From agriculture to manufacturing: How does geography matter?

This article advances a theory to show that geographical advantage for agricultural production helps an economy to become more prosperous in the predominantly agricultural regime, but delays the timing of transition to manufacturing production (i.e., the timing of industrialization). It also delays the change in labor structure toward an increase in proportion of skilled labor, and hence, the economy may be overtaken in the development process by another with less geographical advantage for agriculture. This theoretical result is in accordance with recent empirical evidence and helps explain the reversals of national fortune, which are documented in economic history. Within its analytical framework, the article also enriches the existing literature by explaining the decline in fertility and the evolution of labor structure, along with technological progress, in the development process.     

The value impact of name changes evidence from Chinese firms during the technology boom

For a sample of US stocks in the period 1998–1999, Cooper, Dimitrov, and Rau (2001) report dramatic value increases in the 10 days around the announcement of dotcom name changes. We find much smaller value changes for a sample of Chinese listed firms with changes to internet-related dotcom names for the 1998 to 2002 period. This result is surprising given the high proportion of retail trading in China and the prohibition to short sell Chinese stocks. Also in contrast to Cooper, Dimitrov, and Rau (2001), we find that most of the value increase for our sample firms is realized gradually prior to the announcement. Further investigation reveals that our sample firms experience more frequent CEO-turnover, significant increase in return-on-assets, and involve more restructure activities around the name change event. These results suggest that the value increases for firms with name changes are the consequence of substantial and successful operational changes, and that the name change is simply part of that process, instead of the cosmetic effects of name change or investor mania suggested by previous studies.     

Der Einfluss einer staatlichen Grundsicherung auf die Versicherungsnachfrage bei asymmetrischer Informationsverteilung

In this article, we develop a model framework in which the influence of a state assistance on insurance demand in an insurance market with imperfect information can be examined. It turned out that a state subsidy of very low level has no influence on the insurance demand at all. If the state assistance is adequately high, the individuals will prefer government assistance to market insurance. In case of adverse selection, a state assistance can have the consequence that the good risks decide not to buy any insurance while the bad risks purchase full insurance cover. The state assistance can therefore contribute to solve the problem of adverse selection. In case of moral hazard, a surprising result has been found out. The state assistance can bring the measures of loss minimizing to a standstill before the insurance can do it. The state subsidy amplifies the moral hazard behaviour and is therefore not a suitable instrument to solve problems with moral hazard.     

Nonparametric Estimation of a Multifactor Heath-Jarrow-Morton Model: An Integrated Approach

We propose a new nonparametric estimator for the volatilitystructure of the zero-coupon yield curve inside the Heath-Jarrow-Mortonframework. The estimator incorporates cross-sectional restrictionsalong the maturity dimension, and also allows for measurementerrors, which can arise from estimation of the yield curve fromnoisy data. The estimates are implemented with daily CRSP bonddata.     

Did China avoid the ‘Asian flu’? The contagion effect test with dynamic correlation coefficients

Many economists believe that China avoided the so-called Asian flu due to its strong balance of payments position and substantial foreign reserves. This study introduces an improved method for testing financial-crisis contagion and shows that crisis-contagion effects were significant among Thailand and the Chinese economic area (i.e. China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan) stock markets during the Asian financial crisis. The main contribution of this study is its use of a two-step procedure to identify the crisis dates for testing for contagion and data pertaining to a growing triangular economic area during the Asian financial crisis. This result suggests that if investors ignore the economic and financial information within regional markets, they will face an increase in uncertainty vis-à-vis investment returns.     

Effective derivative hedging and initial public offering long‐run performance

We investigate the role of corporate currency risk management through the use of financial derivatives in influencing the long‐run performance of a sample of Australian resources companies. We find that derivative users generally outperformed nonderivative users in the 5‐year period following listing. Effective derivative users consistently outperformed the nonhedgers. Furthermore, within the population of derivative users, effective derivative users tended to perform better than ineffective hedgers. Our results indicate that effective financial risk management plays a role in long‐run IPO performance.     

Assessing the price and output effects of monetary policy in Vietnam: evidence from a VAR analysis

Using monthly data, we perform a vector-autoregressive analysis to measure the effects of monetary policy on the Vietnamese economy. We concentrate our attention on the period following the introduction of the Law on Central Bank in January 1998 (which brought the national monetary policy and its objectives in line with international practices). Contrary to previous studies on Vietnam, we find evidence suggesting that monetary policy (through the manipulation of interest rates) is an effective policy tool in stabilizing prices. However, credit growth tends to induce inflationary pressures. In addition, we find that an expansion of broad money supply leads to an increase in industrial production.     

Investment climate and firm productivity: an application to Vietnamese manufacturing firms

The fundamental aspect of a national competitive advantage is a good investment climate. Understanding the role of the investment climate in generating firm productivity has received extensive attention by policymakers and economists in many countries. The article studies the effect of different dimensions of the investment climate on firm productivity. Using a large dataset of Vietnamese manufacturing firms, the article finds that deficiencies in the investment climate are prejudicial to firm productivity and competition. Furthermore, in examining the effect of corruption in association with the quality of the business environment, the study also investigates the possibility that corruption may compensate firms for a bad investment climate or at least may neutralize the negative impact of inefficient government regulations. In other words, corruption acts as ‘speed money’ to improve the efficacy of the provision of public services or provides leeway for entrepreneurs to bypass the inefficient regulations. This situation, however, is extremely harmful to the economy in the long run because it distorts the market and erodes the incentives for productive investments. Developing countries therefore need to put much more effort into institutional reforms, especially fighting corruption and efficiency in the provision of public goods and services.     

Impact of US market access on local labour markets in Vietnam

This paper examines the impact of US market access on local labour markets in a developing country, Vietnam. Following the implementation of the Vietnam–United States bilateral trade agreement (BTA) in December 2001, manufacturing employment increased in provinces that were more exposed to US tariff cuts. In those provinces, employment also increased in many service sectors, reflecting strong spillovers of job gains. Among three potential channels of local job gain spillovers, namely, demand, production and real estate, the demand channel is the most important. The BTA is also found to reduce employment gaps, especially in manufacturing, between females and males, rural and urban, and poor and rich households.     

基于环境保护的绿色技术创新分析

环境保护是人们日益关注的难题 ,绿色技术创新是实现环境保护的重要举措之一 ,而绿色技术创新本身需要借助各方面的力量。因此 ,绿色技术创新对环境保护具有重要意义。