The Staff Ride: Developing Historical Sense in Army Leaders

In the current essay, the author draws on his experience as a serving member of the Armed Forces to discuss the problem of developing military leaders capable of mitigating the disruptive nature of war. Specifically, it discusses the staff ride, a comprehensive analysis of historical events conducted through observation, reflection, and discussion, to develop in leaders an understanding that nothing ever works out the way a leader intends or expects. For the military leader facing the uncertainty and ambiguity of modern combat, this lesson from history is arguably the most essential.     

The valuation consequences of voluntary accounting changes

Firm management typically claims that voluntary accounting method changes (VACs) are made to enhance the informativeness of earnings by better matching accounting practices with economic reality. In contrast, skeptics argue that managers adopt new accounting procedures to opportunistically manage earnings and influence their firm’s stock price. In this paper, we investigate these alternative motives for VACs. Specifically, we investigate whether VACs cause equity prices to deviate from their fundamental values in the short-term by studying the long-run stock-price performance for a sample of firms that voluntarily change accounting methods. In addition, we investigate changes in earnings informativeness by examining the behavior of earning response coefficients and the relationship between earnings and future cash flows in years surrounding the VAC event. In contrast to prior research, we find little evidence that a strategy based solely on the earnings effect of a VAC can generate abnormal returns. While we find weak evidence of post-VAC abnormal returns for extreme VACs, this result appears to be driven by the accruals anomaly documented in Sloan [Sloan, R. G. (1996). The Accounting Review, 71, 289–315]. Our evidence further suggests that earnings informativeness is not significantly altered by voluntary changes in accounting methods. Taken together, our evidence suggests the market recognizes the financial statement effects of alternative acceptable accounting methods and efficiently processes the valuation implications of VACs.

Zur Integration heuristischer Managementstrategien in die Dynamische Finanzanalyse

Dynamic financial analysis (DFA) has become an important tool in analyzing the financial situation of insurance companies. Constant development and documentation of DFA tools has occurred during the last years. However, several questions concerning the implementation of DFA systems have not been answered in the DFA literature to date. One such important issue is the consideration of management strategies in the DFA context. The aim of this paper is to study the effects of different management strategies on a non-life insurer’s risk and return profile. Therefore, we extend the results of a recent working paper by Eling / Parnitzke / Schmeiser (2007) with two variants and test these variants numerically within a DFA simulation study.     

An evaluation of SFAS No. 130 comprehensive income disclosures

In this study, we provide evidence on the pricing of other comprehensive income (OCI) that differs from most evidence in prior research. Prior archival research has largely concluded that OCI is not priced by investors. In contrast, we provide evidence in the post-SFAS 130 period that OCI is priced on a dollar-for-dollar basis as is predicted by economic theory for transitory income items. We attribute this finding to our use of post-SFAS 130 as-reported measures of OCI rather than pre-SFAS 130 as-if estimates of OCI measures. Furthermore, we document that two components of OCI, foreign currency translation adjustment and unrealized gains/losses on available-for-sale securities, are priced by investors. In the post-SFAS 130 period, we also find that the type of financial statement in which firms report OCI and its components affects pricing, consistent with the conclusions of prior experimental research. However, our evidence suggests that investors pay greater attention to OCI information reported in the statement of changes in equity, rather than in a statement of financial performance. This could be attributed to investors becoming more familiar in the post-SFAS 130 period with the predominant reporting of OCI and its components in the statement of changes in equity. These findings may be relevant to both the Financial Accounting Standards Board and the International Accounting Standards Board, which jointly are undertaking a new project that, in part, is addressing financial statement presentation of OCI items.

Volatility Relationship between Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

This paper utilizes calculated historical volatility and GARCH models to compare the historical price volatility behavior of crude oil, motor gasoline and heating oil in U.S. markets since 1990. We incorporate a shift variable in the GARCH/TARCH models to capture the response of price volatility to a change in OPEC’s pricing behavior. This study has three major conclusions. First, there was an increase in volatility as a result of a structural shift to higher crude oil prices after April 1999. Second, volatility shocks from current news are not important since GARCH effects dominate ARCH effects in the variance equation. Third, persistence of volatility in all commodity markets is quite transitory, with half-lives normally being a few weeks.

