EARLY WITHDRAWALS FROM RETIREMENT ACCOUNTS DURING THE GREAT RECESSION

Early withdrawals from retirement accounts are a double‐edged sword, because withdrawals reduce retirement resources, but they also allow individuals to smooth consumption when they experience demographic and economic shocks. Using tax data, we show that preretirement withdrawals increased between 2004 and 2010, especially after 2007, but early withdrawal rates are substantial (relative to new contributions) in all those years. Early withdrawal events are strongly correlated with shocks to income and marital status, and lower‐income taxpayers are more likely to experience the types of shocks associated with early withdrawals and more likely to have a taxable withdrawal when they experience a given shock. (JEL G23, H24, H31)     

Pillar 2: tax competition in low-income countries and substance-based income exclusion

Pillar 2 of the OECD's global tax reform proposal will have significant direct and indirect impacts for low-income developing countries (LICs). Most interesting and problematic is the question as to how the global anti-base erosion (GloBE) rules for a proposed global minimum effective tax will affect tax competition behaviour in LICs, and how LICs should respond when a critical mass of higher-income economies adopt the new structure. Most LICs are source-only countries, and they are very much in competition to attract foreign direct investment. Do LICs want to continue to compete using the tax system to the extent possible, to step back from that competition, or to take some intermediate course? Pillar 2 does not itself change a country's desired position on the competition spectrum – it merely affects how, and to what extent, that position can still be obtained. This paper posits that LICs should adopt qualified domestic minimum top-up taxes, and that this will not itself have a negative impact on their competitiveness. The primary focus of the paper, however, is on the design of the substance-based income exclusion (carve-out), examining the following three questions. Should the GloBE have been designed without a carve-out? Would there have been a better way of designing it? How will LICs be affected? The paper concludes that, as little real advantage is likely to accrue to LICs from intangible assets, minimising tax competition for those assets will have relatively little impact on them; and that, from an economic efficiency standpoint, shifting the tax burden away from a normal return and toward economic rents – albeit imperfectly – is a reasonable solution.     

Implications of nurse-physician relations: report of a successful intervention

Given the evidence linking medical errors to ineffective communication, strategies for improving communication among health care professionals must be implemented. The purpose of this article was to examine the effect of a collaborative intervention on improving communication patterns between nurses and physicians on two study units. The intervention consisted of two nurses and two physicians (per unit) meeting together (8 hours total) to collaboratively develop a solution to communication issues on their respective units. Physicians scored significantly higher on reports of openness of communication within groups, openness between groups, accuracy between groups, and collaboration between groups. Collaboration reported among nurses and physicians improved for both professions, with significance reached for physicians (p = 0.031). Strategies must be identified to break down the barriers set by the current culture, and that expedite the development of a team-centered culture supporting collaborative relations among health care professionals.     

How far, and how fast? Population, culture, and carrying capacity in Aruba

Our paper outlines the preparation of a Framework for Sustainable Tourism on the Caribbean Island of Aruba from the standpoint of futurists involved in public policy. Despite remarkable success with tourism over nearly half-a century, Arubans have become periodically concerned about the long-run sustainability of their major industry, their culture, and their Island. The paper explains the historic industrial epochs that have led to the demographic layering and cultural division of labor, the development of tourism from its beginnings in the 1950s, and to present-day concerns about over-development and migration behind the setting up of a National Tourism Council (NTC) in 2001. The basic issues confronted by the NTC were set within the overarching question of “how far and how fast” tourism in Aruba could or should expand. Following on from three exploratory scenarios, the Framework prepared by the authors makes proposals for expansion of tourism in distinctive culture regions and corresponding tourism products over the next two generations of Arubans at a pace that matches emerging needs, but below the carrying capacity of the Island. The paper explains the historic context, pragmatic assumptions made, empirical evidence used, and connects the approach to other papers in this issue.     

Volatility forecasting: combinations of realized volatility measures and forecasting models

This article examines financial time series volatility forecasting performance. Different from other studies which either focus on combining individual realized measures or combining forecasting models, we consider both. Specifically, we construct nine important individual realized measures and consider combinations including the mean, the median and the geometric means as well as an optimal combination. We also apply a simple AR(1) model, an SV model with contemporaneous dependence, an HAR model and three linear combinations of these models. Using the robust forecasting evaluation measures including RMSE and QLIKE, our empirical evidence from both equity market indices and exchange rates suggests that combinations of both volatility measures and forecasting models improve the forecast performance significantly.     

The status of purchasing and supply management in Finland and Russia

Previous studies have shown that long-term planning, collaborative supplier relationships and supply management capabilities reflect the strategic role and importance of purchasing and supply management (PSM) in firms, regardless of the nature of the business. This study examines how these elements behave in different business environments, such as in Western countries and emerging economies. Finland and Russia were chosen to represent two extremes in terms of international economic competitiveness and the business environment. A survey was conducted in both countries. Regression analyses were run from both samples to examine the effects of long-term planning, collaborative supplier relationships and supply management capabilities on the status of PSM by using data from 100 Finnish firms and 208 Russian firms. The results showed that these elements positively influence the status of PSM in both countries.