On Long-term Forecasting of Social Security: A Robustness Analysis

In this paper we present a macro-economic demographic growth modelhaving a special focus on social security. It is designed to study the variability of responses of the system in presence of risks and uncertainties. Here we analyze the robustness of the model towards uncertainties in parameterspecifications, introduced by ARCH-M models with the incorporation ofintervention processes. The parameters varied are labor force participationrates (one of the key sources of uncertainty in the social security policydebate), and the parameters of the production function (the key source ofuncertainty in any long-run economic analysis). The sensitivity analysisfocuses on two variables: assets of the private pension system and thebalance of the public `Pay As You Go' pension system. Special attentionis given to convergence properties of the macro-economic model.     

Understanding tourists’ leisure expenditure at the destination: a social network analysis

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study is to identify spending patterns of tourists in relation to the leisure activities performed throughout their day-by-day stay at the destination. Using the methodology of social network analysis (SNA), a tourists–activities bipartite network was identified following a pattern known as core–periphery. The effect of this structure (including typology, number, and timing of performing the activities) on tourism expenditure is analysed using a multiple regression model, to which were added different sociodemographic variables and other variables related to travel. In order to better understand the portfolio of activities, four examples of networks are studied and visually represented. This study reveals that through SNA between tourists and activities, we can study the behaviour of tourists in a novel way.     

As Different as Chalk and Cheese? The Relationship Between Entrepreneurial Orientation and SMEs’ Growth: Evidence from Russia and Finland

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between entrepreneurial orientation (EO) and firm growth and the moderating role of business environment for Russian and Finnish small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). For hypothesis testing, structural equation modeling is applied to the data set of 104 Russian and 117 Finnish privately owned SMEs. Results show that while in the Finnish market context EO dimensions are directly associated with firm growth, in the emerging Russian market the relationship is moderated by the dynamic and hostile environment. The results also provide evidence of the nature of EO for SMEs operating in Russia.     

The Right to Annual Leave as a Basic Guarantee for Safe and Healthy Conditions at Work. Remarks Based on Lithuanian and Polish Legal Regulations

Employee Responsibilities and Rights Journal - The right to annual leave as originated from the need to protect human dignity is a fundamental right for people performing work and therefore...     

A gendered look at entrepreneurship ecosystems

Small Business Economics - Underlying entrepreneurship ecosystems is the implicit assumption that all entrepreneurs have equal access to resources, participation, and support, as well as an equal...     

Democratizing Entrepreneurship? Digital Technologies and the Internationalization of Female‐Led SMEs

This study examines how digital technologies affect the international expansion of female‐led small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs). Digital technologies have the potential to democratize entrepreneurship by providing access to international market knowledge and facilitating interactions with customers and partners. Building on the original Penrosean specification of the resource‐based view and the notion of versatility of resources, we propose that digital technologies impact positively SME internationalization through the mediation of international market intelligence. Furthermore, we posit that female entrepreneurs will leverage the enabling effects of digital technologies more than their male counterparts. The hypotheses are tested on a representative sample of 300 Bulgarian SMEs. Implications for policy and research are advanced.     

Social context reveals gender differences in cooperative behavior

A number of previous researches indicate that men prefer competition over cooperation, and it is sometimes suggested that women show the opposite behavioral preference. In the current study the effects of social context on gender differences in cooperation are investigated. For the purpose, we compared men and women behavior under two social conditions: in groups of strangers and in groups with long-term socialization—groups of friends. The differences were found in changes in the level of cooperation, taking into account the effects of mixing social and gender variables. Social interaction and communication made cooperation of group members strength and sustainable. However, men’s and women’s cooperative behavior in groups differed. Women were initially more inclined to cooperate in interaction with strangers. Men showed greater sensitivity to sociality effects. They tended to make cooperative decisions more often if there were friends in the group. Furthermore, men cooperated with previously unknown people after socialization with them significantly more than women.     

The cost-effectiveness of dulaglutide versus liraglutide for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Spain in patients with BMI ≥30 kg/m2

Objective: Dulaglutide 1.5?mg once weekly is a novel glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist, for the treatment of type two diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The objective was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dulaglutide once weekly vs liraglutide 1.8?mg once daily for the treatment of T2DM in Spain in patients with a BMI ≥30?kg/m².

