The shape of the Phillips curve: the case of Indonesia

It is recognized that the effectiveness of monetary policy in the control of inflation depends critically on the relationship between inflation and the output gap. During booms, inflation is highly sensitive to monetary influences, but during recessions this influence is considerably muted. However, econometric investigation of this phenomenon has mostly focussed on the developed economies. In this article, the shape of the Phillips curve is investigated for Indonesia. Evidence is found of significant nonlinearities in the inflation–output relationship for Indonesia and it is argued that this relationship is best modelled by the capacity-constraint (L-shape) model.     

Does the monetary policy committee still care about inflation? Some evidence from a small macroeconomic model

This article derives an optimal Taylor rule for the UK economy using a simple estimated model based on data prior to the financial crisis of 2008. Optimal policy rules are calculated using simulation of the model over a long time period coupled with a search for optimal Taylor rule parameters using the Newton-Raphson loss minimization algorithm. The weights in the pre-crisis loss function are then inferred from the Taylor rule parameters estimated from the period corresponding to Bank of England independence, i.e. 1997–2008. These estimates are consistent with a low weight on inflation relative to output stabilization even before the crisis. The model is therefore consistent with the hypothesis that there has been no change in Bank of England preferences and that the Bank has responded to the crisis in a way which would have been predicted on the basis of its pre-crisis behaviour.     

The Phillips curve,parameter instability and the Lucas critique

Empirical estimation of Phillips curve relationships typically indicates the presence of parameter instability. This is argued to be due to the fact that the parameters of these equations are reduced form rather than structural parameters. Estimation of a Phillips curve model by methods which allow for time-varying parameters permits investigation of the nature and timing of the structural breaks which generate instability. This paper estimates such a model by the Kalman filter using quarterly data over the period 1972.4 to 1993.3. We find evidence of a gradual decline in the private sector's assessment of the steady-state inflation rate during the 1980s, but little evidence of the sort of dramatic regime shift predicted by some of the more extreme rational expectations models.     

Rebuilding the limit order book: sequential Bayesian inference on hidden states

The limit order book of an exchange represents an information store of market participants’ future aims and for many traders the information held in this store is of interest. However, information loss occurs between orders being entered into the exchange and limit order book data being sent out. We present an online algorithm which carries out Bayesian inference to replace information lost at the level of the exchange server and apply our proof of concept algorithm to real historical data from some of the world’s most liquid futures contracts as traded on CME GLOBEX, EUREX and NYSE Liffe exchanges.     

Agricultural Show Awards: A Brief Exploration of Their Role Marketing Food Products

ABSTRACT

Drawing on interviews with 12 agriculture show winners across a range of different food industries, this report provides a preliminary analysis of the role that agricultural show awards play in branding and marketing food products for commercial sale. In keeping with findings from previous studies, show awards were found to be regarded by producers as prestigious, signifying product excellence. Further, the assessment of the quality of products, the opportunity to receive expert feedback on new products, and a comparative, competitive effect of the show system was found to provide a mechanism to improve quality, helping to support industry standards and foster a culture of innovation. Show awards were identified as especially important in supporting small-scale entrepreneurial endeavors that depend on niche marketing strategies. However, winning awards was shown to contribute more to perceived brand equity of products rather than actual economic gain. To strengthen the impact of show success, participants indicated the need for increased consumer awareness of the meaning of the awards. The authors identify key future directions research could take to maximize the impact of agricultural award systems on the businesses of competitors.     

Brain metastases in non-small cell lung cancer patients on epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors: symptom and economic burden

Objective: This study describes the symptom and economic burden associated with brain metastases (BM) in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) receiving epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs).

Methods: This retrospective study included adults with ≥2 medical claims, within 90 days, for lung cancer and ≥1 administration of EGFR-TKIs. Based on ICD-9 codes, patients were stratified into cohorts by type of metastases (BM, other metastases [OM], or no metastases [NM]), and by when the metastasis diagnosis occurred (synchronous or asynchronous).

Results: The population (synchronous BM [SBM]?=?24, synchronous OM [SOM]?=?23, asynchronous BM [ASBM]?=?15, asynchronous OM [ASOM]?=?49, NM?=?85) was mostly female (57%), average age 69 years (SD?=?11). SBM patients experienced more fatigue and nausea/vomiting compared with SOM and NM patients and more headaches and loss of appetite than NM patients. ASBM was associated with more fatigue, nausea/vomiting, headaches, pain/numbness, altered mental status, and seizures than NM, and more headaches and pain/numbness than ASOM. SBM patients experienced a greater increase in per-member-per-month all-cause total healthcare costs after diagnosis ($20,301) vs SOM ($9,131, p?=?.001) and NM ($2,493, p?=?.001). ASBM’s cost increase between baseline and follow-up ($7,867) did not differ from ASOM’s ($4,947, p?=?.195); both were larger than NM ($2,493, p?=?.001 and p?=?.009, respectively).

Limitations: EGFR mutation status was inferred based on EGFR-TKI treatment, not by molecular testing. Patients were from US commercial insurance plans; results may not be generalizable to other populations.

Conclusions: Among patients with EGFR-TKI-treated NSCLC, patients with BM experienced more symptoms and, when diagnosed synchronously, had significant increases in total medical costs vs patients with OM and NM. Therapeutic options with central nervous system activity may offer advantages in symptomatology and costs in EGFR-mutated patients with BM.     

The Interrelationship of Governance,Trust, and Ethics in Temporary Organizations

This study investigates the variety of ethical decisions of project managers and their impact from corporate governance and project governance structures. The roles of personal trust and system trust as a mechanism to steer ethical decision making in different governance settings is explored. Nine qualitative case studies in Europe, Asia, and Australia show that ethical decision making is contingent on trust, which in turn is contingent on the fulfillment of personal expectations within a given governance structure. The findings show the prerequisites for ethical decision making and the consequences of lack of trust. Further managerial and theoretical implications are discussed.     

Transformational Leadership and Leaders’ Mode of Care Reasoning

Previous research on the moral foundations of transformational leadership has focused primarily on stage of justice reasoning; this study focuses on developmental mode of care reasoning. Multilevel regression analyses were conducted on data coded from interviews with a sample of Canadian public sector managers (N?=?58) and survey responses from their subordinates (N?=?119). Results indicated that managers?? developmental mode of care reasoning significantly and positively predicted subordinates?? reports of transformational (but not transactional) leadership, with significant differences in follower reports of transformational leadership between those using more versus less advanced modes of care reasoning. Conceptual implications for understanding transformational leadership and the ethics of leadership, directions for future research, and suggestions for leadership interventions are discussed.