UK Assessment: Can Recession be Avoided?

There is a growing danger that the UK will suffer a serious recession in 1999. In this article, Adrian Cooper assesses the risks to the OEF/LBS forecast and considers what steps policy-makers might take to support demand and activity. With the weakness of consumer and business confidence currently posing the biggest threat, they must be seen to be decisive, with further substantial interest rate cuts essential.     

Interne Revision &; Controlling — Instrumente moderner Unternehmensführung in Kooperation

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Credit Risk Models – Do They Deliver Their Promises? A Quantitative Assessment

We develop a framework to assess the statistical significance of expected default frequency calculated by credit risk models. This framework is then used to analyse the quality of two commercially available models that have become popular among practitioners: KMV Credit Monitor and RiskCalc from Moody's.
Using a unique database of expected default probability from both vendors, we study both the consistency of the prediction and its timeliness. We introduce the concept of cumulative accuracy profile (CAP) that allows to see in one curve the percentage of defaulting companies captured by the models one year in advance. We also use the Miller's information test to see if the models add information to the S&P rating.
The result of the analysis indicates that these models indeed add relevant information not accounted for by rating alone. Moreover, with respect to rating agencies, the models predict defaults more than ten months in advance on average.
(J.E.L.: C52).     

Trans-organizational innovation: a framework for research

Information and communication technologies, the evolution of a pattern of innovation based on technology fusion and the transition towards a knowledge-based economy are dominant trends. These trends support trans-organitational innovation, which typically involves the design of complex and technologically hybrid products. Trans-organizational innovation involves generating new knowledge out of knowledge inputs which are distributed across disciplines and organizations which may be geographically dispersed. This is critically dependent on management processes associated with learning. Learning is a contextually situated and interaction-intensive process, which during product innovation involves mutual interaction between characteristics of product and those of context. Such interactions continually evolve the designed form and functionalig of a product. Existing research has tended to neglect the complexities involved in trans-organitational innovation. A product-in-context framework for analyzing the trans-organitational innovation process is detailed in this paper. This framework can be used to examine the relationship between critical features at Product and context which mediate learning during trans-organizational product design and innovation and account for product design variation.     

The impact of the foreign corrupt practices act on us exports

In 1977 the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) was enacted to penalize US firms and their employees for paying bribes to foreign government officials. If bribe payments influence the awarding of contracts and the FCPA regulation differentially affects US exporters compared to foreign competitors, then US exporters' bribe-paying ability and market share would be expected to decline. This study provides empirical evidence that the FCPA had a negative effect on US exports to non-Latin American countries but not to bribery prone ones in Latin America.     

Constructing migration: Infrastructure,poverty and development in KwaZulu‐Natal

Migration and population movement are probably the most neglected of the significant dynamics behind rural poverty in South Africa. Little is known about how people move from place to place, and much of what we thought we knew may be incorrect. In KwaZulu‐Natal job search is no longer the single dominating reason given for migration. Instead, infrastructure ties with it for first place today, with land close behind. The first article in this two‐part report notes that as many as two thirds of the province's disadvantaged families have broken away from their communities of origin and moved at least once during their lifetimes. Perhaps three million have migrated in the last fifteen years. A second unexpected finding is the predominance of rural‐to‐rural migration. Three quarters of all moves recorded were rural to rural, with many orientated towards advantaged rural areas around small towns and secondary cities. Results show how streams are channelled towards poverty or opportunity, and argue for a review of prevailing concepts of rural‐urban relations which structure delivery efforts. The second article, to follow later, notes that recorded income levels are now higher in some rural destination areas than in the urban shack communities that accommodate rural‐to‐urban migrants. Results of various studies presented show how access to information affects migration patterns, and the article also explores the role of infrastructure as a determining force in the regional distribution of population and as a factor in people's own bootstrap anti‐poverty efforts.