The effect of foreign partner network embeddedness on international joint venture failure: Evidence from European firms’ investments in emerging economies

Access to trusted information about potential local partners is a critical factor for international joint venture (IJV) stability and success in emerging economies. We build on social network theory and examine how foreign investors can benefit from their alliance networks in accessing reliable information on the availability, resources, and behavior of potential local IJV partners. More specifically, we examine positional embeddedness in networks and network density and how these factors help foreign firms mitigate behavioral uncertainty in IJVs and thus reduce the likelihood of failure. We use data on 349 IJVs formed by 132 European firms in emerging economies during the 1995–1997 period and event history analysis to test our hypotheses. Our findings indicate that having an alliance network is a necessary but insufficient condition to mitigate behavioral uncertainty of local partners. We find that only densely tied networks offer benefits of reliable information on potential local partners that ensure the longevity of IJVs and that a central position in an alliance network translates into lower IJV failure.     

On derivatives with illiquid underlying and market manipulation

In illiquid markets, option traders may have an incentive to increase their portfolio value by using their impact on the dynamics of the underlying. We provide a mathematical framework to construct optimal trading strategies under market impact in a multi-player framework by introducing strategic interactions into the model of Almgren [Appl. Math. Finance, 2003, 10(1), 1–18]. Specifically, we consider a financial market model with several strategically interacting players who hold European contingent claims and whose trading decisions have an impact on the price evolution of the underlying. We establish the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium results for risk-neutral and CARA investors and show that the equilibrium dynamics can be characterized in terms of a coupled system of possibly nonlinear PDEs. For the linear cost function used by Almgren, we obtain a (semi) closed-form solution. Analysing this solution, we show how market manipulation can be reduced.     

Techno-ökonomische Bewertung von Energie-Autarkie für die Energieversorgung von Einfamilienhäusern

Many consumers currently follow the idea of energy self-sufficiency and try to contribute to meet their energy needs in order to become independent and self-sufficient from the central power supply system. In order to achieve load-oriented energy self-sufficiency the provision of energy must cover the full energy demand at any time. Against this background, in this paper the costs and potentials of a load-oriented energy self-sufficiency of single-family homes are analysed. Thereby it is differentiated between electricity-, heat- and energy self-sufficiency. The modelling is carried out with the simulation environment ?Polysun Designer“ which allows a high temporal dynamic simulation of the annual energy demand and supply.The results show that, within the investigated supply variations, the highest levels of energy self-sufficiency can be achieved by an energy supply system completely based on electricity using a combination of PV; heat pump and battery storage. Depending on the building standard, a maximum of 45 (existing buildings) and 71?% (new buildings) of the building’s energy demand can be covered with renewable energy. The economic evaluation however has shown that under present conditions, none of the investigated supply variants can compete with conventional energy supply (public grid connection + gas condensing boiler).     

Corporate taxes,capital structure,and valuation: Combining Modigliani/Miller and Miles/Ezzell

The valuation of a firm with discounted cash flow (DCF) approaches requires assumptions about the firm’s financing strategy. The approaches of Modigliani and Miller and Miles and Ezzell assume that either a passive debt management with predetermined debt levels or active debt management with capital structure targets is applied. Over the last decades, various extensions of these approaches have been developed to allow for a more realistic depiction of financial decision making. However, recent empirical analyses indicate that current theories still have limited power to explain large variances in capital structure across time. We provide an alternative explanation for the empirical observation by assuming that firms combine both capital structure targets and predetermined debt within future periods, and we show how to value a firm given such a partially active debt management. The approaches of Modigliani and Miller and Miles and Ezzell are embedded into a common valuation framework, with the familiar valuation formulas shown as special cases. In a simulation analysis, we illustrate that the textbook valuation formulas may produce considerable valuation errors if a firm applies a partially active debt management.     

Price competition in markets with customer testing: the captive customer effect

We introduce product differentiation into the analysis of price competition in markets where suppliers test customers in order to assess whether they will pay for received goods or services. We find that, if the degree of differentiation is sufficiently high, suppliers may improve the average probability that their clientele will pay by charging higher prices. This helps suppliers to sustain high prices in equilibrium. Moreover, endogenizing locations in product space, we demonstrate that the high price level can be implemented in a pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium with a high degree of differentiation. This is in contrast to the original Hotelling model with linear travel costs where a pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium fails to exist.     

Does the dispersion of unit labor cost dynamics in the EMU imply long-run divergence?

Using unit labor cost (ULC) data from Euro area countries as well as US States and German Länder we investigate inflation convergence using different approaches, namely panel unit root tests, cointegration tests and error-correction models. All in all we cannot reject convergence of ULC growth in EMU. However, country-specific deviations from the rest of the currency union are much more pronounced and much more persistent in Europe than in the US or Germany. This holds before and after the introduction of the common currency. Hence, asymmetric shocks in the future might take a long time to dissipate.     

Growth and inflation forecasts for Germany a panel-based assessment of accuracy and efficiency

We analyse forecasts of professional forecasters for Germany regarding the time span from 1970 to 2004. This novel panel data set renders it possible to assess the accuracy and efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts more efficiently than in previous studies. We argue that the forecasts are, on average, unbiased and weakly—but not strongly—efficient. Using model confidence sets suggested by Hansen et al. (2004), we find that, besides the effect of diverging forecasting dates, no other substantial differences in forecasting quality among forecasters exist. Nevertheless, on the basis of a direction-of-change analysis we argue that it is not always advisable to listen to the majority of forecasters.

RETRACTED: Integrated knowledge exploitation: The complementarity of product development and technology licensing

In light of increasing licensing, we challenge the common assumption that product development and technology licensing are substitutes. We develop a resource‐based framework, which distinguishes a firm's technological resource base and technology exploitation processes. We further combine survey, patent, and financial data of 228 medium‐sized and large industrial companies to examine the interactions of firms' product development processes and technology licensing processes in order to explain heterogeneity in new product revenues, licensing performance, and firm performance. The results underscore that product development, which indicates innovative capacity, and technology licensing, which indicates desorptive capacity, are complements rather than substitutes in integrated knowledge exploitation in medium‐sized and large firms. This complementarity is particularly pronounced in firms with an emphasis on cross‐licensing and with a strong patent portfolio. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.