Implications of Seasonal Climate Forecasts on World Wheat Trade: A Stochastic, Dynamic Analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long‐run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year‐to‐year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20‐year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years. Le progrès des prévisions saisonnières du climat a une portée économique pour l'agriculture internationale. Un modèle stochastique et dynamique de l'économie internationale du blé est développé afin d'estimer les effets potentiels des prévisions saisonnières du climat sur la production de blé de divers pays, leurs exportations et le commerce mondial. Les études précédentes ont généralement ignoré les aspects stochastiques et dynamiques des effets liés à l'utilisation des prévisions climatiques. Cette étude montre l'importance de ces aspects. En particulier avec le libre échange l'utilisation de ces prévisions aboutit à l'augmentation des excédents dans tous les pays exportateurs. En fait, il apparaît que les producteurs accaparent une grande part de l'excédent économique créé par l'utilisation de ces prévisions. De plus, les dimensions stochastiques suggèrent que bien que les bénéfices à long terme des prévisions climatiques puissent être substantiels, on s'attend à des variations considérables d'une année à l'autre dans la distribution des bénéfices entre les producteurs et les consommateurs. Il est possible qu'un indicateur économique varie à la baisse sur 20 ans eus fonction de la séquence de variation climatique.     

Recap of the 29th annual conference on financial economics and accounting,November 16–17, 2018

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting -     

Bringing the elephant into the room? Enacting conflict in collective prosocial organizing

Cross-sector partnerships have the capacity to bring together partners from very different backgrounds and circumstances toward collective prosocial efforts. We conducted a longitudinal inductive field study of eight cross-sector partnerships formed as new ventures addressing a variety of fundamental social challenges in the context of deep inequality in post-Apartheid South Africa. This allowed us to develop theory and a process model that explains how some partnerships are able to achieve collective prosocial efforts while others engage in only one-sided efforts or become inactive. The key differences hinge on processes of enacting or failing to enact conflicting material interests among relevant stakeholders. Our results have implications for the inclusion of material interests in theories of cross-sector partnering and for our understanding of entrepreneurship under conditions of inequality. The theory we develop provides a platform for future research on collective prosocial organizing in the contexts that need it most.     

The perils of privacy regulation

Advocates of digital privacy law believe it is necessary to correct failures in the market for digital privacy. Though legislators allegedly craft digital privacy regulation to protect consumers, some advocates have understated the dangers that digital privacy law may engender. This paper provides evidence for Kirzner’s “perils of regulation” in the digital privacy arena. The regulatory process fails to simulate the market process, stifles entrepreneurial discovery, and creates opportunities for superfluous discovery. My research suggests that policy-makers should consider a more holistic accounting of the costs before imposing additional digital privacy regulation.     

裁员也能双赢

对于世界各地几乎所有的公司和组织而言．现在都是一个非常困难的时期。几乎所有的公司业务都在减少;几乎所有的组织,无论盈利与否．都处在预算压力之下。大家都在削减成本。在大多数情况下,这意味着裁员,也意味着经济危帆使世界各地的雇员和个人陷入困境。     

Tests for changing mean with monotonic power

Several widely used tests for a changing mean exhibit nonmonotonic power in finite samples, due to “incorrect” estimation of nuisance parameters under the alternative. In this paper, we study the issue of nonmonotonic power in testing for changing mean. We investigate the asymptotic power properties of the tests, using a new framework where alternatives are characterized as having “large” changes. The asymptotic analysis provides a theoretical explanation to the power problem. Modified tests that have monotonic power against a wide range of alternatives of structural change are proposed. Instead of estimating the nuisance parameters based on ordinary least squares residuals, the proposed tests use modified estimators, based on nonparametric regression residuals. It is shown that tests based on the modified long-run variance estimator provide an improved rate of divergence of the tests under the alternative of a change in mean. Tests for structural breaks based on such an estimator are able to remain consistent, while still retaining the same asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis of constant mean.     

INDUSTRY DYNAMICS AND THE MINIMUM WAGE: A PUTTY‐CLAY APPROACH

We document two new findings about the industry‐level response to minimum wage hikes. First, restaurant exit and entry both rise following a hike. Second, there is no change in employment among continuing restaurants. We develop a model of industry dynamics based on putty‐clay technology that is consistent with these findings. In the model, continuing restaurants cannot change employment, and thus industry‐level adjustment occurs gradually through exit of labor‐intensive restaurants and entry of capital‐intensive restaurants. Interestingly, the putty‐clay model matches the small estimated short‐run disemployment effect of the minimum wage found in other studies, but produces a larger long‐run disemployment effect.