Perceived Leadership Integrity in the Manufacturing Industry

Ethics is a significant issue among those in leadership positions, especially since the ethical corporate scandals of the 1970s followed by corporate scandals in the 1980s and the S&L scandals of the 1980s and 1990s and most recently the global financial crisis of 2006–2009. The purpose of this research was to measure the perceived leadership integrity in today’s manufacturing environment, since the global financial crisis, as perceived by their employees. This study included 7,233 manufacturing employees in the United States. A total of 66 surveys were used to calculate data for this study. The Perceived Leader Integrity Scale (PLIS) was used to collect data from respondents that included demographic questions. The research addressed the following question: To what degree are leaders in the manufacturing industry considered “low ethical,” “moderate ethical,” and “high ethical” on the PLIS?     

Forecasting With Temporally Aggregated Demand Signals in a Retail Supply Chain

Suppliers of consumer packaged goods are facing an increasingly challenging situation as they work to fulfill orders from their retail partners’ distribution facilities. Traditionally these suppliers have generated forecasts of a given retailer's orders using records of that retailer's past orders. However, it is becoming increasingly common for retail firms to collect and share large volumes of point‐of‐sale (POS) data, thus presenting an alternative data signal for suppliers to use in generating forecasts. A question then arises as to which data produce the most accurate forecasts. Compounding this question is the fact that forecasters often temporally aggregate data for consolidation or to produce forecasts in larger time buckets. Extant literature prescribes two countervailing statistical effects, information loss and variance reduction, that could play significant roles in determining the impact of temporal aggregation on forecast accuracy. Utilizing a large set of paired order and POS data, this study examines these relationships.     

Financial models with defaultable numéraires

Financial models are studied where each asset may potentially lose value relative to any other. Conditioning on nondevaluation, each asset can serve as proper numéraire and classical valuation rules can be formulated. It is shown when and how these local valuation rules can be aggregated to obtain global arbitrage‐free valuation formulas.     

A guide to the seen costs and unseen benefits of e-commerce

As consumer shopping preferences shift from traditional retail channels toward e-commerce, the negative effects of e-commerce are easy to see and are often noted in the popular press. Yet, the benefits of this shift are often unseen. In this article, we first consider empirical evidence that suggests technological innovation is generally a net positive for society. We look at the unseen benefits along with each of the seen costs of e-commerce growth to fully understand the impacts on society. To do this, we consider packaging and waste, traffic and emissions, and energy and resource consumption—all considered costs of e-commerce. Based on this evidence, we propose that policymakers should exercise caution before developing policies that may alter this shift and limit innovation.     

Reputation and investor activism: A structural approach

We measure the impact of reputation for proxy fighting on investor activism by estimating a dynamic model in which activists engage a sequence of target firms. Our estimation produces an evolving reputation measure for each activist and quantifies its impact on campaign frequency and outcomes. We find that high reputation activists initiate 3.5 times as many campaigns and extract 85% more settlements from targets, and that reputation-building incentives explain 20% of campaign initiations and 19% of proxy fights. Our estimates indicate these reputation effects combine to nearly double the value that activism adds for target shareholders.     

Multimarket Equilibrium,Trade, and the Law of One Price

This paper describes the setup of two classroom markets, one with a thin supply side and relatively higher prices. A comparison of the equilibrium price tendencies in the two markets helps students discover how to apply supply and demand analysis in this context. The introduction of speculators, who buy in one market and sell in the other, reduces or eliminates the price disparity. Class discussion can be focused on how “nonproductive” speculation can increase surplus measures of efficiency when price is permitted to convey the correct information about opportunity cost. Use: This experiment can be used in classes in the principles of economics, intermediate economics, or international trade to illustrate supply and demand analysis and the effects of inter-market trade. In upper-level classes, optimal bidding can be addressed as well. Time: Reading instructions and completing five trading rounds takes 30 to 40 minutes. Discussion lasts an additional 15 minutes. Materials: One deck of cards for up to 36 students, one copy of the instructions, and eight small blank slips of paper for each student.     

The option to stock volume ratio and future returns

We examine the information content of option and equity volumes when trade direction is unobserved. In a multimarket asymmetric information model, equity short-sale costs result in a negative relation between relative option volume and future firm value. In our empirical tests, firms in the lowest decile of the option to stock volume ratio (O/S) outperform the highest decile by 0.34% per week (19.3% annualized). Our model and empirics both indicate that O/S is a stronger signal when short-sale costs are high or option leverage is low. O/S also predicts future firm-specific earnings news, consistent with O/S reflecting private information.     

Shell games: On the value of shell companies

A reverse merger allows a private company to assume the current reporting status of another company that is public. This can be done quickly, without fundraising, road show, underwriter, substantial ownership dilution, or great expense. Private firms that go public via reverse merger are often motivated by the need to quickly secure financing through privately placed stock (PIPEs) and the desire to make acquisitions using stock as payment. In each of the last eight years reverse mergers have outnumbered traditional IPOs as a mechanism for going public, and reporting shell companies are providing fuel for much of this growth. We study 585 trading shell companies over the period 2006-2008. The purpose of most of these shell firms is to find a suitor for a reverse merger agreement. These companies have no systematic risk, operations, or assets, and their share price tends to decline over time. Yet, these firms have investors. When a takeover agreement is consummated, shell company three-month abnormal returns are 48.1%. We argue that this exceptional return is compensation to investors for shell stock illiquidity and the uncertainty of finding a reverse merger suitor. We show that shell company returns are much greater at the consummation of a merger than those of a similar entity that in dollar terms is more popular among investors — Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs).     

Risk Averters that Love Risk? Marginal Risk Aversion in Comparison to a Reference Gamble

We propose an analytical distinction between standard risk aversion based on the valuation of a single gamble and marginal risk aversion based on the change in valuation between two gambles. We measure marginal risk aversion in two dimensions—mean and variance. Data from a field experiment is used to study marginal risk aversion. Our results suggest that individuals rely on a reference gamble when assessing marginal risk. Individual responses to marginal changes in mean and variance are nearly identical in direction and magnitude—suggesting that information on both standard and marginal risk aversion is needed to accurately model behavior.