Derivation of Cost of Capital and Equity Rates from Market Data

Use of the discounted cash flow (DCF) technique in investment and appraisal situations depends on readily available and reliable estimates of cost of capital and equity rates. Previous research on estimating equity rates and cost of capital from financial data sources is extremely limited and includes no evidence on the consistency of rates derived from alternative data sources. This paper derives estimates of equity rates and cost of capital from three alternative commonly available data sources. Estimates are derived separately for operating properties and for homebuilder/land developers on both a before- and after-corporate tax basis. The alternative data sources are found to yield consistent and reliable estimates of equity rates and cost of capital. Rates estimated from these sources are sufficiently accurate and reliable for most investment or appraisal applications.     

Money,nonconvex preferences,and the existence of equilibrium: A note

Nonconvexities play a major role in several theories of money. This note suggests an additional such role. In particular, an economy is presented which fails to have a competitive equilibrium in the absence of fiat money. When fiat money is present, a steady-state competitive, equilibrium does exist and has the feature that money necessarily has value. This is because in any steady state, monetary equilibrium relative prices are bounded in such a way that the discontinuous portions of excess demand functions may become irrelevant.     

Macroeconomic Policy Impacts on United States Agriculture: A Simulation Analysis

United States monetary and fiscal policies influence the domestic agricultural economy directly and, through international linkages, indirectly. This study estimates the magnitude and statistical influence of coefficients relating U.S. macroeconomic policy to the U.S. agricultural economy through domestic and foreign markets. Specific objectives are to specify and estimate a general equilibrium quarterly econometric model of the U.S. macroeconomy and simulate the impact of federal deficit spending on real interest rates, real exchange rates, and net exports of agricultural products. Three hypotheses were tested. The first hypothesis that an increase in federal deficit spending increases the real interest rate could not be rejected; a $100 billion reduction in the U.S. deficit was estimated to reduce real interest rates by two percentage points or more. The second hypothesis that an increase in real interest rate increases the real value of the U.S. dollar in foreign exchange markets had strong support and could not be rejected. A third hypothesis that a rise in the real value of the dollar reduces net exports of U.S. farm products also could not be rejected. Results indicate that the U.S. agriculture would benefit from the lower exchange value associated with an ‘optimal’ macroeconomic policy. That policy initially made the overall U.S. economy perform less satisfactorily but that performance improves over time.     

Uncertainty orientation: Expalaining diffeerences in purchase involvement and external search

This study incorporates uncertainty orientation, an individual difference variable concerned with cognitive response to uncertainty, and purchase involvement in a multiple indicator model of consumer external search activity. The model is tested using partial least squares in two contexts: for durable purchase decisions. Purchase involvement was found to be a multidimensional construct and only the experienced purchaserisk dimension was captured in the measurement models. For durables, uncertainty-oriented consumers experienced greater purchase risk and engaged in greater external seach than certainty-oriented consumers. For nondurables, uncertainty-oriented consumers experienced lower purchase risk than certainty-oriented consumers. Although the results are modest, they suggest that uncertainty orientation might be fruitfully examined in other applied contexts. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Incentives for Managing Accounting Information: Property-Liability Insurer Stock-Charter Conversions

Incentives to manage accounting information are examined within 63 property‐liability insurance company conversions from mutual ownership to common stock charter. In the conversion process, policyholders' embedded equity claims must be valued. Since mutuals have no separately traded equity, accounting numbers are a critical input in this valuation. Incentives for surplus management vary across firms; the strongest evidence of surplus management is observed among firms where the mutual's executives become the firm's principal stockholders following conversion. The evidence suggests that converting firms manage accounting information primarily by adjusting liabilities and selectively establishing investment losses—not by altering claims settlement policy.     

Gender equality still on the European agenda—but for how long?

While the momentum has certainly not yet disappeared from the gender equality agenda within Europe, the impact of that agenda remains patchy. Progress within individual member states has been significant but not always steady or cumulative. At the European level more attention has been paid to the gender pay gap but policy initiatives remain weak. The loss of the equal opportunities pillar in the new employment guidelines puts this momentum at risk but the new phase still includes commitments to an integrated strategy of gender mainstreaming and equal opportunities.     

VALUE CREATION AT ANHEUSER-BUSCH: A REAL OPTIONS EXAMPLE

The management of Anheuser-Busch created $11.5 billion of shareholder value between 1996 and 1998, a period in which U.S. demand for beer was flat and the company's profits grew only modestly. Of that $11.5 billion, the authors estimate that nearly $10 billion can be attributed to the growth options created or expanded by the company during that period. While divesting itself of unrelated businesses, such as snack foods, Busch stadium, and the St. Louis Cardinals baseball franchise, the company began purchasing minority equity interests in brewing concerns in markets with growing demand for beer, including Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, and the Philippines.
The main undertaking of the paper is to use the real options valuation method to estimate the growth option value that Anheuser-Busch has created through its investments in joint ventures in foreign markets. The authors focus specifically on a joint venture in the Argentina/Chile market, and argue that this arrangement gives the company the flexibility to invest in a complete brewing and distribution system in that market after learning about the market's potential. In other words, the joint venture creates a call option on the Argentina/Chile market. Traditional DCF analysis, which ignores the flexibility in the strategy, assigns a negative NPV to the joint venture. But explicit recognition of the "option-ality" built into the investment results in a very different valuation—as well as a plausible explanation of the growth option value in the company's stock price.
As the Anheuser-Busch example also illustrates, valuation of the real option depends critically on the assumption about the volatility of the future value of the investment projects. The authors provide an intuitively useful way for managers to examine their own volatility assumptions—one that draws on the probability assessments that are part of the well-known Black-Scholes model.