Technical Note: Constructing Tornado Diagrams with Spreadsheets

Tornado diagrams are a classic tool of sensitivity analysis for decision analysis, yet engineering economy texts and TEE articles rarely include them. It is suggested that this is due to apparent barriers in constructing them—particularly for problems with positive and negative values. While the texts and articles may not represent typical engineering economy practice, they certainly lay the foundation for it. This note summarizes how to construct tornado diagrams in Excel. A template for constructing these diagrams is available from the author at aftge@uaa.alaska.edu.     

中美货币之争：不如休战，来一次卡拉OK!

中美两国正在就人民币汇率问题争论不休,关于人民币升值的问题,将影响双方在世界上各自扮演的角色,并对双方的关系产生深远的影响。     

Factors Impacting Food Safety Risk Perceptions

We developed and applied a model of consumer risk perceptions of beef food safety to better understand the underlying drivers of consumer demand for food safety. We show how consumer demographics, country‐of‐residence, as well as reliance on, and trust in, alternative food safety information sources affect risk perceptions of consumers in Canada, Japan and the United States. Consumers in all three countries have risk perceptions shaped by their level of reliance on observable and credence attribute information. Risk perceptions of consumers in each country are significantly higher for those less trusting of doctors. Moreover, personal and indirect food safety experiences substantially affect risk perceptions. These results are useful to decision‐makers in developing more efficient supply chain management strategies and public policies aimed at building or sustaining consumer confidence in food safety.     

Is Beta Dead or Alive?

The debate about whether beta is dead or alive has heated up once again. We believe the empirical work supporting either side of the argument is limited because market frictions are not adequately addressed. This study clarifies the controversy about the issue by creating a new moving-average beta and analyzing two market anomalies: the turn-of-the-year and the Monday effects. What is discovered in this research is (1) that a fundamental source of the problem underlying the two types of market anomalies is the persistence of market frictions that retard the arbitrage process; (2) that beta is seriously ill if the effects of market frictions are ignored; and (3) that beta is alive and well if the effects of market frictions are accommodated. Also, we show, by using an optimal lead/lag structure, the moving-average beta provides significantly higher explanatory power for the turn-of the-year and the Monday effects than betas created from ordinary least squares regression and Scholes-Williams and Fama-French methods because the moving-average beta accommodates the effects of market frictions into the body of beta itself. This new type of beta, a moving-average beta, is demonstrated to be robust.     

China's Accession to the World Trade Organization: What Is at Stake for Agricultural Markets?

We analyze the impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization on major crop and livestock markets using the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) modeling framework. We incorporate expected changes in consumer income, textile production, and trade policies as exogenous shocks to the baseline model. Following accession, revenues decline in China's livestock, grain, and oilseed industries, while cotton production prospers despite increased imports. Chinese consumers benefit from lower food prices, with vegetable oil, dairy, and meat consumption increasing significantly. Argentina, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and the United States are the greatest beneficiaries from expanded agricultural trade with China.     

LACK‐OF‐RECALL AND CENTRALIZED MONETARY TRADE*

We introduce lack‐of‐recall of past transactions as an alternative assumption to anonymity in a model where trade is centralized. In environments where there is an intertemporal lack‐of‐double‐coincidence of wants problem and lack‐of‐commitment, lack‐of‐recall can give rise to monetary equilibria that dominate nonmonetary outcomes in terms of welfare.     

Community design of a light rail transit-oriented development using casewise visual evaluation (CAVE)

This paper proposes the casewise visual evaluation or CAVE, methodology and discusses its application to the participatory design of a transit-oriented development (TOD) in Louisville, Kentucky. CAVE is a fuzzy logic-based non-linear visual preference modeling system designed to provide design element guidance from composite visual scenarios under conditions of sparse data.The context of application in a low-income urban neighborhood is detailed. An architectural expert's design vocabulary allows model input and output to be structured. A small set of image samples was scored for preference using anonymous electronic polling in distributed neighborhood forums. Using fuzzy set theoretic software a community preference knowledge base (PKB) was built and interrogated. Four critical TOD design dimensions were selected: height, typology, density, and open space type. Preferred TOD design combinations were identified using the PKB and discussed. This project shows that CAVE can provide context-specific guidance for urban designers and that its strengths in effectively devolving design input and capturing local preferences are recognized by the community. The paper highlights the necessity for advanced geovisual analytic methods to be embedded into a structured public involvement (SPI) process.     

THE SHAREHOLDER WEALTH EFFECTS OF CALPERS' FOCUS LIST

Shareholder activism can help to protect shareholder value by promoting sound corporate governance practices. As an active institutional investor, CalPERS takes its role in the corporate governance process very seriously. In addition to many other initiatives, CalPERS publishes each year a list of six to twelve public companies with poor corporate governance principles and poor financial performance—its well-known "Focus List"—in the hope that the managements of these companies will be motivated to improve their performance and increase shareholder value for CalPERS and their other equity owners.
In an attempt to assess the effectiveness of CalPERS' governance program, the authors examine the market impact of the Focus List and find that companies on the list experience positive excess stock returns of about 12% over the three months following release of the list. Moreover, this wealth effect is even greater for companies with a large, widely dispersed shareholder base, as might be expected given the relative inability of such shareholders to act collectively.