Data snooping in equity premium prediction

We analyze the performance of a comprehensive set of equity premium forecasting strategies. All strategies were found to outperform the mean in previous academic publications. However, using a multiple testing framework to account for data snooping, our findings support Welch and Goyal (2008) in that almost all equity premium forecasts fail to beat the mean out-of-sample. Only few forecasting strategies that are based on Ferreira and Santa-Clara’s (2011) sum-of-the-parts approach generate robust and statistically significant economic gains relative to the historical mean even after controlling for data snooping and accounting for transaction costs.     

Haushaltsnotlagen im Bundesstaat

Vor dem Bundesverfassungsgericht wird gegenw?rtig der Normenkontrollantrag Berlins auf Feststellung einer „extremen Haushaltsnotlage“ und Zahlung von Sonder-Bundeserg?nzungszuweisungen des Bundes verhandelt. Entsprechende Klagen des Saarlandes und Bremens sind eingereicht. Verhandelt werden in Karlsruhe Grundfragen unserer f?deralen Staatsordnung. Nach welchen Kriterien werden extreme Haushaltsnotlagen festgestellt? Wie ist der Tatbestand der Hilfeleistungspflicht unter den heutigen finanzwirtschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen zu bewerten, die eine Folge der Schieflagen in der bundesstaatlichen Aufgaben-, Ausgaben- und Einnahmenverteilung sind? Welche Konsequenzen ergeben sich für die Art und den Umfang der Sanierungshilfe sowie den m?glichen Eigenbeitrag des Haushaltsnotlagenlandes? Prof. Dr. Rudolf Wendt, 60, ist Inhaber des Lehrstuhls für Staats- und Verwaltungsrecht, Wirtschafts-, Finanz- und Steuerrecht an der Universit?t des Saarlandes in Saarbrücken; Wolfgang F?rster, 46, Dipl.-Volkswirt, ist Referatsleiter im Ministerium der Finanzen des Saarlandes.     

Commercial Mortgage Defaults: Proportional Hazards Estimation Using Individual Loan Histories

This paper examines the theory of commercial mortgage default and tests it using a data set of 2,899 loan histories provided by a major multi-line insurance company. A default model is estimated which relates subsequent default incidence and timing to contemporaneous loan term, borrower, property and economic/market conditions. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate a hazard function predicting conditional probability of default over time. Results confirm many expected default relationships, in particular the dominance of loan terms and property value trends over time in affecting default. The effectiveness of the model in discriminating between "good" and "bad" loans is explored. Implications for underwriting practice and credit risk diversification are noted. Finally, suggestions are made for extending these results in pricing applications.     

Neue Finanztechnologien — Bankenmarkt in Bewegung

Digitalisation opens new channels for financial transactions. Crowdlending and Digital Advice offer additional opportunities for customers to manage their assets. In the banking market, “FinTechs” are the most notable example of what Schumpeter described as “creative destruction”. They could threaten the existence of established banks. Therefore the banks should use the FinTechs as a testing laboratory for customer behavior and testing ground for a more modern marketing policy. This environment gives rise to concerns that there may develop an unregulated area of shadow banks. But it should be considered that a level playing field has to be ensured and that innovative processes and products are not stalled. A potential advantage of Digital Advice is that consumers can have the possibility to access the relevant information they need to make their financial decisions. Consumers, in turn, are only able to benefit from this advantage if competition between financial service providers leads to a supply of clear and comprehensible information about financial products and an appropriate degree of data security. The rise of Big Data analyses in retail banking allows a more precise estimation of creditworthiness risk as well as a consumer’s willingness-to-pay, propensity to switch and responsiveness to marketing offers. This not only impacts on competition, it represents major challenges for policymakers, authorities and consumers alike.     

Good Consumer Information: the Information Paradigm at its (Dead) End?

The traditional information paradigm postulates that increasing the amount of information and establishing full transparency help consumers with their decisions. We challenge this assumption and address criteria that good consumer information needs to fulfil. Based on the findings from research in behavioural economics and finance, necessary conditions for good consumer information include transparency, comprehensibleness, and comparability, whereas quality—in terms of clarity, fit to personal needs, and verifiability—represents the sufficient condition for good consumer information. Information that consumers currently receive hardly fulfils these conditions which, in turn, considerably hampers the trustworthiness and usability of this information. To mitigate consumers’ information problem and to recover the idea of the information paradigm, we suggest to extend the information model and to integrate the idea of collective consumers, to establish product testing principles, and to implement controlled minimum standard for (financial) products.     

Gender and managerial coaching across cultures: female managers are coaching more

Despite the increasing popularity of managerial coaching in organizations worldwide, little is known with regard to how gender and culture may affect managerial behavior. The present study is the first empirical study on managerial coaching on a global scale. Based on social role theory, role congruity theory, and cross-cultural theory, we first expect female leaders to engage in more coaching behavior than male leaders. Second, we expect that male leadership, particularly coaching behavior, is more influenced by societal culture than female leadership. Survey data were obtained from more than 600,000 employees, assessing coaching behavior of more than 130,000 practicing managers from 51 countries/areas. Results support both expectations. Taken together, this study has advanced our empirical and theoretical understanding of managerial coaching on a global scale.