Evaluation of Black-Scholes and GARCH Models Using Currency Call Options Data

This paper empirically examines the performance of Black-Scholes and Garch-M call option pricing models using call options data for British Pounds, Swiss Francs and Japanese Yen. The daily exchange rates exhibit an overwhelming presence of volatility clustering, suggesting that a richer model with ARCH/GARCH effects might have a better fit with actual prices. We perform dominant tests and calculate average percent mean squared errors of model prices. Our findings indicate that the Black-Scholes model outperforms the GARCH models. An implication of this result is that participants in the currency call options market do not seem to price volatility clusters in the underlying process.     

Estimating the magnitude of capital flight due to abnormal pricing in international trade: The Russia–USA case

Governmental and international lending agencies, as well as private sector firms, who engage in international trade, have long been concerned with detecting and determining the magnitude of abnormal pricing in international trade. To detect such abnormal pricings, we present a framework analyzing millions of import/export transactions between the U.S. and Russia. The objectives of this study are to estimate the economic impact of over-invoiced/under-invoiced Russian imports/exports from/to the U.S. and to determine if capital movement/capital flight through trade is due to money laundering, tax evasion or some sort of portfolio consideration. Our results lead us to conclude that capital movement through trade in this case can be attributed to either money laundering and/or tax evasion.     

International briefing 6: Training and development in the United States

Increasingly, training and development is playing an important and strategic role in the economic success of US organisations (Marquardt, 1999, Tannenbaum and Yukl, 1992). US organisations recognise that they now operate in a new global economy, an economy which involves the use of advanced technologies and increased responsiveness to customers’ needs. It is becoming one that requires greater and greater innovation and flexibility in production, service delivery and market know‐how. American firms realise more than ever that employee knowledge gained through training and development has become a strategic necessity and more and more the source of strategic advantage (Drucker, 1994).     

Testing the collective model of household labor supply: Evidence from China

This paper tests the collective model against the unitary model by estimating the labor supply of both the husband and wife. Using data from a developing country, China, we reject the hypothesis that distribution factors have no effect on household time allocation decisions. On the other hand, we cannot reject restrictions implied by the collective model. Thus the unitary model is not supported while the collective model gains credence in this study. Our findings suggest that the traditional patriarchalism in Chinese families is giving ways to power sharing between spouses.     

Predicting crude oil prices: Replication of the empirical results in “What do we learn from the price of crude oil?”

In addition to their theoretical analysis of the joint determination of oil futures prices and oil spot prices, Alquist and Kilian (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25(4), 539–573) compare the out‐of‐sample accuracy of the random walk forecast with that of forecasts based on oil futures prices and other predictors. The results of my replication exercise are very similar to the original forecast accuracy results, but the relative accuracy of the random walk forecast and the futures‐based forecast changes when the sample is extended to August 2016, consistent with the results of several other recent studies by Kilian and co‐authors.     

Not telling the whole story: Teen deception in purchasing

Teenagers may engage in consumption behaviors that their parents may not approve of, as one way of asserting independence. Such behaviors may lead teens to attempt to deceive their parents about purchases. This research examined teens’ tendency toward such deception. The authors conceptualize deception as being related to the family communication environment and the shopping context in which it takes place. Some family communication environments may stifle open discussion of products and purchases, thereby encouraging teen deception. Moreover, certain patterns of family communication may socialize teens to focus on standards exogenous to the family that, in turn, lead to a greater propensity to deceive. Susceptibility to normative peer influence, the extent of television viewing, and teen materialism may partially mediate the effects of the family communication environment. Except for television viewing, the authors’ predictions are generally supported by the data collected from a sample of high school students. Terry Bristol (terry.bristol@asu.edu; Ph.D., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University) is an assistant professor of marketing in the School of Global Management and Leadership at Arizona State University. His research interests are in the areas of consumer socialization, social influence, and brand and promotions management. His work has been published in theJournal of Retailing, the Journal of Advertising, the Journal of Consumer Psychology, theJournal of Consumer Affairs, and elsewhere. Tamara F. Mangleburg (tmangle@fau.edu; Ph.D., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University) is an associate professor of marketing in the College of Business at Florida Atlantic University. Her research interests include consumer socialization, family decision-making, and self-concept effects on persuasion. She has published work in these areas in theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, the Journal of Retailing, theJournal of Advertising, the Journal of Business Research, and in other outlets.     

