Niedrige Preis-Dividende-Verhältnisse: Einstiegssignal für den Aktienmarkt?

Zusammenfassung  Die Finanzmarktkrise ging weltweit mit einem Rückgang der Aktienkurse einher. Sind diese niedrigen Aktien-Bewertungen als überreaktion mit der Aussicht auf baldige Korrektur zu bewerten? Oder bringen sie realistische Erwartungen einer schw?cheren Entwicklung b?rsennotierter deutscher Unternehmen zum Ausdruck? K?nnen anhand der aktuellen Entwicklung der Preis-Dividende-Verh?ltnisse Aussagen über die zukünftige Kurs- und Dividendenentwicklung gemacht werden? Prof. Dr. Oliver Holtem?ller, 37, ist Juniorprofessor für Allgemeine Volkswirtschaftslehre an der Fakult?t für Wirtschaftswissenschaften der Rheinisch-Westf?lischen Technischen Hochschule Aachen.     

Konjunkturschlaglicht: Geldpolitik im Dilemma

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Transaction cost economics in global sourcing: Assessing regional differences and implications for performance

This paper addresses two gaps in current research on transaction cost economics (TCE): first, the fundamental claim suggesting that firms that align their governance structure to transactions according to TCE perform better than those that do not, and second, the application of TCE to global sourcing transactions. A research model is presented and evaluated using a set of 150 relationships between Swiss buyers and foreign suppliers. The findings suggest that there are significant differences in how transactions and governance structures are aligned with varying performance and with suppliers from Western Europe as compared to suppliers from other regions.     

A problem-adjusted genetic algorithm for flexibility design

Many present markets for goods and services have highly volatile demand due to short life cycles and strong competition in saturated environments. Determination of capacity levels is difficult because capacities often need to be set long before demand realizes. In order to avoid capacity-demand mismatches, operations managers employ mix-flexible resources which allow them to shift excess demands to unused capacities. The Flexibility Design Problem (FDP) models the decision on the optimal configuration of a flexible (manufacturing) network. FDP is a difficult stochastic optimization problem, for which traditional exact approaches are not able to solve but the smallest instances in reasonable time. We develop a Flexibility Design Genetic Algorithm (FGA) that exploits qualitative insights into the structure of good solutions, such as the well-established chaining principle, to enhance its performance. FGA is compared to a commercial solver, a simple GA, and a Simulated Annealing local search on instances of up to 15 demand types and resources. Experimental evidence shows that the proposed approach outperforms the competing methods with respect to both computing time and solution quality.     

“On the Merger of Two Companies,” Hans Gerber and Elias S. W. Shiu,July 2006

Abstract

Bankruptcy risk falls to pension plan participants if a plan sponsor fails when a defined benefit (DB) pension plan is underfunded. This article examines the incidence of that risk and how it changes when public policy provides a guarantee fund. Although government-based guarantee funds are in a unique position to provide pension protection, primarily because of the extent to which the risk of sponsor default is systematic in nature, a looming question is the extent to which such guarantees are exposed to moral hazard. The article focuses on that question using data from four Canadian provinces, including one (Ontario) that operates a guarantee fund for pensions. The findings show that plan assets per DB-plan participant increase with the earnings of workers and decrease with higher unemployment, and that level of assets also is moderated by the influence of taxes, with higher plan assets observed when and where tax rates are higher. Plans in Ontario had on average $20,035 less in asset value per participant, and Ontario plans covered by the guarantee fund had an average of $16,497 less per participant than other Canadian DB plans not backed by a guarantee fund. A separate model finds the presence of a guarantee fund to be one of a very small number of variables significant in explaining variability in the plans’ funded ratios. These empirical results are consistent with the existence of moral hazard.     

Konjunkturschlaglicht: Deutschland in tiefer Krise

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