satisfaction and unit sales are primary considerations. In addition, based on the performance dimensions developed by Griffin and Page (1993), we derive patterns of use of various evaluative dimensions at the NPD gates. Our results show that while the market acceptance dimension permeates evaluation at all the gates in the NPD process, the financial dimension is especially important during the business analysis gate and after‐market launch. The product performance dimension figures strongly in the product and market testing gates. The importance of our additional set of criteria (i.e., product uniqueness, market potential, market chance, technical feasibility, and intuition) decreases as the NPD process unfolds. Overall the above pattern of dimensions' usage holds true for both countries in which we collected our data, and across firms of different sizes, holding different market share positions, with different NPD drivers, following different innovation strategies, and developing different types of new products. The results also are stable for respondents that differ in terms of expertise and functional background. The results of this study provide useful guidelines for project selection and evaluation purposes and therefore can be helpful for effective investment decision‐making at gate‐meetings and for project portfolio management. We elaborate on these guidelines for product developers and marketers wishing to employ evaluation criteria in their NPD gates, and we discuss directions for further research. 相似文献
84.
Strategies for best practice in research and technology institutes: an overview of a benchmarking exercise 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Many technology institutes have been criticised for their dislocation from, or lack of relevance to, industry. This paper provides an overview of a major benchmaking study which analyzed in depth the most successful technology institutes from eight nations (four in Europe and four in East Asia). Institutes selected for study met a criterion which included a combination of dynamism, relevance to industry, contribution to the national science and technology infrastructure, independent fund-raising capability, innovative organizational structures, and effective management. The paper examines the activities engaged in by the eight institutes, the principal challenges they face, and identifies the main success factors underlying their achievements. The paper attempts to illustrate practical, best practice strategies by showing how leading technology institutes have successfully contributed to their national system of innovation. To this end, success factors have been categorized into those factors which are under the direct control of the institutes (internal), which are outside of their influence (external), and those which can be affected to a lesser or greater extent. 相似文献
85.
Countries are linked through trade and for their mutual benefits they often group together. Consequently, trade blocs are formed in some form or another, examples of which are the EU, EFTA, ASEAN, NAFTA, and SAARC. Depending upon the form and the nature of the grouping, trade relations among countries obviously vary across the trade blocs. The pattern and the volume of trade of the participating countries are different and thus cause different impacts on the growth and development of the countries concerned. Also, the nature of integration changes over time. To examine the strength of integration within trade blocs, systemic measures of integration hitherto not available are formulated in an input–output framework. The measures are used, as a case study, to assess the inter-temporal variations in the degree of integration of SAARC. 相似文献
86.
In 1993 the Danish antitrust authority decided to gather and publish firm-specific transactions prices for two grades of ready-mixed concrete in three regions of Denmark. Following initial publication, average prices of reported grades increased by 15–20 percent within one year. We investigate whether this was due to a business upturn and/or capacity constraints, but argue that these seem to have little explanatory power. We conclude that a better explanation is that publication of prices allowed firms to reduce the intensity of oligopoly price competition and, hence, led to increased prices contrary to the aim of the authority. 相似文献
87.
88.
We use data from Germany, The Netherlands, Portugal and Spain to test for the effect of earnings variation on individual
earnings. We replicate estimates for the USA and find that the variance of earnings in an occupation affects individual wages
positively while the skewness of earnings has a negative effect. Both results are in conformity with wage compensation for
risk averse workers.
First version received: March 2001/Final version received: July 2002
We are grateful to two anonymous referees for valuable comments. 相似文献
89.
The applied econometrics of bivariate count data predominantly focus on a bivariate Poisson density with a correlation structure that is very restrictive. The main limitation is that this bivariate distribution excludes zero and negative correlation. This paper introduces a new model which allows for a more flexible correlation structure. To this end the joint density is decomposed by means of the multiplication rule in marginal and conditional densities. Simulation experiments and an application of the model to recreational data are presented. 相似文献
90.