The competition and equilibrium analysis of LCD TV and PDP TV

This study has investigated the dynamic competitive relationship between PDP TVs and LCD TVs by means of their quarterly shipments. The renowned Lotka-Volterra competition diffusion model has been adopted to conduct the empirical analysis with the Lyapunov function to carry out equilibrium and stability analysis, and estimate the domain of attraction which describes the trend and phenomenon of TV shipments. The results illustrate that there is good fitting performance while adopting this model. The competitive relationship can be viewed from the perspective that the LCD TV is the prey while the PDP TV is the predator. The possibility, nevertheless, for dropping the price of LCD TVs is an advantage of the attractiveness of the product which can be noted in higher growth rate than PDP TVs. With respect to the equilibrium stability analysis and estimated domain of attraction, 40- to 49-inch PDP TVs will not disappear from the market, but will generate a stable equilibrium with LCD TVs and sales volume presents simultaneous increase or decrease. In the supply and demand analysis, LCD TVs present a surplus of supply from 2008; therefore, how to conduct appropriate inventory management will be an emerging issue.     

当前中国周边安全环境与战略选择

纵向观察,建国以来中国周边安全环境总体向好,但时起时伏;横向比较,当前中国周边安全环境依然严峻。当前中国周边安全环境的现状是北稳南动,西缓东急。当前中国周边安全环境面对的最大挑战有朝鲜半岛安全问题、中日钓鱼岛主权与东海划界问题、南中国海问题、美国对台军售问题,以及复杂的中印关系等。当前中国周边安全战略应继续坚持与邻为善,以邻为伴的大方针;继续坚持睦邻、友邻、安邻和富邻的周边外交政策;具体执行中采取睦北、缓西、稳南和进东战略,为中国未来10年黄金发展期创造和平安宁的周边环境。     

多关系条件下多代理人行为分析与激励机制设计

针对多个代理人之间存在多种关系———竞争、合作和中立的情况,建立了信息对称和信息非对称条件下的多代理人行为选择模型,通过模型求解与模拟计算分析多关系条件下多代理人的行为选择和委托人的最优选择或激励机制。结果表明:信息对称条件下,员工薪酬与员工间的竞争程度无关,但合作关系更能激励员工努力工作;信息非对称条件下,员工间关系影响其薪酬和企业利润,合作关系下的企业总收益比其他关系下的企业收益高,员工间的合作关系会影响并提高处于其他关系下员工的努力程度。最后提出:企业面对多员工管理问题时应尽量构建合作的工作环境,以减小员工工作努力程度的不确定性、实现利益最大化。     

MEGA‐EVENTS AND TOURISM: THE CASE OF BRAZIL

Mega‐sporting events such as the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cup are expensive affairs. Host countries often justify the spending required to stage these events by predicting that mega‐events will draw large numbers of tourists. This paper analyzes monthly foreign tourist arrivals into Brazil between 2003 and 2015 and finds that the 2014 FIFA World Cup increased foreign tourism by roughly 1 million visitors. This number far exceeded expectations, but we show that roughly a quarter of this increase in foreign tourism was caused by the fortuitous advancement of Argentina's national team, and potential hosts should not count on the event to consistently produce out‐sized tourism figures. We conclude that on‐field results can greatly influence FIFA World Cup tourism. (JEL L83, F14)     

Evidence on the contrarian trading in foreign exchange markets

This paper investigates the existence and price impacts of contrarian behavior in the foreign exchange markets. By utilizing a nonlinear behavioral model where the chartists and fundamentalists coexist, evidence obtained from two sample periods significantly supports the existence of contrarian trading in the British pound, the Japanese yen and the German mark markets. The contrarian trading can only partially offset the price impacts of trend-followers, therefore the price impact of the chartists as a whole is destabilizing. The ability that the contrarians can counterbalance the extrapolation of the trend-followers differs across markets. Traders in the BP market have the highest tendency to contrarian strategy, which in turn contributes to the least deviations of the BP exchange rates departing from its PPP fundamentals. The fundamentalists' confidence in trade fades during large misalignments, which make the mean reversion function of the fundamentalists weak under the circumstances. We find the magnitudes of interventions will be affected by the price impacts of contrarians and their abilities on market stabilization.     

能源回弹效应下高碳产业低碳转型过程中的技术突变性

考虑能源回弹效应下,分析高碳产业低碳技术突变技术门槛,发现技术碳减排存在由量变到质变的门槛效应,另外还发现能源回弹对门槛效应具有显著影响。运用Hansen门限面板模型、结合CD生产函数的能源回弹模型发现：①不考虑能源回弹效应,高碳产业低碳化过程中的技术突变存在两个门槛;②考虑能源回弹作用,将减少为一个门槛,并且将延长高碳产业完成低碳技术突变所需时间。因此,为加快高碳产业低碳技术突变,有效减少碳排放,一方面应缓解能源回弹效应的影响,对能源回弹效应较大的高碳产业采取实时监控,对能源回弹较小的高碳产业采取定期检查和不定期抽检方式监控;货币政策、财政政策和产业政策相互配合,在高碳产业拉动经济增长的同时,最大限度控制能源回弹效应。另一方面,市场手段和政府职能双管齐下,协助企业低碳技术升级和设备改造,优化税收结构,弥补低碳技术升级导致的负外部性,完善高碳产业转移或市场退出机制。     

高技术产业国家价值链网络结构与省域增加值分解——来自电子信息产业的证据

为破解我国在高技术产业全球价值链中面临的低端锁定困境,需要构建并完善国家价值链分工体系。构建中国高技术产业国家价值链内生增值传导网络结构分析框架,并以电子信息产业为例,对省域国内增加值进行分解。结果表明,现阶段中国电子信息产业上游技术研发能力较弱,整体增值能力不强;下游间接关联产业部门数量及关联系数值仍待提高;除中游外,上下游出口国内增加值偏低,国际竞争力较弱;东、中部省域国内完全增加值占据优势,内生增值能力方面各有所长,东北、西部省域国内完全增加值及其内生增值能力均较弱。同时,中国省域国际垂直专业化程度未表现出显著地理地区特征,即使同一地域的省域之间也存在不同程度差异。     

西方经济学的微观需求理论体系及相关政策启示

在当前全球经济衰退的背景下,需求管理成为各国政府最为关注的核心政策内容,依据便是占据经济学主流地位的凯恩斯主义宏观需求理论,而该理论更深层次的基础是微观需求理论。本文按照理论发展的内在逻辑,梳理了微观需求理论体系,包括消费者的消费需求理论、市场结构理论、生产要素需求理论等局部均衡理论,还包括总体均衡、福利经济学以及市场失灵等理论。这些理论深入、细致地揭示了需求的本源涵义,给予我们重要的政策启示。     

越南战争与美国经济

作为美国历史上历时最持久的战争,越南战争对美国影响深远。至今为止,人们仍然对美国在这场战争中到底扮演了一个什么样的角色而争论不休。从参加这场战争的动机来看,有一点可以肯定的是,经济原因不是这场战争的主要原因。可是,由这场战争引发的经济问题还是令人深思的。在这场漫长的战争中．美国到底是受益者还是受害者？有统计数字表明,美国从过去的“一战”和”二战“中获得了巨大的经济利益。