Demand under product differentiation: an empirical analysis of the US wine market*

Oversupply has led to a number of perplexities for the Australian wine industry in recent times. When disaggregated from the industry level, however, the problem can be better described as a range of attribute‐specific disequilibria. To date, the solutions to this problem have predominantly revolved around supply‐side policies of reducing output through crop thinning or vine pulling. By contrast, this paper focuses on the demand side and argues that the disequilibria may be reduced by gaining a better understanding of the demand for Australian wine. A discrete choice model of product differentiation is used to estimate the demand for wine in Australia's second largest export market, the United States. Implications of the analysis are explored.     

Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?

Even though stock returns are not highly autocorrelated, there is a spurious regression bias in predictive regressions for stock returns related to the classic studies of Yule (1926) and Granger and Newbold (1974) . Data mining for predictor variables interacts with spurious regression bias. The two effects reinforce each other, because more highly persistent series are more likely to be found significant in the search for predictor variables. Our simulations suggest that many of the regressions in the literature, based on individual predictor variables, may be spurious.     

More on money as a medium of exchange

Summary We extend the analysis of Kiyotaki and Wright, who study economies where the commodities that serve as media of exchange (or, commodity money) are determined endogenously. Kiyotaki and Wright consider only steady-state, pure-strategy equilibria; here we allow dynamic and mixed-strategy equilibria. We demonstrate that symmetric, steady-state equilibria in mixed-strategies always exist, while sometimes no such equilibria exist in pure-strategies. We prove that the number of symmetric steady-state equilibria is generically finite. We also show, however, that for some parameter values there exists a continuum of dynamic equilibria. Further, some equilibria display cycles.We thank the National Science Foundation and the University of Pennsylvania Research Foundation for financial support, as well as seminar participants at Stanford University, the London School of Economics, the Econometric Society World Congress in Barcelona, and the Conference on Monetary Theory and Financial Institutions at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis for their comments or suggestions. Alberto Trejos provided research assistance. The views expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve System.     

Determinants of Land Use in Amazônia: A Fine-Scale Spatial Analysis

Wetter areas of the Amazon basin exhibit lower rates of agricultural conversion. Previous analyses, using relatively aggregate data on land cover, have been unable to determine the extent to which this reflects limited access versus unfavorable agroclimatic conditions. This article uses census-tract level data for the Brazilian Amazon to relate forest conversion and pasture productivity to precipitation, soil quality, infrastructure and market access, proximity to past conversion, and protection status. The probability that land is used for agriculture or intensively stocked with cattle declines markedly with increasing rainfall, other things equal.     

Determinants of Co-operative Patronage in Alberta

Co-operative managers face an increasingly heterogeneous pool of potential members. Because these members bring a variety of economic and noneconomic demands to their co-operative, managers must know how different member characteristics and performance perceptions influence their decision to patronize a co-operative. This study applies three models of co-operative patronage to survey data from rural Alberta. A Poisson regression is used to determine the factors that explain the number of co-operatives used, while an index of co-operative patronage measures the relative intensity of co-operative versus proprietary firm usage. A third model contucts a Tobit analysis of the amount of business conducted with each of several different types of co-operatives. The results show that older farmers tend to partonize more co-operatives, and larger farms do a greater share of their business with co-operatives than do smaller fiarms. Farmers who believe co-operatives offer innovative products and services are more likely to patronize them, while a belief that co-operatives should play an active role in noneconomic matters is not important.     

Proxy-quality thresholds: Theory and applications

We consider alternative models of a regression containing a proxy for an unobserved regressor. For each model at most two pieces of prior information are necessary to determine the sign of any regressor coefficient: the sign of the partial correlation between the proxy and the unobserved regressor, and a lower bound on the partial or simple correlation between the proxy and the unobserved regressor. We apply our technique to investment and leverage regressions that contain a proxy for the incentive to invest. In both cases proxy quality must be high for the coefficient of interest to be non-zero.