Bounding the benefits of stochastic auditing: The case of risk-neutral agents

Summary. In the context of a costly-state-verification model with a risk-neutral agent having limited liability, it has been postulated that allowing stochastic auditing reduces the asymmetric information problem to a trivial one: i.e., the first best can be approached arbitrarily closely with feasible contracts. This paper proves the postulate to be false: the surplus from feasible contracts is bounded strictly below the first-best surplus level. The bound is straightforward to compute in examples. The paper thus removes a justification for the restriction to deterministic auditing commonly made in the literature. Received: July 18, 1997; revised version: February 23, 1998     

Incorporating a tracking signal into a state space model

It is a common practice to complement a forecasting method such as simple exponential smoothing with a monitoring scheme to detect those situations where forecasts have failed to adapt to structural change. It will be suggested in this paper that the equations for simple exponential smoothing can be augmented by a common monitoring statistic to provide a method that automatically adapts to structural change without human intervention. The resulting method, which turns out to be a restricted form of damped trend corrected exponential smoothing, is compared with related methods on the annual data from the M3 competition. It is shown to be better than simple exponential smoothing and more consistent than traditional damped trend exponential smoothing.     

Impact at the ‘Bottom of the Pyramid’: The Role of Social Capital in Capability Development and Community Empowerment

Rooted in the notion of inclusive capitalism, the Bottom‐of‐the‐Pyramid (BoP) approach argues for the simultaneous pursuit of profit and social welfare by creating markets for the poor. This idea has been both celebrated and criticized in the literature. We do neither in this paper. Instead, by leveraging insights from Amartya Sen's work on capability development and the literature on social capital, we offer a more socially embedded and community‐centric BoP approach. By redefining poverty not just as a lack of income, but also as a lack of ‘capabilities’ in Sen's sense that can be developed through leveraging social capital, we offer a systemic framework for understanding the societal impact of business‐driven ventures in the BoP and empowering BoP communities through these ventures. Specifically, we argue that any business initiative in the BoP ought to be evaluated on the basis of whether it advances capability transfer and retention by (a) enhancing the social capital between a particular community and other more resource rich networks, and (b) preserving the existing social capital in the community.     

ON BUYING LEGISLATURES*

This paper analyzes a simple spatial voting model that includes lobbyists who are able to buy votes on bills to change the status quo. The key results are: (i) if lobbyists can discriminate across legislators when buying votes, then they will pay the largest bribes to legislators who are slightly opposed to the proposed change, rather than to legislators who strongly support or strongly oppose the change; (ii) equilibrium policies exist, and with quadratic preferences these equilibria always lie between the average of the lobbyists' ideal points and the median of the legislators' ideal points; and (iii) “moderate” lobbyists, whose positions on a policy issue are close to the median of the legislators' ideal points, will prefer the issue to be salient, while more extreme lobbyists will generally prefer the issue to be obscure.     

Influence of catalog vs. store shopping and prior satisfaction on perceived risk

This paper presents the results of a study which examines the overall amount and types of risk consumers perceive when purchasing the same products by direct mail as compared to retail stores. The effect of prior catalog shopping experience on perceived risk is also examined. The results indicate that despite the gains achieved by the direct mail industry, consumers continue to perceive this shopping mode as being significantly more risky. Differences were also found with respect to the individual types of risk perceived. A significant relationship between perceived risk and the satisfaction/dissatisfaction derived from prior catalog purchase experience was also identified.     

A data base with income and assets of new retirees by race and hispanic origin

This study of persons who retired in 1980-81 across groups partitioned by marital status, sex, race, and Hispanic origin reveals sub-stantial differences in income and asset holdings. Data from the New Beneficiary Survey show that (1) median income ranged from $ 11,000 for black couples to $18,000 for white couples, (2) social security payments were the major source of income, (3) pension income was more frequently received by white retirees, but when received, was of comparable value to all races, (4) home ownership was high among all retirees, especially couples, and (5) median assets of black retirees were very low—near zero.     

Constructing a global architecture with an American blueprint: The ambivalent U.S. attitude toward Asian regional cooperation

In step with the global trend toward regionalism, there has been significant progress in the development of a regional institutional framework in Asia, although perhaps to a lesser degree than other parts of the world. This is evidenced by the establishment over the past decade of APEC, ASEAN Regional Forum, and other multilateral attempts to address specific security issues. The attitude of the United States toward the development of such institutions for regional cooperation has been quite ambivalent and its approach might be described as ad hoc, utilitarian or instrumental. This paper examines the rhetoric, politics, and policy of America's seemingly ambiguous and inconsistent approach to Asian regional cooperation in an attempt to illustrate the factors that shape U.S. policy toward such efforts.     

Public and private intervention for next-generation access deployment: Possibilities for three European countries

How next-generation access (NGA) deployment can be encouraged is a challenge that many countries are facing, and one that has been widely and actively discussed around the globe. This discussion has highlighted a dilemma that ultimately shapes investment—how to encourage the widespread deployment of NGA while enabling operators to achieve reasonable returns. This paper focuses on the tensions that arise as a consequence of this investment challenge in three countries – the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom (UK) – and uses the analysis of extensive data collection with k7ey actors to argue the case for the injection of public or private incentives. The paper finds that markets with competitive infrastructure will not benefit from public investment while markets with geographical constraints are in need of public support. The paper also explains that regulatory intervention is necessary in the early stage of NGA roll-out, even in currently competitive markets. In all the discussions it becomes evident that, among the three cases, the UK is most in need of public intervention.     

Bargaining Through Agents: An Experimental Study of Delegation and Commitment

While face-to-face bargaining has proven itself to be extremely efficient in the laboratory, it appears to break down often in the real world. This discrepancy, we assert, is explained by the fact that in the real world face-to-face bargaining is usually conducted not between principals but between the agents of principals. We find a substantial increase in inefficiency when bargaining is conducted through agents rather than through principals and offer an explanation for this rise in inefficiency. As such, this paper helps to shed light on the growing literature on delegation, commitment, and preference distortion games. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C78, C92.