The Performance Effects of Modular Production in the Apparel Industry

This article identifies and explains differences in performance between two widely used alternative work methods-module and bundle production—in the basics sector of the apparel industry. This research is based on interviews with managers and surveys of worker attitudes and perceptions. We find that a team production system in the apparel industry, called modules, performs better than the traditional bundle system on such measures as quality, costs, and responsiveness to retailers. Modules also perform better than bundles in reducing work-in-process inventory and throughput time. We argue that performance improvements are realized through coordination among the team members as a result of their ability to self-regulate work, eliminate bottlenecks, resolve conflicts, help one another solve problems, and make improvements in the production process.     

DEPOSIT GUARANTEES AND THE BURST OF THE JAPANESE BUBBLE ECONOMY

This paper examines the current status of deposit guarantees in Japan and how they have functioned during the burst of the bubble economy in the first half of the 1990s. During this period, the Ministry of Finance has had to depart from its "no failure" policy and declare depository institutions insolvent. The resources of Japan's most important deposit insurance agency—the Deposit Insurance Corporation—were exhausted as of late 1995. The other deposit insurance agency for small specialized depositories also is technically insolvent. Many of the problems that Japan's deposit guarantee system experienced are similar to those experienced in the United States during the 1980s.     

Adjusting for Beta Bias: An Assessment of Alternate Techniques: A Note

This paper tests the effectiveness of techniques proposed by: Scholes-Williams; Dimson; Fowler, Rorke, and Jog; and Cohen, Hawawini, Maier, Schwartz, and Whitcomb to control for bias in beta estimates from thin trading and price adjustment delays. Each technique produces beta estimates that reduce the amount of this bias, but the amount of reduction in the best case is only 29%.     

COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF CONSERVATION PROGRAMS: THE HOOD RIVER EXPERIMENT

Economic cost-effectiveness analysis is a systematic approach to assessing benefits and costs associated with different actions. This analysis, as applied to energy conservation programs, is complicated greatly by the existence of intangible benefits and costs. A further complication occurs when the input values are uncertain. Such inputs include the useful lives of measures installed, the appropriate discount rate, and the expected levels of savings. This paper shows how one can incorporate input uncertainty and some intangibles into the cost-effectiveness analysis calculations. The Hood River Conservation Experiment provides the framework for analyzing these issues and serves as a pilot program for future conservation implementation.     

Term Structure Movements and Pricing Interest Rate Contingent Claims

This paper derives an arbitrage-free interest rate movements model (AR model). This model takes the complete term structure as given and derives the subsequent stochastic movement of the term structure such that the movement is arbitrage free. We then show that the AR model can be used to price interest rate contingent claims relative to the observed complete term structure of interest rates. This paper also studies the behavior and the economics of the model. Our approach can be used to price a broad range of interest rate contingent claims, including bond options and callable bonds.     

Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market

An intertemporal general equilibrium model relates financial asset returns to movements in aggregate output. The model is a standard neoclassical growth model with serial correlation in aggregate output. Changes in aggregate output lead to attempts by agents to smooth consumption, which affects the required rate of return on financial assets. Since aggregate output is serially correlated and hence predictable, the theory suggests that stock returns can be predicted based on rational forecasts of output. The empirical results confirm that stock returns are a predictable function of aggregate output and also support the accompanying implications of the model.     

Long‐Term Return Reversals: Overreaction or Taxes?

Long‐term reversals in U.S. stock returns are better explained as the rational reactions of investors to locked‐in capital gains than an irrational overreaction to news. Predictors of returns based on the overreaction hypothesis have no power, while those that measure locked‐in capital gains do, completely subsuming past returns measures that are traditionally used to predict long‐term returns. In data from Hong Kong, where investment income is not taxed, reversals are nonexistent, and returns are not forecastable either by traditional measures or by measures based on the capital gains lock‐in hypothesis that successfully predict U.S. returns.     

Banking Competition,Collateral Constraints,and Optimal Monetary Policy

We analyze optimal monetary policy in a model with two distinct financial frictions: monopolistically competitive banks that charge endogenous lending spreads, and collateral constraints. We show that welfare maximization is equivalent to stabilization of four goals: inflation, output gap, the “consumption gap” between borrowers and savers, and a “housing gap” that measures the distortion in the distribution of the collateralizable asset between both groups. Collateral constraints create a trade‐off between stabilization goals. Following both productivity and financial shocks, and relative to strict inflation targeting, the optimal policy implies sharper movements in the policy rate, aimed primarily at reducing fluctuations in asset prices and hence in borrowers' net worth. The policy trade‐offs become amplified as banking competition increases, due to the fall in lending spreads and the resulting increase in borrowers' leverage.     

Real Earnings Management in Sales

We surveyed 1,638 sales executives across 40 countries regarding their companies’ likelihood of asking sales to perform real earnings management (REM) actions when earnings pressure exists. Using this information, which we refer to as companies’ REM propensities, we study how company characteristics and environmental conditions relate to the responses received. The use of cash‐flow incentives for sales personnel and the distribution of interfunctional power in favor of finance rather than sales are both associated with companies’ REM propensities. In addition, we show that sales executives preemptively change their behaviors in anticipation of top management's REM requests. Sales executives working for public companies and companies in the United States reported higher levels of REM propensity. The data also support an association between REM propensity and finance–sales conflict. These findings and others are compared and contrasted with existing empirical and survey‐based research on REM throughout the paper.     

How Do Firms Respond to Political Uncertainty? Evidence from U.S. Gubernatorial Elections

We examine the joint response to political uncertainty along two margins: changes in real activity and voluntary disclosure. We focus on within-firm variation in exposure to ex ante competitive U.S. gubernatorial elections using data on preelection poll margins and firms’ state exposures. Despite real activity falling in the years leading up to a close election, we find that voluntary disclosure increases both in frequency and content, including mentions of risk in filings that reference states holding elections. Our tests use a decomposition of 8-K filings into real activity and voluntary disclosure to address the endogenous complementarity between these two responses. These results hold when using alternative ex ante measures of political uncertainty based on term-limited incumbents, historically competitive offices, or state legislature gridlock. Both effects of political uncertainty are stronger for firms in highly regulated industries and weaker for those least exposed to the local market, linking the real activity and disclosure responses to uncertainty.