Methods: The IMS CORE Diabetes Model (CDM) was used to estimate costs and outcomes from the perspective of Spanish National Health System, capturing relevant direct medical costs over a lifetime time horizon. Comparative safety and efficacy data were derived from direct comparison of dulaglutide 1.5?mg vs liraglutide 1.8?mg from the AWARD-6 trial in patients with a body mass index (BMI) ≥30?kg/m². All patients were assumed to remain on treatment for 2 years before switching treatment to basal insulin at a daily dose of 40?IU. One-way sensitivity analyses (OWSA) and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were conducted to explore the sensitivity of the model to plausible variations in key parameters and uncertainty of model inputs.

Results: Under base case assumptions, dulaglutide 1.5?mg was less costly and more effective vs liraglutide 1.8?mg (total lifetime costs €108,489 vs €109,653; total QALYS 10.281 vs 10.259). OWSA demonstrated that dulaglutide 1.5?mg remained dominant given plausible variations in key input parameters. Results of the PSA were consistent with base case results.

Limitations: Primary limitations of the analysis are common to other cost-effectiveness analyses of chronic diseases like T2DM and include the extrapolation of short-term clinical data to the lifetime time horizon and uncertainty around optimum treatment durations.

Conclusion: The model found that dulaglutide 1.5?mg was more effective and less costly than liraglutide 1.8?mg for the treatment of T2DM in Spain. Findings were robust to plausible variations in inputs. Based on these results, dulaglutide may result in cost savings to the Spanish National Health System.     

Land Market Interactions between Heterogeneous Agents in a Heterogeneous Landscape—Tracing the Macro-Scale Effects of Individual Trade-Offs between Environmental Amenities and Disamenities

Heterogeneity in both the spatial environment and economic agents is a crucial driver of land market dynamics. We present an agent‐based land market model where land from agriculture use is transferred into urban. The model combines the microeconomic demand, supply, and bidding foundations of spatial economics models with the spatial heterogeneity of spatial econometric models in a single methodological platform. Heterogeneous agents exchange heterogeneous spatial goods via simulated bilateral market interactions. We model a coastal city where both coastal amenities and flooding or erosion disamenities drive land market outcomes, facilitating separate analysis of the effects of each driver on land rents and land development patterns. We also analyze the implications of homogeneous versus heterogeneous but unbiased flood risk perceptions. Since buyers with low risk perceptions drive market outcomes, spatial development under heterogeneous risk perceptions differs qualitatively, with more expansion into risky areas. Our results highlight the shortcomings of policy models based on representative agent assumptions and the importance of including agent‐level data in empirical modeling. L'hétérogénéité de l'environnement spatial et des agents économiques constitue un élément moteur crucial de la dynamique du marché foncier. Nous présentons un modèle multi‐agent du marché foncier dans lequel des terres agricoles ont été transférées pour des fins urbaines. Le modèle combine les fondements microéconomiques de la demande, de l'offre et des enchères de modèles de l'économie spatiale avec l'hétérogénéité spatiale des modèles de l'économétrie spatiale dans une plateforme méthodologique unique. Les agents hétérogènes échangent des biens hétérogènes par le biais du jeu des forces du marché bilatéral simulé. Nous avons modélisé une ville côtière où les agréments côtiers et les désagréments causés par les inondations ou l'érosion influent sur le marché foncier, facilitant l'analyse individuelle des effets de chaque élément moteur sur les loyers fonciers et les modèles d'aménagement de terrain. Nous avons également analysé les répercussions des perceptions homogènes et hétérogènes mais non biaisées à l'égard du risque d'inondation. Étant donné que les acquéreurs qui ont de faibles perceptions du risque motivent les effets du marché, le développement spatial selon des perceptions hétérogènes à l'égard du risque varie qualitativement, avec plus d'expansion dans les zones à risque. Nos résultats ont mis en lumière les lacunes des modèles de politiques fondés sur les hypothèses d'un agent représentatif et l'importance d'inclure des données sur l'hétérogénéité des agents dans la modélisation empirique.     

Perceived Differences: Chinese and Russian Farmers on Business,Law, Management,and Environment

The People's Republic of China has been following a strategy for several decades to encourage its enterprises to invest overseas. Since the liberalization of the Sino-Soviet border in the 1990s, Chinese farmers have been actively engaged in the economy of the Russian Far East (RFE). This article examines Chinese and Russian public relations messages broadcast by media about Chinese-Russian agricultural cooperation that use different arguments, methods of reasoning, and points of view. There is a clash of different national management methods. Legislation applying to Chinese working in Russia has been erratic and unstable, and that makes cooperation more challenging. The concepts of environmental protection and obedience to the law are understood differently by Russians and by Chinese. Cross-cultural management differences affect the way people on both sides interpret institutions, interactions, and the ability to trust third parties. There are different values and priorities expressed by Russians and by Chinese when it comes to development of rural areas in the RFE.