PRICING OF AMERICAN PATH-DEPENDENT CONTINGENT CLAIMS

We consider the problem of pricing path-dependent contingent claims. Classically, this problem can be cast into the Black-Scholes valuation framework through inclusion of the path-dependent variables into the state space. This leads to solving a degenerate advection-diffusion partial differential equation (PDE). We first estabilish necessary and sufficient conditions under which degenerate diffusions can be reduced to lower-dimensional nondegenerate diffusions. We apply these results to path-dependent options. Then, we describe a new numerical technique, called forward shooting grid (FSG) method, that efficiently copes with degenerate diffusion PDEs. Finally, we show that the FSG method is unconditionally stable and convergent. the FSG method is the first capable of dealing with the early exercise condition of American options. Several numerical examples are presented and discussed. ²     

Non-Europe: The magnitude and causes of market fragmentation in the EU

Non-Europe: The Magnitude and Causes of Market Fragmentation in the EU. — In 1985 the European Commission diagnosed its member states as suffering from excessive market fragmentation, later referred to as “Non-Europe.” The authors examine the empirical basis for the Commission’s diagnosis using a trade model derived from monopolistic competition. They then investigate the links between the initial size and subsequent evolution of border effects within the EU. The findings support the view that European consumers act as if imports from other members were subject to high nontariff barriers. However, there appears to be almost no relationship between market fragmentation and the barriers that were identified and removed by Europe’s Single Market Programme.     

What Is the Economic Meaning of FDH? A Reply to Thrall

Journal of Productivity Analysis -     

The Internal Organization of the Firm, Transaction Costs, and Macroeconomic Growth

This articleanalyzes the links between the internal organization of the firmand macroeconomic growth. We present a Schumpeterian growth modelin which firms face agency costs due to the existence of asymmetriesof information and the formation of vertical collusions insidethose firms. To respond to the threat of collusion, optimal collusion-proofincentive contracts depend on the efficiency of collusive sidecontracting within organizations. Collusion affects thereforethe firms' profitability, the incentives to innovate, and, finally,the stationary equilibrium growth rate of the economy. On theother hand, when the growth rate is small, the prospects of long-termrelationships within firms increase the agents' incentives toinvest in a better collusive technology. We then discuss thetwo-way relationships between the structure of internal transactioncosts, organizational technologies, and macroeconomic growth.     

Nonparametric tests for Optimal Predictive Ability

A nonparametric method for comparing multiple forecast models is developed and implemented. The hypothesis of Optimal Predictive Ability generalizes the Superior Predictive Ability hypothesis from a single given loss function to an entire class of loss functions. Distinction is drawn between General Loss functions, Convex Loss functions, and Symmetric Convex Loss functions. The research hypothesis is formulated in terms of moment inequality conditions. The empirical moment conditions are reduced to an exact and finite system of linear inequalities based on piecewise-linear loss functions. The hypothesis can be tested in a statistically consistent way using a blockwise Empirical Likelihood Ratio test statistic. A computationally feasible test procedure computes the test statistic using Convex Optimization methods, and estimates conservative, data-dependent critical values using a majorizing chi-square limit distribution and a moment selection method. An empirical application to inflation forecasting reveals that a very large majority of thousands of forecast models are redundant, leaving predominantly Phillips Curve-type models, when convexity and symmetry are assumed.     

International capital flows and development: Financial openness matters

Does capital flow from rich to poor countries? We revisit the Lucas paradox to account for the role of capital account openness. We find that, when accounting for such openness, the prediction of the neoclassical theory is empirically confirmed: among financially open economies, less developed countries tend to experience net capital inflows and more developed countries tend to experience net capital outflows. The results hold also when taking into account private flows, institutions, and numerous controls. We also show that reserve intervention has an effect on the current account only in financially open economies.     

Output effects of fiscal stimulus in Central and Eastern European countries

In spite of the rapidly growing research on fiscal multipliers over recent years, little evidence has been so far accumulated in developing and emerging economies. This paper investigates the nature and the size of fiscal multipliers in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Unlike most of the existing literature, we draw upon a panel vector error correction model, which appropriately captures the common long-term path of CEE countries, while allowing for different short-run dynamics, in an integrated setup. Our main results show that the spending multiplier is positive, but low on average. Moreover, its sign, significance and magnitude vary across CEE. Finally, both impulse and cumulative fiscal multipliers are sensitive to a wide range of CEE characteristics, including the exchange rate regime, the level of economic development, the fiscal stance and the openness degree.     

How R&D Competition Affects Investment Choices

We analyze firm research and development investment incentives in a framework in which only one innovation can be undertaken. We assume that the probability of discovering the innovation depends on a parameter that represents the technical difficulty of innovating. We show that patent protection is not always necessary for investments to be made. With patent protection, research and development competition leads to a symmetric equilibrium. Moreover, firms over‐invest in marginal innovation but under‐invest in difficult innovation, which explains why and how public authorities should intervene to promote specific research in certain economic sectors. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

INTERCHANGE FEES IN PAYMENT CARD SYSTEMS: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

Abstract This paper surveys the recent literature about interchange fees in payment card systems. Interchange fees are used by payment platforms to allocate the total cost of a payment card transaction between the cardholder's bank, the issuer, and the merchant's bank, the acquirer. Each time a consumer pays by card, its bank receives an interchange fee from the merchants' bank. Banks argue that interchange fees are needed to encourage the use of electronic payment instruments, whereas merchants claim that they artificially inflate the cost of accepting cards. This paper sheds light on the ongoing debate that opposes banks to the regulatory institutions or the competition authorities in various countries, by reviewing the theoretical results of the literature and highlighting some unanswered issues.     

What separates us? Sources of resistance to globalization

With increasing sophistication, economists have been estimating gravity equations for five decades. Robust evidence shows that borders and distance impede trade by much more than tariffs or transports costs can explain. We therefore advocate investigation of other sources of resistance, despite the greater difficult involved in measuring and modelling them. From our selective review of recent findings, a unifying explanation emerges. A legacy of historical isolation and conflict forged a world economy in which neither tastes nor information are homogeneously distributed. Cultural difference and inadequate information manifest themselves most strongly at national borders and over distance.