Mercantilism: a materialist approach

ABSTRACT

Historians and economists have shown renewed interest in mercantilism over the last couple of years. From this interest, a dispute has arisen about whether mercantilism should be seen as an incoherent economic thought or if it is possible to ‘reconstruct’ its basic principles. In line with this latter attempt, this paper is intended to provide a materialist explanation for varying degrees of belief in shared mercantilist assumptions. My hypothesis is that belief in mercantilist assumptions is significantly dependent upon how economic and security issues materially interact in a given time and space, with uncertainty and insecurity profoundly favouring mercantilist dispositions in economic thought. To analyse this hypothesis, the paper sets the first steps for relating the credibility of mercantilism with changes in British economic and military history from the sixteenth to the nineteenth century. Section 3 presents ideas to further investigate this hypothesis. Section 4 concludes the paper.     

Output Expectations and Forecasting of UK Manufacturing

This paper analyses both quarterly data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Survey on respondents’ expectations of recent and forthcoming manufacturing output and monthly Office of National Statistics (ONS) figures on actual manufacturing output within the UK. Quarterly output expectations of the CBI manufacturers are explained from the monthly ONS observations using a bounded rationality approach. The logistic formulation models the diffusion process across respondents. There is a backward-looking CBI Survey perspective, explained by past ONS observations, and a forward-looking perspective, explained from future ONS statistics. Also, the forecasting of monthly manufacturing output from earlier values, along with the quarterly CBI Survey information, is examined and tested against the alternative Pesaran/Thomas method. The study provides econometric evidence for the validity of the logistic model and shows that bounded rationality can explain the formation of predictions among business managers in the UK manufacturing sector. The emerging consensus from the literature, supported by this paper, is that the logistic format is a superior approximation to the true data generating process compared with the earlier standard Anderson/Pesaran/Thomas approach. An adjustment to the Survey is used, which achieves perfect symmetry with up and down versions of the data. The benefits of this adjustment are tested in the forecasting section.

Strategic environmental policy and the accumulation of knowledge

In dealing with a transnational pollutant-emitting duopoly welfare-maximising policy makers face two negative externalities: imperfect competition and unpriced emissions. Strategic environmental policy models show that these externalities involve a trade-off between reducing pollution and allowing for rent-seeking of the respective firm. This dilemma usually results in a suboptimal internalisation of the negative externality emerging from emissions. Indeed, the conventional model setup includes an R&D stage that enables the firms to mitigate regulation costs. But the typical one period configuration ignores that R&D expenditures create knowledge capital which is, due to its inherent cumulativeness, also effective in following periods. Our model analyses the established trade-off in a two period setting and therefore allows for an investigation of intertemporal knowledge accumulation. We find that the intertemporal effects provide an incentive for a policy maker to set a higher tax rate compared to a one-period setup which lessens the magnitude of the suboptimal internalisation of emissions. Under certain conditions even a tax rate above the Pigouvian level is possible in period 1.     

Determinants of residential water demand in Germany

We econometrically analyze the impact of several economic, environmental and social determinants for the per capita demand for water in about 600 water supply areas in Germany. Besides prices, income and household size, we consider the effects of population age, the share of wells, housing patterns, precipitation and temperature. We also explore why current per capita residential water consumption in the new federal states is about 30% lower than in the old federal states. Since average cost pricing may cause an endogeneity problem, we apply instrumental-variable procedures in addition to single equation ordinary least squares, but find no evidence that prices are endogenous. Our estimation results suggest that the price elasticity of water demand in Germany is around − 0.24. The income elasticity is positive, decreases with higher income levels and is at least three times higher in the new federal states than in the old federal states. Current differences in prices and income levels explain about one third of the gap in residential water use between the two regions. Household size and the share of wells have a negative impact on per capita water demand, and water use increases with age. Finally, the findings provide some evidence that rainfall patterns rather than total rainfall affect water consumption, while temperature appears to have no impact at all. All outcomes are robust to a log-log and two types of semi-log specifications for the water demand function.     

Evidence of Stock Returns and Abnormal Trading Volume: A Threshold Quantile Regression Approach

This paper presents a capital asset pricing model‐based threshold quantile regression model with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic specification to examine relations between excess stock returns and “abnormal trading volume”. We employ an adaptive Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method with asymmetric Laplace distribution to study six daily Dow Jones Industrial stocks. The proposed model captures asymmetric risk through market beta and volume coefficients, which change discretely between regimes. Moreover, they are driven by market information and various quantile levels. This study finds that abnormal volume has significantly negative effects on excess stock returns under low quantile levels; however, there are significantly positive effects under high quantile levels. The evidence indicates that each market beta varies with different quantile levels, capturing different states of market conditions.     

