Forecasting telecommunications data with linear models

For telecommunication companies to successfully manage their business, companies rely on mapping future trends and usage patterns. However, the evolution of telecommunications technology and systems in the provision of services renders imperfections in telecommunications data and impinges on a company's’ ability to properly evaluate and plan their business. International Telecommunication Union (ITU) Recommendation E.507 provides a selection of econometric models for forecasting these trends. However, no specific guidance is given. This paper evaluates whether simple extrapolation techniques in Recommendation E.507 can generate accurate forecasts. Standard forecast error statistics—mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), median absolute percentage error and percentage better—show the ARIMA, Holt and Holt-D models provide better forecasts than a random walk and other linear extrapolation methods.     

Value relevance of value-at-risk disclosure

The SEC issued FRR No. 48 in 1997 to enhance public disclosure of firms’ exposures to market risk. We examine whether the quantitative value-at-risk (VAR) estimates disclosed by 81 non-financial firms during the period 1997–2002 are value-relevant using the earnings-returns relation. The empirical results indicate that high VAR is associated with weaker earnings-returns relation. Further analysis shows that VAR is positively and significantly associated with future stock return volatility. Our evidence suggests that investors perceive the earnings of firms with substantial market risk exposure to be less persistent, and adjust the future abnormal earnings for the higher risk exposure. Thus, this results in a lower expected rate of return.

纵向分解中国食品的安全监管问题——TBT与第三类交易成本分析

文章通过建立一个以交易成本为分析工具的规范性框架,探讨我国加强食品(包括国产食品和进口食品)安全监管与交易成本变动的强弱关系,寻找突破TBT重围的出路。文章先将分析角度定位于宏观组织——国家,然后从组织成员(企业)这个层次对交易成本进行分解,运用"第三类交易成本"模型,解析交易成本与"战略性投资"的数理关系。主要结论是:加强食品安全监管是降低食品、农产品出口交易成本、突破TBT障碍的必经之路,也是提高国民生活品质、扭转农产品贸易逆差局面的有效途径。     

保证生态流量下小型梯级水电站发电稳定性的研究

本文针对目前小型梯级水电站面临的一系列问题诸如发电不稳定、对下游生态环境影响大等问题,提出了一种新的优化调度方式——在保证生态流量下以整个梯级水电站发电稳定为最优准则,同时在发电的时候充分利用小型水电站启停灵活的特点,使水电站出力与当地的用电情况相适应,以达到简化调度的目的。     

提升中国制造业自主创新效率研究

通过DEA-Tobit二阶段模型的Malmquist指数法研究发现：危机后我国制造业创新效率总体呈上升趋势,技术进步主要得益于规模效率提升而非纯技术进步变化。另外,企业经营绩效、制度因素以及企业规模对制造业自主创新效率呈显著的正相关;政府干预和技术引进与消化吸收因素对制造业技术创新效率呈正相关,但未通过显著性检验。因此,提升我国制造业创新效率应从减少政府的直接干预、完善市场制度、做大企业规模以及激发企业创新积极性方面入手。     

基于民生改善的城镇化及质量提升问题探讨

近几年来,我国城镇化的发展速度非常快,在扩大内需、促进经济结构调整方面发挥了重要作用,但是,我国的城镇化面临比较复杂的状况,其中,城镇化的发展速度和质量不相适应就是一个比较突出的问题,根本原因在于城乡二元经济和社会结构的显著性,致使以民生改善水平为标志的城镇化质量难以得到保证。文章提出应回归城镇化的目的——改善民生,剖析城镇化进程中存在的民生改善问题,探寻我国新型城镇化质量提升的重要路径。     

When the Cat's Away: A Content Analysis of MNC Overseas Recruitment Print Ads

This study examines discrimination in the overseas recruitment print ads of Multinational National Corporations (MNCs) in a lax regulatory environment, Singapore. Institutionalization theory suggests that in a weakly regulated environment, MNC affiliates would tend to adopt the less stringent requirements. With the lack of a strong legal framework in the host country, the home country's legal and cultural imperatives would be more salient, suggesting differences in discrimination as a function of home country imperatives. Some 1122 recruitment print ads of U.S., U.K., and Japanese affiliates of MNCs were examined. While discrimination was found in the print ads of all organizations, U.S. affiliates were least discriminatory, followed by Japan and U.K. affiliates. When Singapore firms were included, they were found to be least discriminatory. However, Singapore firms became more discriminatory when the request for a recent photograph was considered in the discrimination index. Implications of the findings are discussed and suggestions for future research advanced.     

物流金融:破解中小企业融资难的新平台

中小企业融资难是一个世界性难题,由于其自身的原因按传统的方式获得资金已不能满足其发展的需要。本文以物流金融为平台破解中小企业的融资困境,把金融机构、物流企业和中小企业联系起来,达到多方共赢。     

基于四象限分类法的采购战略的选择

本文通过四象限分类模型,将采购物品分为关键物品、瓶颈物品、常规物品和杠杆物品。同时引入了供应商知觉模型,将供应商对采购商的知觉分为核心型客户、发展型客户、边缘型客户以及剥削型客户。在将采购物品分类模型与供应商知觉模型相结合的基础上,分别阐述了四种类型采购物品的采购对策,理想供应商的选择,以及采购商应如何操作等问题。     

造船企业与船用设备企业协调发展

造船企业由于其产品大型化、复杂化、综合化等特点,在生产过程中涉及到钢铁、机械、电子、化工等诸多企业,几乎国民经济所有部门的产品都构成了造船企业的直接或间接投入要素,因此造船企业具有较强的企业关联特征.这一方面表明,造船企业的发展可以对其它相关企业的发展形成广泛而明显的带动作用,同时另一方面,造船企业的发展也极大地依赖于其它相关企业的发展,特别是船用设备企业的发展.