Globalization and the dynamics of cultural identity

This paper presents a simple model where micro-founded dynamics of cultural identity are endogenous and interact with an international trade equilibrium. This process generates a strong home bias under autarky. We then show that goods market integration causes a phenomenon of cultural divergence, whereby the distributions of cultures become more dissimilar across countries and one of the cultures that existed under autarky ultimately disappears. By way of contrast, we show that social integration causes cultural convergence and can counterbalance the effects of goods market integration.     

Goodwill bazaar: NGO competition and giving to development

This paper builds a model of competition through fundraising between horizontally differentiated NGOs. NGOs allocate their time resource between working on the project and fundraising, which attracts private donations. If the market size is fixed, the fundraising levels increase with the number of NGOs and the free-entry equilibrium number of NGOs can be larger or smaller than the socially optimal number, depending on the efficiency of the fundraising technology. If the market size is endogenous and NGOs cooperate in attracting new donors, fundraising levels decrease with the number of NGOs and the free-entry equilibrium number of NGOs is smaller than the one that maximizes the welfare of donors and beneficiaries. If NGOs can divert funds for private use, multiple equilibria (with high diversion and no diversion of funds) appear.     

Private cards and the bypass of payment systems by merchants

This paper studies the incentives of a merchant to bypass a payment platform by issuing private cards. In our model, a payment platform allocates the total cost of a card transaction between a monopolistic issuer and a monopolistic acquirer by choosing an “interchange fee”. We determine how the level of the interchange fee impacts a merchant’s decision to issue private cards, if there are strategic interactions between merchants. We prove that the payment platform can only deter entry by lowering the level of the interchange fee. If the payment platform chooses to accommodate entry, we find that the total user surplus increases, but that entry is beneficial to social welfare only if the entry cost is sufficiently low.     

Of markets,products and prices: The effects of the euro on European firms

The introduction of the euro was initially expected to boost trade by an enormous percentage. Following many downward revisions of original estimates the current consensus estimate amounts to an increase of about 5 per cent. In view of the initial high expectations this is often seen as a dismal result. It is, however, based on aggregate data and may therefore hide important microeconomic gains that arise even for a given level of trade fl ows. This paper uses detailed product and firm level data to shed light on these hidden gains. This paper is based on the EFIGE Report 2008, issued under the same title as Bruegel Blueprint Series Volume VIII. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. 225551 and from the Bank of France. The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission or the Bank of France. We are grateful to Andrew Fielding for editorial support. Opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors alone.     

Nonparametric tests for Optimal Predictive Ability

A nonparametric method for comparing multiple forecast models is developed and implemented. The hypothesis of Optimal Predictive Ability generalizes the Superior Predictive Ability hypothesis from a single given loss function to an entire class of loss functions. Distinction is drawn between General Loss functions, Convex Loss functions, and Symmetric Convex Loss functions. The research hypothesis is formulated in terms of moment inequality conditions. The empirical moment conditions are reduced to an exact and finite system of linear inequalities based on piecewise-linear loss functions. The hypothesis can be tested in a statistically consistent way using a blockwise Empirical Likelihood Ratio test statistic. A computationally feasible test procedure computes the test statistic using Convex Optimization methods, and estimates conservative, data-dependent critical values using a majorizing chi-square limit distribution and a moment selection method. An empirical application to inflation forecasting reveals that a very large majority of thousands of forecast models are redundant, leaving predominantly Phillips Curve-type models, when convexity and symmetry are assumed.     

Separability and aggregation of equivalence relations

We provide axiomatic characterizations of two natural families of rules for aggregating equivalence relations: the family of join aggregators and the family of meet aggregators. The central conditions in these characterizations are two separability axioms. Disjunctive separability, neutrality, and unanimity characterize the family of join aggregators. On the other hand, conjunctive separability and unanimity characterize the family of meet aggregators. We show another characterization of the family of meet aggregators using conjunctive separability and two Pareto axioms, Pareto⁺ and Pareto^?. If we drop Pareto^?, then conjunctive separability and Pareto⁺ characterize the family of meet aggregators along with a trivial aggregator.     

Further insights on the puzzle of technical analysis profitability

This paper extends current results concerning technical analysis efficiency on the foreign exchange market and attempts to determine whether filtering the raw exchange rate series with some trading rule significantly changes its characteristics. Because of the non-normality of exchange rate series, bootstrap methods are used on the main daily exchange rates since 1974 to show technical analysis performance. The technical analysis strategy tested generates returns whose distribution is significantly different from the basic series. The robustness of the results is tested in and out-of-sample and an explanation of the technical analysis performance based on its filtering properties is suggested.     

Optimal domestic regulation under asymmetric information and international trade: a simple general equilibrium approach

We investigate the design of domestic incentive regulations in a small economy opened to trade and its implications for international specialization and for trade openness to remain welfare‐improving. More specifically, we append to an otherwise standard 2 × 2 Heckscher‐Ohlin model of a small open economy a continuum of intermediate sectors producing nontradable goods used in tradable sectors. Those goods are produced by privately informed regulated firms. Asymmetric information induces distortions with general equilibrium impacts. The small economy becomes relatively richer in the informationally sensitive factor so that asymmetric information might reverse trade patterns. Free trade is Pareto‐dominated by autarky when it exacerbates agency distortions.     

An evolutionary theory of the convergence towards low inflation rates

This paper presents an evolutionary interpretation of Barro-Gordons monetary policy game. The model describes a multi-country setup where governments and private agents are boundedly rational players. The behavioral rule of players decisions leads to the imitation of the strategy giving the highest payoff. In this evolutionary monetary policy game, we show how a low inflation state is reached from an international context dominated by inflationary policies. The analysis explains the convergence towards low inflation rates observed during the past twenty years. Moreover, the low inflation state appears to be the long-run equilibrium of the game under some conditions featuring the observed macroeconomic context.JEL Classification: E5, C72, C73 Correspondence to: A. dArtigues     

Introduction

Journal of Consumer Policy -