Tax Reform,Sector‐specific Labor Supply and Welfare Effects*

This paper focuses in particular on the 1992 tax reform in Norway. In this reform the top marginal tax rates were cut considerably. We find that the impact on overall labor supply is rather modest, but these modest changes shadow for stronger sectoral changes. The tax reform stimulated the women to shift their labor from the public to the private sector and to work longer hours. A calculation of mean compensated variation, calculated within the framework of a random utility model, shows that the richest households benefited far more from the 1992 tax reform than did the poorest households.     

Forecasting currency crises by fractal analysis techniques

New approaches to currency crisis prediction are considered on the basis of the intensity of currency index fluctuations estimated by fractal analysis techniques. The ranges of currency index fluctuations within which the market remains stable have been defined. The experimental validation of results is exemplified by currency crises in developing countries and transition economies.     

An adjustment procedure for predicting systematic risk

This paper looks at the currently available beta adjustment techniques and suggests a multiple root-linear model to adjust for the regression tendency of betas. Our empirical investigate on indicates that cross-sectional betas are not normally distributed, but their distribution tends to normal after a square-root transformation. The evidence from the Box-Cox regression model and the multivariate normality observed among betas after the transformation, make the functional form of our model correct. Also, we observe that the disturbance term of the multiple root-linear model is well behaved. These findings make the ordinary least squares estimates unbiased and efficient. Finally, the mean square and extreme errors are found to be lower when our adjustment procedure is used vis-à-vis the existing procedures.     

On the nature of deferred income taxes*

Abstract. The topic of deferred income taxes has generated considerable controversy. This paper observes that much of this controversy centers on the contingent nature of income taxes. It reviews the similarity between the firm's income tax liabilities and a European call option written on the firm's pretax value. From this perspective, deferred taxes are shown to effectively alter the exercise price of the call option held by the government, thus affecting the value of the firm's debt and equity claims. Additional results are obtained from the model by valuing the tax liabilities and the firm's financial claims via an exact option pricing formula. Finally, the paper shows that the model is robust to some of its underlying assumptions. Résumé. Les impôts sur le revenu reportés ont été l'objet d'une immense contraverse. L'auteur fait remarquer que cette controverse est en grande partie centrée sur la nature conjoncturelle des impôts sur le revenu. Il examine la similarité entre la dette fiscale de l'entreprise et une option d'achat européenne libellée sur la valeur avant impôt de l'entre-prise. Dans cette perspective, l'auteur démontre que les impôts reportés modifient effectivement le prix d'exercice de l'option d'achat détenue par le gouvernement, infiuant ainsi sur la valeur des droits à l'actif de l'entreprise. Il obtient des résultats supplémentaires du modèle en évaluant la dette fiscale et les créances financières de l'entreprise par l'intermédiaire d'une formule de détermination du prix exact de l'option. Enfin, l'auteur démontre que certaines des hypothèses sous-jacentes au modèle résistent à l'analyse.     

FACTOR ENDOWMENTS, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, AND THE FUTURE OF APEC TRADE PATTERNS

The heads of state of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) nations have committed member nations to remove all barriers to trade both among themselves and with respect to the rest of the world by 2020. The present paper uses a simple econometric model of bilateral trade flows based on country size, relative factor endowments, and trade barriers of importing as well as exporting countries to estimate the shares by country of origin in imports of each of the 16 major APEC countries and the rest of the world for each of 45 commodity groups comprising world trade in commodities. The estimates reveal that APEC trade would be expanded by 13% with complete liberalization of tariff barriers, by an additional 5% if nontariff barriers are also removed, and by another 4% if the rest of the world would also remove all barriers to trade. Variants on this base scenario show that such trade expansion could be substantially reduced were trade liberalization, capital growth, or both to be reduced in the countries affected by the Asian financial crisis. ( JEL Fl, F17)     

Boekbesprekingen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

The Impact of Public Policies on Innovation and Imitation: The Role of R&D Technology in Growth Models

It has been shown under the assumption of linear R&D technology that a government subsidy to imitative (innovative) R&D decreases (increases) imitative effort but increases (decreases) innovative effort, and that strengthening the enforcement of patent laws leads to a decrease in innovative R&D but to an increase in imitative R&D. By replacing the linear R&D technology with a sufficiently convex R&D technology, we have shown that the counter-intuitive results are reversed. In the case of linear R&D technology, the socially optimal R&D policies and activities are indeterminate, but with convex R&D technology, optimal innovation and imitation subsidies would induce the market to generate socially 'balanced' innovative and imitative activities.