Wealth inequality: Theory,measurement and decomposition

This paper reviews the basic principles of inequality measurement, underlining the advantages and shortcomings of alternative measures from a theoretical standpoint and in the context of the study of the distribution of wealth. Adopting the two most popular measures, the Gini index and the P‐shares, the paper documents wealth inequality in Canada using the 1999, 2005 and 2012 Survey of Financial Security (SFS). It carries out several decompositions with covariates, featuring DFL‐type reweighting methods and Gini and P‐shares RIF regressions. The latter parallel decompositions deepen our understanding of how changes in socio‐demographic characteristics, including the compensating role of family formation and human capital, impact wealth inequality.     

The link between attractiveness of “Extrabrand” attributes and the adoption of innovations

While innovators may rush to purchase many new products, most consumers are more conservative and do not want to buy into fads but purchase only those new products that are viable. How do the majority of consumers make judgments about whether they will adopt an innovation? This article examines the evaluative aspects of adoption as a means for better understanding consumer adoption and the market factors that may influence the success of an innovation. This research introduces a conceptual model that shows how consumers’ evaluation of product category attractiveness affects the adoption decision for really new products. These consumer evaluations are based on the attributes of the product category (“extrabrand” attributes) rather than brand attributes. Results from a test of the model indicate that consumers do use extrabrand attributes to assess the attractiveness of innovative new products.     

Buyer-seller relationships in the procurement of logistical services

This study presents a two-phase model of interfirm exchange in the logistical supply industry. The first phase uses transaction cost analysis to identify conditions leading to market-based transactions, unilateral agreements, and bilateral alliances. The second phase illustrates how formal controls and relational norms yield performance in market, unilateral, and bilateral governance systems. A test of the model with data from 189 logistical supply relationships suggests that bilateral alliances emerge through the interaction of user investments in the logistics supplier, supplier logistical services, and marketplace uncertainty. Bilateral alliances attain desired outcomes through participative management and flexibility. By contrast, market-based transactions yield desired outcomes through formalization and solidarity. Unilateral agreements gain performance through formalization, participation, information sharing, and solidarity. Implications for logistics management and theory are discussed. He received his Ph.D. in marketing from the University of Cincinnati. His research interests include relationship marketing and marketing channels. His articles have appeared in theJournal of Retailing, Journal of Personal Selling and Sales Management, Marketing Letters, Omega: The International Journal of Management Science, and elsewhere. She received her Ph.D. from the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. Her research has concentrated on business-to-business marketing relationships, with a focus on means to improve coordination, and on sales management, with an emphasis on ways to enhance diversity, improve performance, and reduce turnover. Her articles have appeared in theJournal of Personal Selling and Sales Management, Journal of Business Research, Marketing Letters, Journal of Business-to-Business Marketing, and elsewhere. He is also the director of the Warehousing Research Center (WRC). He received his Ph.D. from Michigan State University. Industrial marketing strategy, marketing and logistics interfaces, logistics and warehousing management are his primary areas of expertise and interest. He has published articles in theJournal of Marketing, Journal of Retailing, Journal of Business Logistics, Industrial Marketing Management, and elsewhere. He has also written a leading industrial marketing text and a variety of warehousing and logistics monographs.     

Hierarchical Arrow Social Welfare Functions

Supported by SNF Grant No: DMS 8803556.     

Price clustering on the Shanghai Stock Exchange

We investigate price clustering of intraday trades and negotiated block trades on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) from 2003 to 2009. Prices of traded assets tend to cluster on certain final digits, such as 0 and 5. In Chinese culture, 8 is associated with good luck and 4 with death so these numbers may be attractive or avoided. We find that price clustering on the final digit of 0 is significantly higher during the morning call auction and early in the trading day. We find no evidence of price clustering for the digit 8, but there is a significant dearth of prices ending in the inauspicious number 4. Price clustering is significantly higher for negotiated block trades, for which about 28% end with 0. Multivariate analysis shows that price clustering is lower for more liquid firms, but higher for firms with higher return volatility, a higher price level, or when the market is volatile. Our evidence supports the costly negotiation hypothesis. Our results also support the attraction hypothesis in that we document significant price clustering at round numbers and even numbers even after controlling for factors that are associated with price uncertainty.