Dividend timing and behavior in laboratory asset markets

Summary. This paper investigates the effect of dividend timing on price bubbles and endogenous expectations in twenty-six laboratory asset markets. In ten "A1" markets, a single dividend is paid at the end of the trading horizon. In nine "A2" markets, dividends are paid at the end of each trading period. In seven "A3" markets, some of the dividends are paid at the end of the trading horizon, and the rest are paid on a per-period basis. The results indicate that price bubbles are most likely in A2 markets, less likely in A3 markets, and least likely in A1 markets. Six distinct hypotheses are considered. The data suggest that the concentration of dividend value at a single point in time helps to create common expectations, and thus significantly reduce the incidence of bubbles. Also, the results underscore the difficulty facing econometric tests on field data where fundamental value has to be approximated.     

Conditional Cooperation and Voluntary Contributions to Public Goods

We compare a partners condition , where the same small group of subjects plays a repeated public good game, to a strangers condition , where subjects play this game in changing group formations. From the first period onward, subjects in the partners condition contribute significantly more to the public good than subjects in the strangers condition. Strangers' contributions show continual decay, while partners' contributions fluctuate on a high level prior to decreasing in the final periods. We interpret subjects' behaviour in terms of conditional cooperation which is characterized by both future-oriented and reactive behaviour.
JEL classifications: C 91; C 92; H 41     

Cost-effectiveness of foreign aid programs in the baltics

After the upheavals in Central and Eastern Europe in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the Western world has given considerable aid to the fledgling democracies. In this paper we draw a summary from Baltic experience in the fields of educational programs, scientific and environmental programs, and commercial projects in banking, taxation, and energy. We analyze the motivation and identify different possible effects of foreign aid. We signal possible inefficiencies arising from the lack of coordination of foreign aid, deal with possible waste as being a form of loss in cost-effectiveness, and address the policies followed by aid-providing agencies. Finally, we suggest ways that can help to achieve cost-effectiveness by assisting the donor and recipient in maximizing benefits gained and possibly reducing costs.     

Sequential and multinomial logit: A nested model

A nested model is presented which has both the sequential and the multinomial logit model as special cases. This model provides a simple test to investigate the validity of these specifications. Some theoretical properties of the model are discussed. During the analysis a distribution function is derived, which, to the best of our knowledge, has not been used before. This distribution is shown to be a generalization of the typeI extreme-value distribution. Monte Carlo experiments and empirical applications of the model are presented.     

A multivariate Poisson mixture model for marketing applications

This paper describes a multivariate Poisson mixture model for clustering supermarket shoppers based on their purchase frequency in a set of product categories. The multivariate nature of the model accounts for cross-selling effects between the purchases made in different product categories. However, for computational reasons, most multivariate approaches limit the covariance structure by including just one common interaction term, or by not including any covariance at all. Although this reduces the number of parameters significantly, it is often too simplistic as typically multiple interactions exist on different levels. This paper proposes a theoretically more complete variance/covariance structure of the multivariate Poisson model, based on domain knowledge or preliminary statistical analysis of significant purchase interaction effects in the data. Consequently, the model does not contain more parameters than necessary, whilst still accounting for the existing covariance in the data. Practically, retail category managers can use the model to devise customized merchandising strategies.     

Vertical integration as a remedy for imbalances in the ‘Porterian’ value system. The Dutch financial securities industry at the beginning of the 20th century

The way of accounting for vertical integration, of this paper is based on the ‘Porterian’ value system and focuses on the relation between the creation and appropriation of value. The essence of a value system is that at each stage in the system value is created and added to the value created at previous stages. We propose that firms which are unable to appropriate the value they create at the stage they currently inhabit, would find it advantageous to integrate vertically towards stages offering a more attractive relation between value appropriation and value creation. This argument will be illustrated here by the case of a large Dutch bank that integrated vertically towards securities trading.     

Model selection in random effects models for directed graphs using approximated Bayes factors

With the development of an MCMC algorithm, Bayesian model selection for the p ₂ model for directed graphs has become possible. This paper presents an empirical exploration in using approximate Bayes factors for model selection. For a social network of Dutch secondary school pupils from different ethnic backgrounds it is investigated whether pupils report that they receive more emotional support from within their own ethnic group. Approximated Bayes factors seem to work, but considerable margins of error have to be reckoned with.     

Fiscal Equalization and Tax Enforcement

In many countries organized as federations, fiscal equalization schemes have been implemented to mitigate vertical or horizontal imbalances. Such schemes usually imply that the member states of the federation can only partly internalize (marginal) tax revenue before redistribution. Aside from the internalized marginal revenue, referred to as the marginal tax‐back rate, the remainder is redistributed. We investigate the extent to which state‐level authorities in such federation under‐exploit their tax bases. By means of a stylized model, we show that the member states have an incentive to align the effective tax rates on their residents with the level of the marginal tax‐back rate. We empirically test the model using state‐level and micro‐level taxpayer data, OLS regressions and natural experiments. Our empirical findings support the results from our theoretical model. Particularly, we find that states with a higher marginal tax‐back rate exploit the tax base to a higher extent.     

The Labor-Managed Firm: Permanent or Start-Up Subsidies?

We explore a new argument that seeks to explain the near absence of the labor-managed firm or cooperative, despite a range of inefficiencies attributed to the present-day capitalist firm. We derive the crucial condition for the emergence of labor-managed firms and show that it is unduly restrictive from an efficiency point of view. The policy implication is that public intervention to promote labor-managed firms should primarily be in the form of start-up subsidies rather than in providing permanent tax subsidies.