CONSIDERATION OF WEATHER RISK IN FORAGE MACHINERY SELECTION

This paper concerns a procedure jor measuring the major economic risks and returns involved in forage production. Conventional static production economics was modified to permit the use of decision criteria under conditions of weather risk. Twenty-six years of rainfall data were analyzed to determine the expected mean number of days available for fieldwork ivithin each of three specified seasons. These seasons correspond with three critical forage production periods: e.g., (1) land preparation and planting, (2) hay harvest, and (3) corn silage harvest and fall plouiing. A probability distribution of days available for field operations was derived, and the number of days available in any one year was randomly selected from this distribution. Given the acreage involved and the machinery system, the days required to perform nine specified field operations were calculated. If the number of days required within a specified season exceeded the number of days available, the value of the crops produced was reduced by a set of yield reducing functions for each deficient day. Overhead and use-associated machinery costs uiere calculated, and net returns over machinery costs were determined for five machinery systems at 75,150, 225, and 300 acres. Cette publication montre une façon de mesurer les plus grands risques économiques et les profits provenant de la production fourragére. On a modifyé?économie de production conventionnelle et statique afin de tenir compte des critéres de décision utilisés sous les conditions de risques climatologiques. Les chutes de pluie ont été analysées sur une période de vingt-six ans afin de determiner la moyenne des jours disponibles au travail des champs, et ce, pour chacune des trois saisons specifiées. Ces saisons correspondent aux trois périodes critiques de la production fourragere: (1) la préparation du sol et le semis, (2) la récolte du foin, et (3) la récolte du maïs à ensiler et les labours ?automne. On a calculé la distribution probable des jours disponibles pour les travaux des champs et, de cette distribution, le nombre des jours disponibles fut choisi au hasard dans une quel-conque année. Selon une superfécie et un systéme dé machinerie determineés, le nombre de jours nécessaires à?exécution de neuf operations differéntes fut calculé. Lorsque le nombre de jour requis pour ?exécution des travaux ?une saison donnee dépasse le nombre de jours disponibles, la valeur des récoltes produites est réduite par une diminution de rende-ment de plusieurs facteurs, une diminution fonction du nombre de jours manquants. Les frais géneraux et les dépenses associées à?utilisation de la machinerie furent calculés. Les profits nets sur les dépenses de machinerie ont été déterminés pour chaque systéme ?equipement avec 75, 150, 225, et 300 âcres.     

Are Derivative Warrants Overpriced?

This study investigates the pricing efficiency of Hang Seng Index (HSI) derivative warrants in Hong Kong. Different from similar research, the study examines the pricing efficiency of index warrants by comparing their implied volatilities (IV) with realized volatility (RV). Although prior studies find that warrants are more expensive than the corresponding options, they are not necessarily overpriced in the conventional sense—that is, relative to the RV. This approach allows the study to test the pricing efficiency of warrants via a test of their information content. Moreover, unlike studies that focus on data at market close, the study uses a large sample of highly synchronous intraday, firm, bid–ask quote data to avoid possible distortions arising from intraday variations in liquidity and pricing in the instruments. The data also helps eliminate the potential nonsynchronous price problem that may affect the test results. Consistent with the results from previous studies, we find that warrants are often more expensive than options. This result is attributed to the inability of non‐issuers to sell short, and the high participation rate of unsophisticated investors in the warrants market. However, regression analysis shows that IVs from ATM and OTM warrants provide unbiased volatility forecasts, and that IVs from ATM options do not subsume the information content of ATM warrants. ATM warrant prices are in line with the RV and are efficiently priced. Simulation results show that writing warrants is more profitable than writing options, and that the overpricing is directly related to the volatility premium.     

Employee Job Satisfaction following Deregulation in the Bus Industry

This article examines the effect of deregulation on 95 first line managers in the bus industry. The way deregulation was handled by the government was a major source of criticism. On the whole the sample felt perturbed by deregulation as they did not see it as being in the best interest of the public or the bus industry. Feelings regarding the effects on their jobs were mixed although quite a number felt deregulation had led to improvements. Despite concern over the status of the bus industry, the image of the companies in the community and the services they offered, respondents expressed considerable pride in working for their respective companies. It is tentatively suggested that poor communication before and immediately following deregulation was the cause of much of the dissatisfaction.     

