OR vice: Forecasting and classification techniques for narcotics interdiction

Counternarcotics interdiction efforts have traditionally relied on historically determined sorting criteria or “best guess” to find and classify suspected smuggling traffic. We present a more quantitative approach which incorporates customized database applications, graphics software and statistical modeling techniques to develop forecasting and classification models. Preliminary results show that statistical methodology can improve interdiction rates and reduce forecast error. The idea of predictive modeling is thus gaining support in the counterdrug community. The problem is divided into sea, air and land forecasting, only part of which will be addressed here. The maritime problem is solved using multiple regression in lieu of multivariate time series. This model predicts illegal boat counts by behavior and geographic region. We developed support software to present the forecasts and to automate the process of performing periodic model updates. During the period, the model was in use at. Coast Guard Headquarters. Because of deterrence provided by improved intervention, the vessel seizure rate declined from 1 every 36 hours to 1 every 6 months. Due in part to the success of the sea model, the maritime movement of marijuana has ceased to be a major threat. The air problem is more complex, and required us to locally design data collection and display software. Intelligence analysts are using a customized relational database application with a map overlay to perform visual pattern recognition of smuggling routes. We are solving the modeling portion of the air problem using multiple regression for regional forecasts of traffic density, and discriminant analysis to develop tactical models that classify “good guys” and “bad guys”. The air models are still under development, but we discuss some modeling considerations and preliminary results. The land problem is even more difficult, and data collection is still in progress.     

Unemployment and Property Crime: Not a Simple Relationship

A bstract . While previous studies on the unemployment-crime hypothesis have yielded equivocal results, here nonsignificant Pearson correlation coefficients were found for theft rates and the percentage of unemployed men and unemployed women for 20 nations. This raises additional cross-cultural questions about the validity both of strain theories that predict positive correlations, and competing theories that predict negative correlations. Implications for research on the unemployment-crime hypothesis are discussed.     

Ensuring quality in higher education through student fees1

The article questions the myth of inequality and elitism on the grounds of tuition fees in higher education. It argues that the key to a successful transformation in higher education lies in the ability to provide ‘high quality products,’ driven by independent charges or fees and an equitable loan finance system. Unless these conditions are met, the author predicts an overcrowded university system and falling academic standards.     

Has Dodd–Frank affected bank expenses?

Journal of Regulatory Economics - This paper examines the potential effects of the Dodd–Frank Act of 2010 on banks’ noninterest expenses. Using data on U.S. bank holding companies from...     

Process,goal, and social interaction differences in recreation: What makes an activity substitutable

Abstract

In the present study two recreational activities, deer hunting and goose hunting, both similar in form, are compared. The study shows that the activity with the fewest perceived substitutes, deer hunting, also showed higher mean ratings on items measuring the importance of various elements of the experience, such as the process of participation, the goal of the activity, and the social interaction that accompanies the activity by the participants. Deer hunters also reported greater participation in the activity by peers and were more likely to be introduced to the activity by a family member. It is argued that these differences in the importance of the elements of the experiences influence the perceived substitutability of a recreational activity.     

Sample bias in contingent valuation: A comparison of the correction methods

Abstract

This article compares various methods for correcting contingent valuation aggregate benefits when the sample is known to be biased. A sample is defined as the population, and response rates are simulated on the basis of a measure of salience. The simulated response rates suffer from nonresponse bias and selection bias. Coefficient and benefit estimates that result from weighting and self‐selection correction approaches are compared with the true coefficient and benefit estimates. Our results indicate that at both low and high response rates the standard approach leads to bias, and either correction approach will reduce the bias in coefficient and benefit estimates.     

Das Wiederholungsparadoxon

In this paper we discuss how repetition of a single statement affects its perceived credibility. Using an experimental design, our results support previous psychological studies on the “truth-effect”, which have shown that repeated messages are considered more credible than non-repeated messages. In addition, our study sheds light on the unanswered question why the truth-effect vanishes or reverses if statements are repeated too often. Analysis strongly points to a parallel, indirect negative effect, caused by participants showing reactance as a consequence of repetition.