Renewable and nonrenewable energy production and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: a hidden cointegration analysis

The objective of this article is to investigate the hypothesis of asymmetric effects between economic growth and renewable and nonrenewable energy production. To this end, both the linear cointegration and the hidden cointegration methodology are employed, with the latter allowing a straightforward delimitation of the data in an economically sensible way. We test for the presence of hidden cointegration across 12 sub-Saharan African countries spanning the period 1971–2011. The empirical results confirm the growth hypothesis for a subset of countries, suggesting that their growth could be adversely affected by conservation policies, while for a second subgroup of countries they confirm the conservation hypothesis, indicating that conservation policies could enhance the growth process in these countries. The differentiation of the results could be captured entirely by the linear approach, indicating that the lack of cointegration between renewable energy production and economic growth found in previous studies may be due to failures to properly delimit the nonlinearity property in the data.     

A test of the Wagner's hypothesis for the Fiji islands

In this article we examine Wagner's law for Fiji for the period 1970 to 2002. Using the Johansen (1988 Johansen, S. 1988. Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12: 231–54. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) test for cointegration, we find one cointegration relationship between national output and government expenditure. Using five different long run estimators, we find robust results on the impact of national income on government expenditure. The elasticity ranges from 1.36 to 1.44, implying that a 1% increase in income leads to a 1.36–1.44% increase in government expenditure. Moreover, we find that in the long run national income Granger causes government expenditure. While these results are consistent with Wagner's law, we warn policy makers that because Fiji's total debt stands at around 69% of GDP, in future the bulk of expenditure will go towards debt financing at the expense of productive sectors.     

Is there a unit root in the inflation rate? New evidence from panel data models with multiple structural breaks

In this article, we examine whether or not the inflation rate for 17 OECD countries can be modelled as a stationary process. We find that (1) conventional univariate unit root tests without any structural breaks generally reveal that the inflation rate contains a unit root; (2) the KPSS univariate test with multiple structural breaks reveals that for 10 out of 17 countries inflation is stationary; and (3) the KPSS panel unit root test reveals strong evidence for stationarity of the inflation rate for panels consisting of countries which were declared nonstationary by univariate tests.     

Modelling the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting System's Energy Consumption Under‐Coverage

The new data source for the Australian Energy Statistics, the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting System, does not require businesses using less than 200 terajoules to report their energy consumption. This results in a data gap in the total industry energy consumption. To estimate the gap, this study models business energy consumption using data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics' 2008–09 Energy, Water and Environment Survey and data from the 2008 to 2009 business activity statement unit record estimates. The article discusses the modelling approaches and methodological issues associated with the estimation of the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting System's energy consumption under‐coverage. It provides estimation results and suggestions for future research, based on available data.

     

Improving effectiveness of public service advertisements to prevent texting and driving of American youth

This study examines and explores the interplay of theory (regulatory focus fit and implementation intentions) and emerging technology (interactive advertising and social media ad referrals) to segment viewers more effectively and thus increases the response efficacy of public service advertisements (PSAs). Advertising, in general, and PSAs, in particular, are both entering a new era as traditional delivery platforms (print, TV, and radio) are increasingly giving way to new media (the internet and mobile smartphones), which are more dynamic as they can allow adaptability and interactivity. Using a between-subjects design, this study examined the effects of regulatory focus fit on PSA response from both traditional and interactive delivery methods. Results indicated that regulatory focus ads (promotion focus in a texting and donation context) have a positive effect on attitude toward the ads. Results also indicated that a regulatory focus ad (prevention focus) using an interactive delivery method has a positive effect on behavioral intentions. Implementation intentions analysis also indicated positive results for behavior from PSA outcomes. The findings of this study are expected to be useful for practitioners who are designing PSAs and advertisements to prevent texting and driving.     

ARE OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS TRANSITORY? NEW EVIDENCE FROM 24 CHINESE PROVINCES

Abstract. The fact that an occurrence of a unit root in real output is inconsistent with the notion that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend makes this an important topic for empirical investigation. We examine this issue for 24 Chinese provinces using the recently developed Lagrange multiplier panel unit root test which allows for a structural break. Our main finding is that real gross domestic product (GDP) and real GDP per capita for Chinese provinces are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend.     

Skill-Specific rather than General Education: A Reason for US–Europe Growth Differences?

In this paper, we develop a model of technology adoption and economic growth in which households optimally obtain either a concept-based, general education or a skill-specific, vocational education. General education is costly to obtain, but enables workers to operate new production technologies. Firms weigh the cost of adopting and operating new technologies against increased profits and optimally choose the level of adoption. We show that an economy whose policies favor vocational education will grow slower in equilibrium than one that favors general education. More importantly, the gap between their growth rates will increase with the growth rate of available technology. By characterizing the optimal Ramsey education policy we also demonstrate that the optimal subsidy for general education increases with the growth rate of available technology. Our theory suggests that European education policies that favored specialized, vocational education might have worked well, both in terms of growth rates and welfare, during the 1960s and 1970s when available technologies changed slowly. However, in the information age of the 1980s and 1990s when new technologies emerged at a more rapid pace, they might have contributed to an increased growth gap relative to the United States.     

Var and Impulse-Response: A Note

Journal of Quantitative Economics -     

DO PERMANENT SHOCKS EXPLAIN INCOME LEVELS? A COMMON CYCLE–COMMON TREND ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL INCOME LEVELS FOR CHINA

Abstract. In this paper, we analyse per capita income levels of China's three main regions: the western region, the eastern region and the central region using common cycle and common trend tests. Our main contribution is that we impose the common cycle and common trend restrictions in decomposing shocks into permanent and transitory components. We find that: (i) there is evidence for two cointegrating relationships and one common cycle; and (ii) the variance decomposition analysis of shocks provides evidence that over short horizons, permanent shocks play a large role in explaining variations in regional per capita incomes.     

Is Asian per capita GDP panel stationary?

The goal of this paper is to examine whether per capita GDP for 15 Asian countries is panel stationary. We apply a panel test for stationarity that allows for multiple structural breaks developed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (Econ J 8: 159–179, 2005). Our main findings are: (1) when we apply conventional tests, such as the ADF and KPSS univariate tests without structural breaks, we find little evidence for stationarity; (2) when we apply the KPSS univariate test with multiple structural breaks, we find evidence of stationarity for 10 out of 15 countries; and (3) when we apply the KPSS panel test with multiple structural breaks, we find overwhelming evidence of panel stationarity of per capita real GDP for different panels of Asian countries.