PENSER L’ENTREPRISE COOPÉRATIVE : AU‐DELÀ DU RÉDUCTIONNISME DU MAINSTREAM

RÉSUMÉ: Ce travail s’intéresse aux approches théoriques de l’entreprise coopérative (ou autogérée). On revient, dans un premier temps, sur les analyses économiques de l’entreprise coopérative par le courant dominant de la théorie économique. Les apports de l’économie néoclassique et néo‐institutionnelle dans ce domaine sont présentés et critiqués. Le c?ur de l’article est consacré au développement d’une approche institutionnelle et non‐standard de l’entreprise coopérative. Pour cela, on s’appuie notamment sur les travaux d’Albert Hirschman, d’Amartya Sen et de l’Economie des Conventions, des textes de philosophie politique sont également mobilisés (Rosanvallon, Ricoeur, Berlin). Une telle démarche suppose de prendre en compte la complexité des comportements individuels et les capacités réflexives des individus (concept de métapréférence), ce qui a des conséquences directes sur l’analyse que l’on peut faire de l’entreprise coopérative. On se propose alors de caractériser cette dernière comme une forme d’organisation politico‐économique originale ‐permettant l’expression d’une réflexivité de nature collective portant sur des objectifs, des règles mais aussi des valeurs‐ dans laquelle les individus construisent eux‐mêmes l’environnement institutionnel qui supporte la coordination dans l’activité productive.     

Flows of people,flows of ideas,and the inequality of nations

The present paper examines a neglected determinant of aggregate productivity: temporary cross-border flows of people. We hypothesize that interaction between people from different nations facilitates the international diffusion of ideas, thus stimulating aggregate productivity. In order to assess the causal impact of people flows on productivity, we construct an instrument for people flows. By analogy to the trade/growth literature, this instrument is derived from a fitted gravity equation involving geographic determinants of bilateral travel flows. Our cross-section analysis reveal that greater international interaction leads to higher productivity; a very similar result, qualitatively as well as quantitatively, is obtained when we employ dynamic panel data methods for the purpose of identification.     

Do German Welfare‐to‐Work Programmes Reduce Welfare Dependency and Increase Employment?

Abstract. During the last decade, many Western economies reformed their welfare systems with the aim of activating welfare recipients by increasing welfare‐to‐work programmes (WTWP) and job‐search enforcement. We evaluate the short‐term effects of three important German WTWP implemented after a major reform in January 2005 (‘Hartz IV’), namely short training, further training with a planned duration of up to three months and public workfare programmes (‘One‐Euro‐Jobs’). Our analysis is based on a combination of a large‐scale survey and administrative data that is rich with respect to individual, household, agency level and regional information. We use this richness of the data to base the econometric evaluation on a selection‐on‐observables approach. We find that short‐term training programmes, on average, increase their participants' employment perspectives. There is also considerable effect heterogeneity across different subgroups of participants that could be exploited to improve the allocation of welfare recipients to the specific programmes and thus increase overall programme effectiveness.     

Greenwash: Corporate Environmental Disclosure under Threat of Audit

We develop an economic model of “greenwash,” in which a firm strategically discloses environmental information and an activist may audit and penalize the firm for disclosing positive but not negative aspects of its environmental profile. We fully characterize the model's equilibria, and derive a variety of predictions about disclosure behavior. We rationalize conflicting results in the empirical literature, finding a nonmonotonic relationship between a firm's expected environmental performance and its environmental disclosures. Greater activist pressure deters greenwash, but induces some firms to disclose less about their environmental performance. Environmental management systems discourage firms with poor expected environmental performance from greenwashing, which may justify public policies encouraging firms to adopt them.