Canadian consumption and portfolio shares

In this paper we gauge consumption and portfolio shares, rather than the traditional pricing implications. We study both aggregated (financial, tangible, and human) and disaggregated (deposits, stocks, insurance, and pensions) assets. The empirical shares are computed from recent aggregate Canadian data. The theoretical shares are constructed from a flexible specification of both investors' preferences and investment opportunities. Our results reveal that the theoretical shares statistically match observed consumption and aggregated assets, but not disaggregated assets. Also, our findings for corporate stocks are consistent with the empirical asset returns literature. Finally, our findings for other assets highlight several new striking features. JEL classification: G11
Consommation et parts de porte feuille au Canada. Cette recherche analyse la consommation et les parts de portefeuille, plutôt que les prix des actifs. Nous étudions les actifs agrégés (i.e., financiers, tangibles et humains) ainsi que désagrégés (i.e., dépôts, actions et caisses de retraite et assurance). Les parts empiriques sont calculées pour des données agrégées canadiennes récentes. Les parts théoriques sont construites à partir d'un modèle flexible en ce qui a trait aux préférences et aux possibilités d'investissement. Nos résultats démontrent que les parts théoriques reproduisent la consommation et les parts agrégées, mais pas les parts désagrégées. Aussi, nos résultats sont cohérents avec ceux de la littérature empirique sur les rendements. Nos résultats concernant les autres actifs identifient d'autres aspects caractéristiques.     

Do misalignments predict aggregated stock-market volatility?

This paper considers forecasting regressions of “realized volatility” on a misalignment measure. Results show that this misalignment measure is useful to predict in and out-of-sample stock-market volatility at monthly horizons. The analysis also suggests a threshold effect.     

Analysis of a merger from a governance perspective: the case of Abitibi‐Consolidated and Donohue

Adopting a governance perspective, this study analyzes the merger between closely‐held Donohue Inc. and widely‐held Abitibi‐Consolidated Inc. Findings suggest that the absence of a controlling shareholder and weak board governance at Abitibi might explain both (a) its executives' interests in the transaction and (b) its CEO's compensation increase despite underperformance. Second, an intergeneration shift of control at Quebecor (Donohue's parent company) led to a strategic reorientation that (a) transformed Donohue into a target and (b) insured that Donohue's executives had incentives to pursue a deal. Finally, Donohue's noncontrolling shareholders benefited from the transaction while Abitibi shareholders experienced wealth reduction. The merger's aftermath provides some counter evidence regarding blockholders' power in widely‐held firms. Copyright © 2008 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The bargaining position of low-skilled and high-skilled workers in a globalising world

This paper extends the assessment of the impact of globalisation and technological change on the bargaining power and preferences of employees, by taking worker heterogeneity into account. In contrast with previous studies, two separate unions – representing low-skilled and high-skilled workers respectively – are considered. Using Belgian firm-level data, labour bargaining power and relative wage preference have been estimated by skill level. When these estimates are subsequently regressed on a set of potential determinants, the bargaining power of low-skilled workers appears to fall with imports and offshoring, whereas the bargaining power of high-skilled workers is only positively affected by R&D activities. In addition, a significant effect of globalisation is found on the relative preference of unions for wages over employment, indicating that the effect of globalisation on the behaviour of labour unions is more encompassing than frequently assumed.     

One Market,One Money: Evidence from Canada–United States Economic Integration

In this paper, we focus on the evolution of the optimum currency area (OCA) properties between Canada and the United States. To this end, we specifically investigate the relationship between the intra‐industry trade dynamics of Canadian provinces with the United States and the increasing level of integration between the two countries from 1980 to 1998. Our findings lead us to support the view that integration (real and monetary) improves the conditions under which a monetary union can yield net gains in the long run for the integrating countries. We also find that exchange rate developments exert asymmetric effects on the Canadian provinces.     

The Art of Scenarios and Strategic Planning: Tools and Pitfalls

The term strategy has been misused and even abused. Worse, the word scenario is often confused with strategy to the point that clarification is needed if we are to understand one another. As a prolongation of the work done by the Rand Corporation in the 1960s, strategic planning, management and prospective approaches have been developed to help organizations master change. Over the past 25 years, we have contributed by creating or further developing various methodologies and procedures such as the Mactor and MICMAC methods for use in scenario building. These tools are doubly powerful in that they stimulate the imagination, reduce collective biases, and promote appropriation. One of the main functions of the strategic futures exercise is to eliminate two errors that we usually describe as the “hammer's risk” and the “nail's dream.” In other words, we forget what a hammer's function is when staring at a nail (the nail's dream) or we know how to use a hammer and imagine that every problem is like a nail (the hammer's risk). In our case, we strive to give simple tools that may be appropriated. However, these simple tools are inspired by intellectual rigor that enables one to ask the right questions. Of course, these tools do not come with a guarantee. The natural talent, common sense, and intuition of the futurist also count!     

THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTING SYSTEM AND THE PREPARATION OF THE FIFTH FRENCH PLAN

This paper describes the process of development of the Fifth French Plan, and the role of the national income accounts in this process. Part I discusses methodological considerations relating to medium-term projections. Part II outlines the methods actually used in projecting growth outlines in the Fifth Plan, and discusses the considerations that proved critical. Part III discusses the applications of the projections to the planning apparatus.