从公司内部治理看上市公司信息披露的诚信问题

上市公司信息披露质量的高低直接影响到证券市场的健康发展。而公司内部治理结构与信息披露的内容和质量存在密切联系。本文主要从公司内部治理结构出发,分析我国上市公司信息披露缺乏诚信的原因,并提出提高信息披露质量的建议。     

Signalling power of special dividends in an imputation environment

The present study examines the impact of the announcement of special dividends for a sample of Australian companies over the period July 1989 to June 2002. The risk‐adjusted price reaction to special dividend announcements from the day before the announcement to the day after the announcement (day ?1 to day 1) is positive and statistically significant, averaging 3.67 per cent. Initial special dividend announcements (4.68 per cent) led to stronger price reaction than special dividend announcements that follow an earlier special dividend (1.51 per cent) in the previous year. The magnitude of price reactions to special dividend announcements is statistically related to the size of the special dividend, the existence of prior special dividend announcements, abnormal cash flow for the year ended after the special dividend announcement, the existence of dividend reinvestment plans (DRP) versus non‐DRP, and a preannouncement effect. Finally, we found strong support for the information content/signalling hypothesis for special dividend announcements that do not participate in DRP and limited support for those associated with DRP.     

How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a new Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference

We evaluate the Smets-Wouters New Keynesian model of the US postwar period, using indirect inference, the bootstrap and a VAR representation of the data. We find that the model is strongly rejected. While an alternative (New Classical) version of the model fares no better, adding limited nominal rigidity to it produces a ‘weighted’ model version closest to the data. But on data from 1984 onwards - the ‘great moderation’ - the best model version is one with a high degree of nominal rigidity, close to New Keynesian. Our results are robust to a variety of methodological and numerical issues.     

Probabilistic forecasting of output growth,inflation and the balance of trade in a GVAR framework

We apply a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to the analysis of inflation, output growth and global imbalances among a group of 33 countries (26 regions). We account for structural instability by use of country‐specific intercept shifts, the timings of which are identified taking into account both statistical evidence and our knowledge of historic economic conditions and events. Using this model, we compute both central forecasts and scenario‐based probabilistic forecasts for a range of events of interest, including the sign and trajectory of the balance of trade, the achievement of a short‐term inflation target, and the incidence of recession and slow growth. The forecasting performance of the GVAR model in relation to the ongoing financial crisis is quite remarkable. It correctly identifies a pronounced and widespread economic contraction accompanied by a marked shift in the net trade balance of the Eurozone and Japan. Moreover, this promising out‐of‐sample forecasting performance is substantiated by a raft of statistical tests which indicate that the predictive accuracy of the GVAR model is broadly comparable to that of standard benchmark models over short horizons and superior over longer horizons. Hence we conclude that GVAR models may be a useful forecasting tool for institutions operating at both the national and supra‐national levels. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exchange rate exposure and the use of foreign currency derivatives in the Australian resources sector

In this paper, we provide a re-examination of the exchange rate exposure and foreign currency derivative use by Australian resources firms in the 2006–2009 period which is characterized by increased volatility caused by the global financial crisis. In particular, we consider the interaction of a resources firm's exchange rate risk exposures, foreign currency derivative use and the global financial crisis simultaneously. Conforming to expectations, our results indicate that more companies are significantly exposed to exchange rate risk since the onset of the financial crisis. However, there is a lack of evidence that the use of foreign currency derivative is more effective in alleviating exchange rate exposures during the crisis as opposed to the pre-crisis period.     

The Recent Development of Financial Markets in Vietnam

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

An analysis of the opening mechanisms of Exchange Traded Fund markets

We examine the opening of Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) markets in a multimarket trading environment. We find that the opening trades on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) are the most costly. This result is consistent with the market power hypothesis which suggests that the specialists use their informational advantage about the order imbalance at the open or take advantage of the inelastic demand at the open by imposing wider spreads. We also find that the transparent opening mechanisms of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Electronic Communication Networks (ECNs) enable them to facilitate greater price discovery at the opening and to have more efficient opening prices. This result implies that the transparency effect dominates the market power effect. Further, we find that peripheral markets do not passively free ride on information revealed through the AMEX because their opening trades contribute significantly to the price discovery process.     

DO BANK RELATIONSHIPS MATTER IN PUBLIC DEBT OFFERINGS?

Finance theorists have argued that banks have a comparative advantage over public debtholders and other suppliers of debt both in gathering information about and in monitoring corporate borrowers. Although underwriters of public debt issues and private placements have access to inside information when executing specific transactions, commercial bankers have ongoing relationships with their corporate borrowers that have often been built up over years. Perhaps more important, banks are also often in a better position and have stronger incentives than a dispersed collection of bondholders to keep tabs on what the borrowers do after receiving the capital.
This theoretical argument received striking empirical support from a study by Chris James published in 1987 in the Journal of Financial Economics. Entitled "Some Evidence on the Uniqueness of Bank Loans," the study documented that announcements of new bank lending aggreements by public firms are received positively, on average (and in a large majority of cases) by the stock market. This finding offered a pointed contrast to the neutral to sharply negative stock-price responses that accompany announcements of almost all other kinds of securities offerings, including private placements of debt and public offerings of straight debt.
In this article, the authors discuss their own recently published study that provides another piece of evidence of the value added by banking relationships. Specifically, the authors report that the first public debt offerings of companies with bank relationships carry spreads that are 85 basis points less than the spreads of initial debt issues by comparable firms without bank relationships. As the authors interpret their findings, a banking relationship not only helps to "certify" the value of corporate borrowers to their stockholders, but also provides other lenders with valuable "cross-monitoring" benefits that are reflected in lower borrowing costs.