Bricolage as a Path to Innovativeness for Resource‐Constrained New Firms

Evidence suggests that both nascent and young firms (henceforth: “new firms”)—despite typically being small and resource‐constrained—are sometimes able to innovate effectively. Such firms are seldom able to invest in lengthy and expensive development processes, which suggests that they may frequently rely instead on other pathways to generate innovativeness within the firm. In this paper, we develop and test arguments that “bricolage,” defined as making do by applying combinations of the resources at hand to new problems and opportunities, provides an important pathway to achieve innovation for new resource‐constrained firms. Through bricolage, resource‐constrained firms engage in the processes of “recombination” that are core to creating innovative outcomes. Based on a large longitudinal dataset, our results suggest that variations in the degree to which firms engage in bricolage behaviors can provide a broadly applicable explanation of innovativeness under resource constraints by new firms. We find no general support for our competing hypothesis that the positive effects may level off or even turn negative at high levels of bricolage.     

Becoming the organization of the future

Becoming the organization of the future is the number one challenge facing every organization. It is more important than a major technological breakthrough, developing a new product or implementing a successful marketing strategy.Building an organization for the future is not a side issue. We must carefully study what we do and how we do it. We must consider the human qualities that give our organizations their vitality and potential as well as considering conditions outside our organizations.The kind of organizations we want for the future must be planned now and a process established to see that it happens.     

美国会不会成为下一个希腊——谈美国金融监管改革

5月20日,美国参议院通过了金融监管改革方案。奥巴马政府选择在此时着手金融监管改革,一个重要的原因,是为了捞回在医改中丢失的政治资本,为赢得中期选举做准备     

An investigation of the weekend effect during different market orientations

Studies of stock returns over short horizons indicated irregularities in returns, the weekend effect, and consequently the notion of market efficiency has been questioned. Despite extensive research on the weekend effect, little research has been conducted to define the prominence of the seasonal anomaly in Bear markets versus non-Bear markets. In the paper the weekend effect is investigated for daily returns in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ for Bear and non-Bear markets. Results support a weekend effect but only during non-Bear market orientations and a possible day-of-the-week effect during Bear and non-Bear markets.     

How Choice Experiment Design Affects Estimated Valuation of Use of Gestation Crates

This study utilises a split‐sample experimental approach where six different choice experiment designs that vary in the number of attributes are used to control for the effects of design dimensions and consumer inferences in assessing consumer demand. Our application is in the use of gestation stalls (crates) in pork production. Our findings suggest that effects of both the mixture of attributes included in the design and consumer inferences on the specific attributes presented in experiments influence estimated willingness‐to‐pay and consumer welfare. Implications are that when researchers limit their studies to the use of a unique choice experiment design, resulting willingness‐to‐pay estimates might not be robust to different specifications.     

Industrial Dispute Tactics in Australian Manufacturing

Industrial action has been the subject of considerable economic research, but most research has focused exclusively on strikes and has ignored the fact that workers can use tactics other than strikes in resolving disputes. The fact that workers engage in forms of industrial action other than strikes raises important questions: What determines the incidence of nonstrike action, and how do these determinants compare with strikes? This article uses a recently developed dispute‐level data set of both strike and nonstrike actions in Australian manufacturing to analyze determinants of the incidence of two types of industrial actions: strikes and work bans. Work bans are actions where workers refuse to engage in certain specified tasks such as overtime but otherwise remain on the job. Evidence is found that the incidence of work bans is affected by changes in economic and institutional conditions in significantly different ways than strikes.     

人民币问题并非表面那么简单

美国国会希望通过一项法案，惩罚那些被判定为货币汇率过低的国家。该法案直接针对中国。但它有助于解决中美贸易不平衡的问题吗？