电子渠道建设：农业银行零售业务转型的战略选择

电子银行渠道作为商业银行业务发展的新型分销方式,已成为银行业务经营的重要组成部分,在展示经营形象和竞争实力中发挥着越来越重要的作用。本文分析了当前电子银行业务发展中存在的主要问题、形成的原因,提出了加强电子渠道建设,推动零售业务转型的主要应对措施。     

基于GARCH族模型对H股指数期货的VaR与CVaR值的实证研究

以港交所H股指数期货的收盘价格数据作为实证载体,基于GARCH族模型中残差的正态分布、T分布和广义误差分布（GED）三种不同情形,分别采用GARCH、EGARCH及PARCH模型,计算H股指数期货收益波动序列的VaR和CVaR值,结果表明基于广义误差分布的PARCH模型（GED—PARCH）无论在计算VaR值还是CVaR值方面都是最优的。     

一个青年评估师的春节

正月初五,春节就要过去了。早上坐地铁去公司加班,人虽不多,但节日的欢乐洋溢在每个人的脸上,到处充满了喜庆气氛。     

货币政策应该关注资产价格和汇率吗?

在Rudebusch and Svensson(1999)模型中引入了房地产价格、股票价格和汇率因素,以此为基础推导出最优货币政策反应函数。该反应函数显示,中央银行既要应对产出和通货膨胀变化,还应该考虑资产价格和汇率波动。基于GMM方法的实证分析表明,该反应函数能够较好刻画过去10多年间中国中央银行的货币政策。总体而言,该反应函数可以作为中国货币政策制定和执行的参考框架,货币政策应该对资产价格和汇率波动给予一定程度的关注。     

限额存款保险与中国银行业的市场约束

一般认为,限额存款保险制度让存款人的资产部分地暴露于风险之中,从而市场约束虽然比无保险状态下较弱但仍然有效,因此世界上实行存款保险制度的国家多采用限额保险。本文认为,中国银行业特殊的股权结构,以及长期以来政府对大银行的资金支持形成了存款人规模偏好和银行大而不倒(too big to fail)的预期;这一预期特征必将异化市场约束,进而导致银行陷入无序的规模竞争并激励其风险承担;如果单纯实施限额存款保险制度,非但不能修正中国商业银行市场约束的异化问题,而且将强化公众的大而不倒预期,使市场约束面临更严重的扭曲。     

Insurance Market Effects of Risk Management Metrics

We extend the classical analysis on optimal insurance design to the case when the insurer implements regulatory requirements (Value-at-Risk). Presumably, regulators impose some risk management requirement such as VaR to reduce the insurers’ insolvency risk, as well as to improve the insurance market stability. We show that VaR requirements may better protect the insured and improve economic efficiency, but have stringent negative effects on the insurance market. Our analysis reveals that the insured are better protected in the event of greater loss irrespective of the optimal design from either the insured or the insurer perspective. However, in the presence of the VaR requirement on the insurer, the insurer's insolvency risk might be increased and there are moral hazard issues in the insurance market because the optimal contract is discontinuous.     

建设新农村背景下农业银行信贷扶贫的创新

农业银行信贷扶贫是新农村建设的需要,针对当前信贷扶贫中存在的主要问题及原因,农业银行信贷扶贫必须从信贷扶贫工作意识、信贷扶贫服务手段、信贷扶贫产品、信贷扶贫合作机制、信贷扶贫贴息机制、信贷扶贫风险补偿机制、信贷扶贫担保方式、信贷扶贫工作模式等八个方面进行创新,从而为新农村建设提供金融支持。     

论金融消费者权益的法律保护

金融消费者概念作为消费者概念在金融领域的延伸,越来越受到人们的认可。近年来,伴随着金融市场的快速发展,尤其是金融危机以来,金融消费者保护问题日益突出。分析研究金融消费者权益受侵害的成因并提出相关对策和建议,对于完善金融消费者保护机制和维护金融市场的健康发展具有较强的现实意义。     

论我国创业板退市程序的完善:基于投资者权益保护视角

创业板上市公司退市,无疑会对投资者权益产生重大的影响,如何确保投资者在创业板退市过程中合法权益不受侵害,涉及到方方面面的问题。宏观上如法制环境、市场相关制度1、行政监管、行业自律等,微观上如退市标准和退市程序制度等。其中完备和严格的程序既能保障退市及时、有效地进行,防止退市不畅,又能对退市决定的使用和退市过程加以必要的约束和限制,防止其被滥用。本文通过重点论述海外成熟创业板市场退市程序中的重点程序制度及其之于完善我国创业板退市程序和投资者保护的意义,旨在为我国创业板退市程序建设提供政策建议。     

Seasonality in Canadian treasury bond returns: An institutional explanation

This paper empirically investigates the seasonality in quarterly bond returns in the Canadian government bond market. Four equally weighted bond return indices were calculated for each quarter in the period from 1963:Q2 to 1990:Q3. The seasonality in these quarterly returns was tested and the results support the existence of seasonality in quarterly bond returns in the Canadian government bond market. It appears that bond returns in the last quarter of the year are significantly higher than in any other quarter of the year. This finding contrasts to the results in U.S. studies on Treasury bond returns. An institutional explanation is offered for the documented seasonality in bond returns, linking it to the annual Canada Savings Bond campaign in the last quarter of the year, a unique Canadian phenomenon. This hypothesis is supported by empirical evidence based on a regression analysis. Such finding is consistent with the fact that no seasonality in Treasury bond returns is found in the U.S., at the U.S. Savings Bonds are sold regularly throughout the year.