美国人如何看待中国的崛起

中国的GDP超过日本成为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体,对此美国人有何看法？我认为,当美国人感觉受威胁时,他们会调转头米关注中国自身的内部问题,并希望借此使中国放缓经济发展的脚步。     

FLASH GROWTH ESTIMATES USING CALENDAR INFORMATION

In 1991 Statistics Netherlands introduced their early flash estimates of the Quarterly National Accounts. In this article we examine a new, faster flash estimate, some three to four weeks earlier. The gain is made by using a simple regression technique and incomplete data. To compensate for the lack of data, information on the number of working days and shopping days was added to the regression. The inclusion of these calendar aspects significantly affect GDP growth: 0.30 percent point extra GDP growth for one extra working day, and 0.17 percent point for one extra shopping day.
The cost of an earlier estimate is a decrease of reliability. The probability of a forecast error of over 0.5 percent point will be about 26 percent, compared to 12 percent for the official flash estimate.     

Log-concave probability and its applications

Summary. In many applications, assumptions about the log-concavity of a probability distribution allow just enough special structure to yield a workable theory. This paper catalogs a series of theorems relating log-concavity and/or log-convexity of probability density functions, distribution functions, reliability functions, and their integrals. We list a large number of commonly-used probability distributions and report the log-concavity or log-convexity of their density functions and their integrals. We also discuss a variety of applications of log-concavity that have appeared in the literature.Received: 31 December 2003, Revised: 22 March 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C40, D40, D80. Correspondence to: Ted BergstromWe thank Ken Binmore and Larry Samuelson for encouragement and suggestments.     

Neighborhood Demographics and the Distribution of Hazardous Waste Risks: An Instrumental Variables Estimation

This paper examines whether the marginal price of risk reduction varies by the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods. Using an instrumental-variables approach to control for the two-way relationship between housing prices and environmental risk, the paper finds that the marginal valuation of risk reduction is higher in high-education and high-income neighborhoods. The results also suggest that environmental risks are greater in neighborhoods with low-priced houses and in neighborhoods with low levels of collective action, suggesting that polluters consider these characteristics when making their siting decisions.     

Designing environmental policy: lessons from the regulation of mercury emissions

In its waning days, the Clinton administration decided that it was appropriate to regulate mercury emissions from power plants. The incoming Bush administration had to decide how best to regulate these emissions. The Bush administration offered two approaches for regulating mercury emissions from power plants. The first was to establish uniform emission rates across utilities, as mandated by the 1990 Amendments. The second was to establish a cap on mercury emissions while allowing emissions trading in order to reduce the cost of achieving the goal. This paper presents the first cost-benefit analysis of this issue that takes account of IQ benefits. We find that the benefits of the mercury regulation are likely to fall short of the cost. This assessment is based on a number of assumptions that are highly uncertain. The finding of negative net benefits is robust to many, though not all, reasonable variations in the model assumptions. We also find that the emissions trading proposal is roughly $15 billion less expensive than the command-and-control proposal. Mr. Gayer is associate professor of public policy at Georgetown University and a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Hahn is co-founder and executive director of the American Enterprise Institute-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies and a scholar at AEI. We would like to thank Mary Jo Krolewski, Leonard Levin, Joel Schwartz, Anne Smith, Nik Wada, and Chris Whipple for helpful comments and Jordan Connors, Laura Goodman and Molly Wells for valuable research assistance. The views expressed in this paper represent those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the institutions with which they are affiliated.     

On the geography of conventions

Summary. We study an evolutionary model in which heterogenous boundedly rational agents interact locally in order to play a coordination game. Agents differ in their mobility with mobile agents being able to relocate within a country. We find that mobile agents enjoy a higher payoff and always benefit from increased mobility, while immobile agents benefit from increased mobility at low levels of mobility only. This wedge in payoffs weakly increases as mobility increases. Some extensions are discussed. Received: January 10, 2001; revised version: December 4, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" We thank, without implicating in any way, George Mailath for helpful discussions. Some of the ideas in this paper were developed during the V Conference of the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory in Ischia, Italy. The NSF provided financial support. Correspondence to: T. Temzelides     

Cattle Feeder Perceptions of Livestock Mandatory Price Reporting

Mandatory livestock price reporting was designed to increase available price information with the intent of facilitating price discovery. Has the program been effective? This study determines how cattle feeders, a primary target of the program, feel about mandatory price reporting (MPR) effectiveness. Results from a survey of cattle feeders reveal a diversity of opinion. Producers tend to be neutral to slightly negative regarding the value of MPR. Some of the dissatisfaction appears to have been associated with unrealistic expectations. Most feedlot characteristics have little systematic relationship to the manager's perceptions regarding usefulness of MPR.