Impact of economic uncertainty in a small open economy: the case of Chile

We construct the first news-based economic uncertainty index for Chile, which allowed us to rebuild 23 years of the history of economic uncertainty in the country and quantify its impact on the economy. We find that an increase in economic uncertainty conveys a fall in GDP, investment, and employment, even after accounting for the small open economy nature of Chile. In contrast to previous studies for big and developed economies, we do not find evidence of an overshooting effect when uncertainty dissipates; therefore, increases in economic uncertainty have negative effects on the economy, even in the long-run. Our estimates suggest that these impacts range from 10% to 20% for aggregate investment, 2.5% to 5% for GDP, and 1.3% to 4.2% for employment. Extensions suggest that economic uncertainty affects both mining and non-mining investment, with the former showing a more pronounced decline. We also find that the bulk of effect of economic uncertainty on aggregate investment is via private investment, with some short-run impacts on public investment. Moreover, compared to the GDP response, aggregate consumption responds in almost the same way to an economic uncertainty shock.     

A formal set of algorithms for project scheduling with critical path scheduling/material requirements planning

A hybrid model combining the critical path method (CPM) with material requirements planning (MRP) has been suggested (Aquilano) as a more robust method for scheduling projects and resources. The primary advantage of this technique is that resource acquisition lead times as well as inventory records are integrated into the process of computing the project schedule. This paper presents a set of formal CPM/MRP algorithms that may be used to compute the early and late start schedules as well as the critical sequence. A number of modifications have been incorporated into the CPM/MRP technique to improve the viability of CPM/MRP as a tool for application to actual project scheduling problems. A simple example project is used to demonstrate the CPM/MRP model.The CPM/MRP technique is designed to overcome a basic shortcoming of previously suggested project scheduling methodologies. CPM was initially designed to schedule projects subject to technological constraints only. Later, additional techniques were introduced to consider constraints upon various aspects of resource availability (Davis). None of the suggested techniques attempted to integrate resource acquisition lead time with the generation of requirements for resources. Obviously such a technique would require the integration of inventory records into the scheduling technique.The combination of CPM and MRP provides a possible vehicle for overcoming this drawback in CPM. Both CPM and MRP are linear models that generate schedules based upon precedence relationships. An integrated approach is useful since activities could be scheduled subject to information about the inventory position. An activity may be scheduled as soon as all resources are on hand. It is only delayed by those resources which must be acquired and activities which proceed it in the project network.CPM/MRP also shows promise as an aid to constrained resource scheduling since computations regarding resource availability are an integrated part of the technique. The effect of resource allocation decisions is immediately evident in the MRP-type time phased records.Results of the tests run on short projects of up to 300 activities and resources have shown that the program does work satisfactorily. Execution time for a 300 item network tested was approximately ten seconds on a CYBER 175.     

Possible Implications of the Dawson Inquiry for the ACCC

The ACCC's role is to enforce the Trade Practices Act This article critically assesses key recommendations for change contained in some of the major submissions to the Dawson Inquiry and their implications for the ACCC.     

Economic growth—meritorious or meretricious: A review of social limits to growth

The recent literature on economic growth has seen a reemergence of the questioning of the value of economic growth. Prominent among this new literature is a set of contributions which seek to evaluate the social implications of the pattern of economic growth. The purpose of this paper is to review an important component of this literature—Hirsch's recent book Social Limits to Growth. The central arguments of Hirsch's analysis are evaluated from a general perspective and compared to the balance of the literature. All of the recent additions in this area seem to question the role of markets and values derived based on consumer sovereignty to establish the end results of economic activity and to evaluate the alternative possible resource allocations to obtain them.     

ANTITHETIC VARIATES FOR MONTE CARLO ESTIMATION OF PROBABILITIES

This paper explores some possibilities for variance reduction by the use of antithetic variates when estimating probabilities.     

Health care and philanthropy: where are we headed?

Peering into health-care's future means examining social, economic and political issues. Knowing what's coming will help development professionals deal with this new world.     

Will Rio stick: Barriers to global cooperation on CO2 abatement?

The Rio Earth Summit resulted in commitments to reduce CO₂ emissions from all industrialized countries, but there are many banners to overcome before its full objectives can be met. One major obstacle is carbon leakage, the increase in developing country emissions predicted as a result of OECD policies for abatement. Causes of carbon leakage are discussed here and its magnitude assessed. The effect is found to be relatively small - nevertheless, in the long run policies that provide incentives for CO₂ abatement globally will become imperative.     

Impacts of Policy Reforms on the Supply of Mexican Labor to U.S. Farms: New Evidence from Mexico

The availability of immigrant farm-workers from Mexico is a critical factor affecting the U.S. fresh fruit and vegetable sector. This paper uses retrospective panel data from rural Mexico to examine the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Immigration Reform and Control Act on the supply of migrant labor to the United States. We find that, in contrast to expectations, both policies were associated with an increase in migration to U.S. farm jobs from rural Mexico.     

The Measurement and Characteristics of Professional Forecasters' Uncertainty

Several statistical issues that arise in the construction and interpretation of measures of uncertainty from forecast surveys that include probability questions are considered, with application to the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. Substantial heterogeneity of individual forecasters' uncertainty is found, together with significant persistence in their relative uncertainty, which is a new finding in professional forecast surveys. It is an individual characteristic akin to the individual optimism and pessimism already established in the literature on point forecasts; the latter is also found in the current dataset, now in a bivariate sense with respect to joint inflation and output growth point forecasts. Whether disagreement among point forecasts is a useful indicator of uncertainty is shown to depend on the underlying macroeconomic environment. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Enriching Urban Policy Mobilities Research

Attending to the recent and growing debates on urban policy mobilities, this commentary offers a view towards an intellectual and methodological reflexiveness for urban policy mobilities researchers. We consider connections between the various approaches and considerations that researchers have argued for in regards to doing policy mobilities research. In doing so, we argue that new pathways for research can be usefully carved out through attention to embodiment, or a peopling of the geographies of policy mobilities.