Institutional ownership,analyst following,and share prices

We study the mutual relationships between institutional ownership, analyst following and share prices. We show that the pressure on firms to set lower share prices to attract analysts is attenuated by institutional monitoring. Our theory refutes the assumed causal relation between share price and institutional ownership, attributed to the share price–liquidity relation, and we show empirically that share prices and institutional ownership are positively related after controlling for liquidity. Our study provides a rationale for why better firms generally maintain higher share price levels, and offers new insights into the puzzling empirical linkages observed between nominal share price levels and firm fundamentals.     

Continuity Estimates for Ruin Probabilities

A method of continuity analysis of ruin probabilities with respect to variation of parameters governing risk processes is proposed. It is based on the representation of the ruin probability as the stationary probability of a reversed process. We apply Kartashov's technique designed for continuity analysis of stationary distributions of general Markov chains in order to obtain desired continuity estimates. The method is illustrated by the Sparre Andersen and Markov modulated risk models.     

The maximum entropy mortality model: forecasting mortality using statistical moments

ABSTRACT

The age-at-death distribution is a representation of the mortality experience in a population. Although it proves to be highly informative, it is often neglected when it comes to the practice of past or future mortality assessment. We propose an innovative method to mortality modeling and forecasting by making use of the location and shape measures of a density function, i.e. statistical moments. Time series methods for extrapolating a limited number of moments are used and then the reconstruction of the future age-at-death distribution is performed. The predictive power of the method seems to be net superior when compared to the results obtained using classical approaches to extrapolating age-specific-death rates, and the accuracy of the point forecast (MASE) is improved on average by 33% respective to the state-of-the-art, the Lee–Carter model. The method is tested using data from the Human Mortality Database and implemented in a publicly available R package.     

Give Macroeconomic Stability and Growth in Russia a Chance

This paper identifies and investigates conceptual and empirical links among Russia's disappointing growth performance of the mid-1990s, its costly and eventually unsuccessful stabilization, the macroeconomic meltdown of 1998 and the spectacular rise of non-payments. Non-payments developed into a system that flourished in an atmosphere of fundamental inconsistency between a macroeconomic policy geared at sharp disinflation and a microeconomic policy of bailing-out enterprises through soft budget constraints. It embodies a large volume of untargeted, implicit subsidies in the order of 7–10 per cent of GDP, which has stifled growth, contributed to the 1998 meltdown through its impact on public debt and made at best a questionable contribution to equity. The overwhelming priority at this point is to dismantle this system, thereby promoting enterprise restructuring and growth (by hardening budget constraints) and medium-term macroeconomic stability (by reducing the size of the subsidies).     

An empirical model of the Brazilian country risk -- an extension of the beta country risk model

The paper examines the distribution of unemployment experience in Britain within the framework of the Han and Hausman semi-parametric estimator, which has the advantage of circumventing problems associated with individual heterogeneity arising from unobserved individual characteristics. The results imply that the unemployment burden is unequally distributed among the working population. Males and females bear an unequal unemployment burden. The study casts light on the characteristics of those individuals who are most likely to experience a high unemployment burden.     

Has new business creation in russia come to a halt?

Successful transformation of centrally planned economies requires not just the privatization of the existing firms, but also the formation of new ones. New entrants serve to correct for the central planners' neglect of such sectors as services and consumer goods, and their bias in favor of large firms. Indeed, Central European economies have been experiencing a rapid rate of new business creation, as measured by the change in the number of small firms. Russia also experienced a short period of explosive growth in the number of new business. However, since 1994 net new business formation has stagnated. This paper looks into the possible causes of this phenomenon.Official data on the change in the number of small businesses, which serve as a proxy for net new business formation, arouse justified suspicion because of the frequent changes in the definition of “small enterprise.” Like everywhere in the world, some Russian registered firms do not become operational, and some firms that have ceased operations do not legally disband. If the share of these “dead souls” in the total count of small firms changes over time and official statistics does not adjust its count accordingly, the data may show the opposite of the actual processes. This paper analyzes Russian data collection procedures and other evidence, and concludes that stagnation in the new business formation is a real phenomenon, rather than a statistical artifact.The difficulty in finding out the causes of stagnation is that empirical studies focus on the existing businesses and miss those that should have been born but were not. The problems faced by the incumbents and frustrated entrants may well be different. The likely causes of the end of new business creation are the increased tax and regulatory burden, combined with plunder by the numerous tax and regulatory authorities. Other possible explanations involve the incumbents' use of the authorities and/or racketeers to erect barriers against new entrants.     

Measuring potential gains from reallocation of resources

In this work we consider the case when efficient operation of individual economic units does not necessarily imply efficiency for a group of these units. Merging theoretical findings of Li and Ng (Int Adv Econ Res, 1995, 1, 377.) and Färe and Zelenyuk (Eur J Oper Res, 2003, 146, 615), we develop new group-wise efficiency indexes that measure the extent to which the performance of a group of economic units can be enhanced, even if all these units are individually efficient. The existence of such potential improvement is attributed to non-optimal allocation of inputs across the individual economic units from the point of view of a group of these units.