On the Revelation of Private Information in the U.S. Crop Insurance Program

The crop insurance program is a prominent facet of U.S. farm policy. The participation of private insurance companies as intermediaries is justified on the basis of efficiency gains. These gains may arise from either decreased transaction costs through better established delivery channels and/or the revelation of private information. We find empirical evidence suggesting that private information is revealed by insurance companies via their reinsurance decisions. However, it is unlikely that such information will be incorporated into subsequent premium rates by the government.     

A New Development Database. Deposit Insurance around the World

In the past two decades, in a series of banking crises aroundthe world, banks have become systematically insolvent. Thesecrises have occurred in developed and developing economies alike.To make such financial system breakdowns less likely and tolimit their costs if they occur, policymakers feel the needfor financial safety nets. These include such policies as implicitor explicit deposit insurance, a lender of last resort functionof the central bank, bank insolvency resolution procedures,and bank regulation and supervision. Of these policies, explicitdeposit insurance has been gaining popularity in recent years.Since the 1980s the number of countries with explicit depositinsurance schemes almost tripled, with most OECD countries andan increasing number of developing economies adopting some formof explicit depositor protection. In 1994 deposit insurancebecame the standard for the newly created single banking marketof the European Union. Establishing an explicit deposit insurancescheme became part of the generally accepted best practice advicegiven to developing economies.     

Systemic risk measurement: Multivariate GARCH estimation of CoVaR

We modify Adrian and Brunnermeier’s (2011) CoVaR, the VaR of the financial system conditional on an institution being in financial distress. We change the definition of financial distress from an institution being exactly at its VaR to being at most at its VaR. This change allows us to consider more severe distress events, to backtest CoVaR, and to improve its consistency (monotonicity) with respect to the dependence parameter. We define the systemic risk contribution of an institution as the change from its CoVaR in its benchmark state (defined as a one-standard deviation event) to its CoVaR under financial distress. We estimate the systemic risk contributions of four financial industry groups consisting of a large number of institutions for the sample period June 2000 to February 2008 and the 12 months prior to the beginning of the crisis. We also investigate the link between institutions’ contributions to systemic risk and their characteristics.     

Re-examining the real interest rate parity hypothesis (RIPH) using panel unit root tests with asymmetry and cross-section dependence

This paper investigates the validity of the real interest rate parity hypothesis (RIPH) using a panel unit root approach. For this purpose, first we estimate the possible nonlinear data-generating processes of the real interest rate differential series and using these estimates determine which panel unit root test is better for analyzing the RIPH. To this end, smooth transition autoregressive and threshold autoregressive (TAR) models are estimated for two different panels of countries: G7 and post-Soviet transition economies. The results show that the data displays both strong asymmetry and high transition speed. Therefore, secondly, we propose a new panel unit root test where the alternative is stationary with asymmetric TAR adjustment, and provide their empirical power properties. Finally, we demonstrate that our newly proposed test is able to provide conclusive evidence in favor of the RIPH in contrast to the other panel unit root tests considered.     

Microdynamics of Turkey's Export Boom in the 2000s

This paper examines the microdynamics behind the dramatic export boom experienced by Turkey during the 2000s. Using disaggregated exporter‐level customs data covering the universe of export transactions for Turkey during the period 2002–11, we characterise firm‐level dynamics in the export sector and we decompose export growth at the aggregate, sectoral and destination market levels to identify the role of firm turnover, destination turnover and product turnover. We show that year‐to‐year aggregate export growth is dominated by growth in continuous exporters, and for these, growth is dominated by exports to their continued destinations and of their continued products. However, the observed high degree of churning across firms, destinations and products accounts for a substantial part of Turkey's export growth over longer periods. The patterns of microdynamics of export growth are verified across sectors and across groups of destination markets with some exceptions regarding exports to new emerging markets where net exporter entry plays a more critical role for export growth over longer periods.     

Nonlinearities in emerging stock markets: evidence from Europe's two largest emerging markets

Recent developments in time series analysis allow proper modelling of nonlinearities in economic and financial variables. A growing body of research was dedicated to investigation of potential nonlinearities in conditional mean of many economic and financial variables, mainly concentrating in developed economies. However, nonlinearities in financial variables in developing economies have not been fully examined yet. In this article we investigate potential nonlinearity and cyclical behaviour of stock returns in Europe's two largest emerging stock markets, mainly in the Greek and Turkish stock markets. Specifically, we use STAR family models, which allow to model nonlinearities in the conditional mean, for modelling monthly returns on stock exchange indices of the Athens Stock Exchange and Istanbul Stock Exchange. Although we find no nonlinearity in conditional variance, we do find strong evidence in favour of nonlinear adjustment of stock returns. It is found that allowing for nonlinearity in conditional mean results in a superior model and provides good out-of-sample forecasts, which contradicts to efficient market hypothesis.     

Size, book-to-market ratio and macroeconomic news

Little is known about the reactions of daily returns on portfolios with different characteristics to unexpected changes in macroeconomic conditions. This paper fills this void by analyzing the reactions of daily returns on portfolios formed on size and book-to-market ratio to news about a wide range of macroeconomic variables. Returns on different portfolios not only react to different news but also react differently to the same news. Reactions of portfolios to macroeconomic news also change over the business cycle. Results are strongest for news about Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls in expansions. Both at daily and monthly frequencies, large and growth firms react differently to employment news from small and value firms in expansions but not in recessions. Differences in the sensitivities of expected future cash flows to employment news in expansions can help explain differences in the observed reactions.     

Globalization and the welfare state

This paper analyzes the impact of globalization on the Welfare State (WS). Some argue that globalization poses a serious threat to WS and therefore questions its sustainability. On the other hand, some others suggest that WS has to expand more as economies are integrating. After reviewing different hypothesis on the relationship between globalization and WS, we empirically examine the relationship by using 32 countries covering 1980 through 2010. According to the estimation results, there is no direct linkage between globalization and the WS. However the reaction of the WS against globalization is found to vary dramatically depending on welfare regimes. We find evidence in favor of compensation hypothesis in Social Democrat, Conservative and Mediterranean Welfare State regimes, whereas efficiency effect is in place in liberal Welfare States.     

UNION WAGE COMPRESSION AND SKILL ACQUISITION

In this paper, I examine the relationship between unionisation and total output in an economy with a dual labour market, heterogeneous agents, and human capital investment. My primary focus is the skill acquisition channel, through which unionization affects total output. I theoretically demonstrate that the skill premium, and thus human capital investment, is determined by the prevalence of unions in high‐ or low‐skill‐intensive sectors. In particular, if a low (high)‐skill sector is unionised, then the skill premium is higher (lower), ensuring a larger (smaller) high‐skill sector, irrespective of the unions bargaining power. To test this hypothesis, I also empirically investigate the effects of unionisation on total productivity. The results indicate that through the reallocation of labour, unionisation induces an expansion of high‐skill‐intensive sectors, while low‐skill‐intensive sectors contract.     

Data-driven manufacturer-retailer collaboration under competition

This research employs game theoretic models to investigate how and when data-driven collaborations between manufacturers and retailers are beneficial. In the models, two symmetric retailers each offer two products from two different manufacturers. Each manufacturer may choose to collaborate with one or both retailers through data-driven initiatives in providing retail value to the consumers. The results show that the main incentive behind these collaborations arise from the efficient allocation of resources. Surprisingly, greater brand differentiation reduces profit margins and the incentive to collaborate. We also find that market leaders can endogenously arise through data-driven collaborations.