Can Russia Resettle the Far East?

Russian scholars, politicians and media have been alarmed by the declining population of the Far East, seeing it as a step towards eventual takeover of the region by China. This article shows that the progressive depopulation of the Far East is a reality and will continue in the coming decades. In addition to natural decline, the Far Eastern population will shrink faster than that of Russia because of net outmigration. Economic stagnation will keep migration from the South of the region at its present low rates. Recovery will increase mobility and allow the present deferred migrants to leave for European Russia. In the unlikely event that the Far East outperforms the rest of the country economically, it will attract migrants. However, any inflow is likely to be small because of the shrinking populations in European Russia and other ex-Soviet republics, and the competition for migrants from other parts of the world.     

An analysis of the demand for housing attributes

This paper uses a two-step approach to estimate a system of structural demand equations for housing attributes. Estimation of a hedonic price regression, in the first step, yields implicit prices for housing attributes for the Toronto Metropolitan area in 1978, which are then used to estimate the expenditure share equations derived from the indirect translog utility function. Empirical results indicate that the composite housing attributes (used in the second stage model) are own-price elastic, while an examination of cross price relationships reveals that these attributes are reasonably substitutable.     

有助于开发新的失效分析方法

介绍复杂设备采用失效分析新方法（FMEA），找出可能发生的潜在失效原因，减少或消除失效风险，提高设备可靠性，并以有轨电车为例来说明。     

Time Inhomogeneous Multiple Volatility Modeling

Price variations at speculative markets exhibit positive autocorrelationand cross correlation. Due to large parameter spaces necessaryfor joint modeling of variances and covariances, multivariateparametric volatility models become easily intractable in practice.We propose an adaptive procedure that identifies periods ofsecond-order homogeneity for each moment in time. To overcomethe high dimensionality of the problem we transform the multivariateseries into a set of univariate processes. We discuss thoroughlythe implementation of the adaptive technique. Theoretical andMonte Carlo results are given. We provide two applications ofthe new method. For a bivariate exchange rate series we comparethe multivariate GARCH approach with our method and find thelatter to be more in line with the underlying assumption ofindependently distributed innovations. Analyzing a 23-dimensionalvector of asset returns we underscore the case for adaptivemodeling in high-dimensional systems.     

Moment explosions in stochastic volatility models

In this paper, we demonstrate that many stochastic volatility models have the undesirable property that moments of order higher than 1 can become infinite in finite time. As arbitrage-free price computation for a number of important fixed income products involves forming expectations of functions with super-linear growth, such lack of moment stability is of significant practical importance. For instance, we demonstrate that reasonably parametrized models can produce infinite prices for Eurodollar futures and for swaps with floating legs paying either Libor-in-arrears or a constant maturity swap rate. We systematically examine the moment explosion property across a spectrum of stochastic volatility models. We show that lognormal and displaced-diffusion type models are easily prone to moment explosions, whereas CEV-type models (including the so-called SABR model) are not. Related properties such as the failure of the martingale property are also considered.

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1917–2017: The Geopolitical Legacy of the Russian Revolution

The essays collected in this forum discuss the geopolitical legacy of the Russian Revolution of 1917, one of the most momentous political events of the twentieth century. From a range of different academic disciplines and perspectives, the authors consider how the profound transformations in society and politics were refracted through space and geography, and how enduring these refractions proved to be. The authors focus on three themes that have been dominant in Russian affairs over the past century: 1)the problem of center-periphery relations, 2)the civilizational dynamics of Russia’s self-identification in relation to Europe and to Asia, and 3)the geopolitics of national identity.     

Investment and Innovation State Support of Agriculture in Russia as a Condition of WTO

Russian agriculture is one of the industries operating in the unstable economic situation in a developing market taking into account risks of the world economy, economic, political, and climatic factors. The role of agriculture is to provide people＇s needs for food, significant effects on employment, the efficiency of domestic production, and way of life in rural areas by obligatory preserving food security in Russia. One of the major tasks for agriculture is the development of innovations and investments aimed at improving the competitiveness of the domestic agricultural sector. Russia＇s membership in the WTO since 2012 is getting a particular importance in the innovation and investment support of agriculture. The strategy of innovative development of the Russian Federation until 2020 ＂Innovative Russia--2020＂ assumes three possible options for innovative development： inertial （directed on imports）, catch-up development and a local technological competitiveness and a variant of achieving leadership in leading scientific and technical sectors, and fundamental research. A positive point is that the strategy provides an algorithm of state support of the innovation cycle. The innovation cycle is the process associated with the sequence of innovation transformations （scientific or business ideas） in products, technology, business process and launches it on the market for commercial use. A positively developing regional aspect is of great importance.