The interplay of effectuation and causation in decision making: Russian SMEs under institutional uncertainty

The institutional context of Russia and the recent regime of foreign trade sanctions makes it a natural laboratory to study change in decision making regarding the international activities of SMEs. This research explores how the increased institutional uncertainty is evaluated, enacted and responded to by SMEs that are heavily involved in relations with international suppliers. This longitudinal multiple-case study reveals that although firms simultaneously use both causation and effectuation in their decision making, an increase of institutional uncertainty boosts effectuation. The study shows that the intensity of both types of decision-making logic varies along the studied period in accordance to changing perceptions of institutional uncertainty. Also, the studied firms use effectuation logic differently enabling us to distinguish two types of effectuation with contrasting performance implications: opportunity-driven effectuation and survival effectuation.     

Does trade creation by social and business networks hold in services?

Recent literature on the border effect has shown that the intensity of trade in goods is positively correlated with the migration stocks between any pair of countries/regions. The number of references for business networks is more limited, but they are also related with a reduction on information costs. In this article we investigate whether such a relation holds also for Spanish domestic trade flows in consumer services. To this end, we use a gravity model rooted in the Dixit–Stiglitz–Krugman theoretical framework and a unique data set on interregional trade flows for some of the main tourism service sectors, namely, accommodations and restaurants. Our industry-specific analysis finds a large positive effect for restaurants but a more limited effect for accommodations. Forces driving the demand in each sector explain this result and suggest the idea that although social networks can act as a substitute of firms in some sectors at the same time they can enhance trade flows in other sectors. We perform the same kind of analysis with a data set (obtained by a similar method) for domestic trade in goods and discover a different response to social and business networks. Finally, we treat the potential endogeneity by taking the instrumental-variable approach of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator and thus obtain consistent results.     

overview of OR techniques for airline revenue management

With the increasing interest in decision support systems and the continuous advance of computer science, revenue management is a discipline which has received a great deal of interest in recent years. Although revenue management has seen many new applications throughout the years, the main focus of research continues to be the airline industry. Ever since LITTLEWOOD (1972) first proposed a solution method for the airline revenue management problem, a variety of solution methods have been introduced. In this paper we give an overview of the solution methods presented throughout the literature.     

Financial literacy and high‐cost borrowing: Exploring the mechanism

Recent studies have suggested that financial literacy is an important determinant of informed borrowing decisions. Despite the evidence that financially literate consumers are less likely to use alternative financial services, the mechanism through which financial literacy discourages demand for alternative financial services has yet to be fully understood. The previous studies proposed several explanations, such as the ability to undertake complex financial calculations and understand contract terms, to link financial literacy to savvy credit choices. This study evaluates the validity of this argument by examining whether or not financial knowledge plays a greater role in borrowing decisions where consumers are forced to rely on financial knowledge. It is assumed that consumers in an information‐sparse environment have a greater incentive to utilize financial knowledge to infer the hidden cost of borrowing contracts. To test this argument, this study examines the extent to which information availability moderates the negative impact of financial knowledge on rent‐to‐own transactions. Information content is captured by state‐level disclosure mandates for rental contracts, given that consumer in a loosely regulated state are exposed to less pricing information. The results illustrate that limited information strengthens the negative association between financial knowledge and rent‐to‐own transactions. This confirms the previous arguments that consumers are active thinkers who refer to financial knowledge to estimate the overall cost of borrowing.