Incentives for Managing Accounting Information: Property-Liability Insurer Stock-Charter Conversions

Incentives to manage accounting information are examined within 63 property‐liability insurance company conversions from mutual ownership to common stock charter. In the conversion process, policyholders' embedded equity claims must be valued. Since mutuals have no separately traded equity, accounting numbers are a critical input in this valuation. Incentives for surplus management vary across firms; the strongest evidence of surplus management is observed among firms where the mutual's executives become the firm's principal stockholders following conversion. The evidence suggests that converting firms manage accounting information primarily by adjusting liabilities and selectively establishing investment losses—not by altering claims settlement policy.     

Gender equality still on the European agenda—but for how long?

While the momentum has certainly not yet disappeared from the gender equality agenda within Europe, the impact of that agenda remains patchy. Progress within individual member states has been significant but not always steady or cumulative. At the European level more attention has been paid to the gender pay gap but policy initiatives remain weak. The loss of the equal opportunities pillar in the new employment guidelines puts this momentum at risk but the new phase still includes commitments to an integrated strategy of gender mainstreaming and equal opportunities.     

VALUE CREATION AT ANHEUSER-BUSCH: A REAL OPTIONS EXAMPLE

The management of Anheuser-Busch created $11.5 billion of shareholder value between 1996 and 1998, a period in which U.S. demand for beer was flat and the company's profits grew only modestly. Of that $11.5 billion, the authors estimate that nearly $10 billion can be attributed to the growth options created or expanded by the company during that period. While divesting itself of unrelated businesses, such as snack foods, Busch stadium, and the St. Louis Cardinals baseball franchise, the company began purchasing minority equity interests in brewing concerns in markets with growing demand for beer, including Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, and the Philippines.
The main undertaking of the paper is to use the real options valuation method to estimate the growth option value that Anheuser-Busch has created through its investments in joint ventures in foreign markets. The authors focus specifically on a joint venture in the Argentina/Chile market, and argue that this arrangement gives the company the flexibility to invest in a complete brewing and distribution system in that market after learning about the market's potential. In other words, the joint venture creates a call option on the Argentina/Chile market. Traditional DCF analysis, which ignores the flexibility in the strategy, assigns a negative NPV to the joint venture. But explicit recognition of the "option-ality" built into the investment results in a very different valuation—as well as a plausible explanation of the growth option value in the company's stock price.
As the Anheuser-Busch example also illustrates, valuation of the real option depends critically on the assumption about the volatility of the future value of the investment projects. The authors provide an intuitively useful way for managers to examine their own volatility assumptions—one that draws on the probability assessments that are part of the well-known Black-Scholes model.     

AN EXAMINATION OF THE SMALL-FIRM EFFECT ON THE BASIS OF SKEWNESS PREFERENCE

This paper tests the hypothesis that the small-firm effect can be explained on the basis of investor preference for positive skewness. Traditional stochastic dominance methodology is extended to consider portfolios including variable weights of investment in a riskless asset. Including a riskless asset provides the result that small-firm portfolios stochastically dominate all other portfolios. This result, which is derived on the basis of 19 years of monthly returns, indicates that the small-firm effect cannot be fully attributed to tax effects, benchmark error, or incorrect assumptions of the CAPM about investor risk aversion.     

Teaching undergraduate econometrics with GRETL

This paper reviews GRETL, a software package for econometrics. Mainly it discusses GRETL's merits as an aid in teaching undergraduate econometrics. This discussion is in two parts. First one author, an instructor, reviews the teaching of undergraduate econometrics with GRETL. Then the second author, a student, discusses the experience of being introduced to GRETL as part of the introductory course and of putting it to work as part of his employment. The paper briefly discusses GRETL as a research tool. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A model for identifying and ranking dangerous accident locations: a case study in Flanders

These days, road safety has become a major concern in most modern societies. In this respect, the determination of road locations that are more dangerous than others (black spots or also called sites with promise) can help in better scheduling road safety policies. The present paper proposes a multivariate model to identify and rank sites according to their total expected cost to the society. Bayesian estimation of the model via a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is discussed in this paper. To illustrate the proposed model, accident data from 23,184 accident locations in Flanders (Belgium) are used and a cost function proposed by the European Transport Safety Council is adopted to illustrate the model. It is shown in the paper that the model produces insightful results that can help policy makers in prioritizing road infrastructure investments.     

Interest rate smoothing and financial stability

Central banks smooth fluctuations in interest rates based on a belief that this policy promotes financial stability. This belief is based on a presumption that the direct effect of less interest rate volatility on a bank's likelihood of insolvency is the predominant effect of this policy. The main point of this paper is that these policies also give rise to indirect effects that lower financial stability. These indirect effects occur because the policy itself alters bank behavior. In effect, if the central bank provides (liquidity) insurance (at zero premia), it may introduce a classic moral hazard problem that encourages risk taking by banks. As a result, to maintain a given degree of financial stability, a bank regulator may, in fact, need to impose a higher prudential capital requirement when an interest rate smoothing policy is in place. The paper concludes that the link between interest rate smoothing policy and financial stability may be more complicated than is generally recognized.     

Social Structural Inquiries – Part 2: Statistical Methods and Process Models

A tightened linkage between theory and data would enhance cumulative sociological knowledge. Toward that end this article selectivity reviews and develops social structural theories – theories that explain data. It focuses on statistical methods and process models because both approaches advance cumulative social science, and the tension between their advocates works against disciplinary solidarity. Boudon’s structural schematics cover all of the examples, suggesting a common perspective that can lessen the friction among practitioners of these forms of quantitative analysis and refocus much of the diversity of current sociology. An erratum to this article is available at .