Optimal Aggregation of Money Supply Forecasts: Accuracy,Profitability and Market Efficiency

We present a general procedure for aggregating expert forecasts which exploits regularities in the structure of information within the forecaster population. Specific information structures lead to aggregation methods which adjust for additive bias, differences in individual accuracy, and correlation among forecasts. As an application, we construct composite predictions of the weekly change in the money supply from forecasts made by twenty major securities dealers, for which high positive correlation is found to be a significant characteristic. Due to instability in the information structure, our methods cannot improve on the accuracy of a simple average in this case. However, they do capture information about the correlation among money supply forecasts which is not fully impounded in short-term interest rates. Forecasts from our models accurately predict the direction of price changes for Treasury bills and Treasury bill futures after a money supply announcement.     

Not All Related Party Transactions (RPTs) Are the Same: Ex Ante Versus Ex Post RPTs

Related party transactions (RPTs) are potential means for insiders to expropriate outside shareholders via self‐dealing. There are, however, possible benefits to these arrangements for outside shareholders. We find that the overall volume of disclosed RPTs is generally not significantly associated with shareholder wealth as measured by operating profitability or Tobin's Q. However, the results for total RPT volume obscure that ex ante RPTs, transactions that predate a counterparty becoming a related party, are innocuous at worst in terms of their association with operating profitability and significantly positively associated with Tobin's Q whereas ex post RPTs, transactions initiated after a counterparty becomes a related party, are significantly negatively associated with operating profitability. Ex post RPTs also result in significant share price declines when first disclosed and are associated with an increased likelihood that a firm will enter financial distress or deregister its securities. These results are consistent with ex post RPTs serving as means for insiders to expropriate outside shareholders.     

Robustness and U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation

We study how a concern for robustness modifies a policymaker's incentive to experiment. A policymaker has a prior over two submodels of inflation‐unemployment dynamics. One submodel implies an exploitable trade‐off, the other does not. Bayes' law gives the policymaker an incentive to experiment. The policymaker fears that both submodels and his prior probability distribution over them are misspecified. We compute decision rules that are robust to misspecifications of each submodel and of the prior distribution over submodels. We compare robust rules to ones that Cogley, Colacito, and Sargent (2007) computed assuming that the models and the prior distribution are correctly specified. We explain how the policymaker's desires to protect against misspecifications of the submodels, on the one hand, and misspecifications of the prior over them, on the other, have different effects on the decision rule.     

On the Optimal Relation between the Properties of Managerial and Financial Reporting Systems

We develop a theoretical model of the firm that links properties (stewardship vs. valuation focus) of financial reporting regimes with the informational properties of optimal managerial accounting systems. We show that, contrary to the standard textbook proposition, properties of management and financial accounting systems are not independent. Significantly, we provide an explicit connection between exogenous and observable properties of a firm's financial reporting system and the quality of the managerial accounting system on which manager(s) base real economic decisions. As the quality of those economic decisions can also be inferred from publicly available data, our theory generates new opportunities for empirical managerial accounting research on large nonproprietary samples. Further, by being able to identify enhanced performance due to improved managerial accounting information, our theory provides opportunities to gain a better understanding of the link between particular managerial accounting practices and the quality of the information produced.     

Management by the Numbers: A Formal Approach to Deriving Informational and Distributional Properties of “Unmanaged” Earnings

We explore the theoretical relation between earnings and market returns as well as the properties of earnings frequency distributions under the assumption that managers use unbiased accounting information to sequentially decide on real options their firms have and report generated earnings truthfully, with the market pricing the firm based on those reported earnings. We generate benchmarks against which empirically observed earnings‐returns relations and aggregate earnings distributions can be evaluated. This parsimonious model shows a coherent set of results: reported losses are less persistent than reported gains, decision making diminishes the S‐shaped market response to earnings and earnings relate to returns asymmetrically in the way documented by Basu [1997]. Furthermore, the implied frequency distribution of aggregate earnings is neither symmetric nor necessarily single‐peaked. Instead, it may exhibit a kink at zero and look similar to the plots reported by Burgstahler and Dichev [1997]. However, within our model, none of these phenomena are due to reporting noise, bias, or some undesirable strategic managerial behavior. They are the natural consequences of using past earnings as the basis for value increasing managerial decision making that in turn generates the future earnings on which future decisions will be based.     

Why Do U.S. Firms Hold So Much More Cash than They Used To?

The average cash-to-assets ratio for U.S. industrial firms more than doubles from 1980 to 2006. A measure of the economic importance of this increase is that at the end of the sample period, the average firm can retire all debt obligations with its cash holdings. Cash ratios increase because firms' cash flows become riskier. In addition, firms change: They hold fewer inventories and receivables and are increasingly R&D intensive. While the precautionary motive for cash holdings plays an important role in explaining the increase in cash ratios, we find no consistent evidence that agency conflicts contribute to the increase.     

DEMAND RESPONSE TO COST SHARING UNDER MANAGED HEALTH CARE

We use 1996 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to examine the demand response of ambulatory medical services to demand-side cost sharing under managed health care and find that demand response to a coinsurance rate is less than that under conventional plans. To address the selection problem, only respondents who were offered a single insurance plan from private establishments are studied. Our results show that managed care, relying on different approaches to ration, has blunted demand response. This suggests that in a managed care context, increasing demand-side cost sharing will reduce costs to plans mainly by shifting costs to enrollees. ( JEL I11)     

A LANDFILL CLOSURE AND HOUSING VALUES

The United States disposes roughly 60% of the municipal solid waste it generates each year in solid waste disposal facilities, commonly known as landfills. Hedonic pricing studies have estimated the external costs of landfills on neighboring housing markets, but the literature is silent on what happens to property values after the landfill closes. Original housing price data collected both before and after a landfill closure are used to estimate how a landfill closure affects neighboring property values. Results of both a hedonic pricing model and a repeat-sales estimator are used in the analysis. ( JEL H42, H72, Q51, Q53, R21)