Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: a large BVAR for New Zealand

We analyse a large Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) containing almost 100 New Zealand macroeconomic time series. Methods for allowing multiple blocks of equations with block-specific Bayesian priors are described, and forecasting results show that our model compares favourably to a range of other time series models. Examining the impulse responses to a monetary policy shock and to two less conventional shocks—net migration and the climate—we highlight the usefulness of the large BVAR in analysing shock transmission.     

Welfare Implications of EU Enlargement under the CAP

The qualitative impacts of European Union (EU) enlargement on intervention prices, variable import levies, and export restitution payments for cereal under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) are analyzed using a partial equilibrium framework for EU cereal crops. The welfare implications are developed for both a net exporter and net importer. Consumer surplus, producer surplus, government revenue, and total welfare are compared and contrasted for the EU and the new entrant, both before and after enlargement. Dans le présent article, les répercussions qualitatives de l'élargissement de l'UE sur les prix d'intervention, les prélèvements variables à l'importation et les paiements de restitution à l'exportation des céréales dans le cadre de la Politique agricole commune (PAC) sont analysés à l'aide d'un modèle d'équilibre partiel pour les cultures céréalières de l'UE. Les répercussions sur le bien–être sont élaborées dans le cas d'un exportateur net et d'un importateur net. Le surplus des consommateurs, le surplus des producteurs, les recettes publiques et le bien–être total sont comparés pour l'UE et le nouveau venu, et ce, avant et après l'élargissement de l'UE.     

Domestic market integration and the law of one price in Brazil

This article presents the first assessment of domestic market integration in Brazil using the law of one price. The law of one price is tested using two panel unit root methodologies and a unique data set comprising price indices for 51 products across 11 metro-areas. We find that the law holds for most tradable products and, not surprisingly, nontradable products are found to be less likely to satisfy the law of one price. While these findings are consistent with evidence found for other countries, price convergence occurs very slowly in Brazil, suggesting relatively limited domestic market integration.     

Financial conditions indexes for the United States and euro area

Financial conditions indexes are developed for the United States and euro area using a wide range of financial indicators and a dynamic factor model. The financial conditions indexes are shown to be useful for forecasting economic activity and have good revision properties. Variants of the indexes that allow for cross-economy effects reveal very strong financial linkages across the United States and euro area.     

Contents of Volume 28

Volume Contents

Contents of Volume 28     

Network position and health care worker infections

We use a newly collected data set coupled with an agent-based model to study the spread of infectious disease in hospitals. We estimate the average and marginal infections created by various worker groups in a hospital as a function of their network position in order to identify groups most crucial in a hospital-based epidemic. Surprisingly, we find that many groups with primary patient care responsibilities play a small role in spreading an infectious disease within our hospital data set. We also demonstrate that the effect of different network positions can be as important as the effect of different transmission rates for some categories of workers.     

Towards a global multi-regional environmentally extended input-output database

This paper presents the strategy for a large EU-funded Integrated Project: EXIOPOL (“A New Environmental Accounting Framework Using Externality Data and Input-Output Tools for Policy Analysis”), with special attention for its part in environmentally extended (EE) input-output (IO) analysis. The project has three principal objectives:

(a)

to synthesize and further develop estimates of the external costs of key environmental impacts for Europe;

(b)

to develop an EE IO framework for the EU-27 in a global context, including as many of these estimates as possible, to allow for the estimation of environmental impacts (expressed as LCA themes, material requirement indicators, ecological footprints or external costs) of the activities of different economic sectors, final consumption activities and resource consumption;

(c)

to apply the results of the work to external costs and EE I-O for illustrative policy questions.

     

A characterization of equilibria in the Groves–Ledyard mechanism

In this paper, we characterize all interior and boundary equilibria of the Groves–Ledyard mechanism for a large class of economies and determine their stability properties. We show that the mechanism admits three types of equilibria: a symmetric, efficient, stable interior equilibrium, a large set of asymmetric, efficient, unstable, interior equilibria, and a large set of asymmetric, inefficient, stable boundary equilibria. We further show that asymmetric equilibria fail to exist for large values of the punishment parameter or if the message space is bounded sufficiently. The boundary equilibria previously had not been located nor had the instability of the asymmetric equilibria been known. Interestingly, the stability of the symmetric equilibrium rests on two dynamics that individually produce instability.     

RBCs AND DSGEs: THE COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY AND EVIDENCE

Abstract.  Real business cycle (RBC) and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) methods have become essential components of the macroeconomist's toolkit. This literature review stresses recently developed techniques for computation and inference, providing a supplement to the Romer textbook, which stresses theoretical issues. Many computational aspects are illustrated with reference to the simple divisible labor RBC model. Code and US data to replicate the computations are provided on the internet, together with a number of appendices providing background details.