The spillover effects of infill developments on local housing prices

This paper examines the spillover effects of infill developments, which involve developing vacant or under-used parcels within existing urban areas that are largely developed, on local housing prices. Employing a difference-in-difference specification on a sample of 275 new developments and 55,887 sale transactions of houses in Singapore, we find that infill developments have a positive and persistent impact on local housing prices. The contagion effect is larger for infill developments that are built on teardown sites. The spillover effect can also be traced to the overpricing of new homes by developers. Overall, the evidence indicates that developers act as price leaders and contribute significantly to price discovery in the local housing market.     

Cost-effectiveness of rivaroxaban compared with enoxaparin plus a vitamin K antagonist for the treatment of venous thromboembolism

Background:

Venous thromboembolism (VTE), comprised of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), is commonly treated with a low-molecular-weight heparin such as enoxaparin plus a vitamin K antagonist (VKA) to prevent recurrence. Administration of enoxaparin?+?VKA is hampered by complexities of laboratory monitoring and frequent dose adjustments. Rivaroxaban, an orally administered anticoagulant, has been compared with enoxaparin?+?VKA in the EINSTEIN trials. The objective was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of rivaroxaban compared with enoxaparin?+?VKA as anticoagulation treatment for acute, symptomatic, objectively-confirmed DVT or PE.

Methods:

A Markov model was built to evaluate the costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios associated with rivaroxaban compared to enoxaparin?+?VKA in adult patients treated for acute DVT or PE. All patients entered the model in the ‘on-treatment’ state upon commencement of oral rivaroxaban or enoxaparin?+?VKA for 3, 6, or 12 months. Transition probabilities were obtained from the EINSTEIN trials during treatment and published literature after treatment. A 3-month cycle length, US payer perspective ($2012), 5-year time horizon and a 3% annual discount rate were used.

Results:

Treatment with rivaroxaban cost $2,448 per-patient less and was associated with 0.0058 more QALYs compared with enoxaparin?+?VKA, making it a dominant economic strategy. Upon one-way sensitivity analysis, the model’s results were sensitive to the reduction in index VTE hospitalization length-of-stay associated with rivaroxaban compared with enoxaparin?+?VKA. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY, probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed rivaroxaban to be cost-effective compared with enoxaparin?+?VKA approximately 76% of the time.

Limitations:

The model did not account for the benefits associated with an oral and minimally invasive administration of rivaroxaban. ‘Real-world’ applicability is limited because data from the EINSTEIN trials were used in the model. Also, resource utilization and costs were based on the US healthcare system.

Conclusion:

Rivaroxaban is a cost-effective option for anticoagulation treatment of acute VTE patients.     

Temptation and social security in a dynastic framework

We investigate welfare and aggregate implications of a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) social security system in a dynastic framework in which individuals have self-control problems. The presence of self-control problems induces individuals to save less because of their urge for temptation towards current consumption. Individuals' efforts to balance between the short-term urge for temptation and the long-term commitment for consumption smoothing result in self-control costs. In this environment PAYG social security works as a self-control cost reducing device. In contrast, the presence of altruism induces individuals to save more. This in turn mitigates the adverse effects of self-control problems and PAYG social security on savings but magnifies the self-control costs. We find that in our environment the adverse welfare effects of a PAYG system are further mitigated relative to the environments that incorporate altruism and self control issues separately. However, the level of mitigation is quite modest.     

Determinants of the Physical Demand for Gold: Evidence from Panel Data

Although the role of gold in the world economy has declined since the gold standard was abandoned, it remains important as a central bank reserve, a hedge against risks, a barometer of geopolitical uncertainty, and an input for jewellery. While portfolio demand for gold has been well studied, determinants of physical demand are less understood. Certain emerging‐market countries such as China and India import substantial amounts of gold, with several factors that may contribute: low financial development, need for precautionary savings and/or strong cultural valuation of gold itself. This article uses panel data on gold imports of 21 countries to examine determinants of physical demand. We find that determinants of physical demand differ from those of portfolio demand, and that they differ between the developed and developing worlds.     

Export diversification and real exchange rate in emerging Latin America and Asia: A South–North vs. South-South decomposition

The present paper examines the directional causality between export diversification and real exchange rate in the middle-income countries of Asia and Latin America over the period from 1995 to 2013. Additionally, we investigate asymmetries in the causality issue by examining the direction across trading partners.

Our empirical results show that there is a two-way causality between the two variables when we look at the sample as a whole. A causal link running from the real exchange rate to export diversification is consistent with the standard literature but it is not systematic at all. The reverse causation is very appealing and challenges the standard argument on exchange rate determination. When the causality issue is investigated by treating export markets differently, our findings at the aggregate level are confirmed in exports destined for the advanced countries. The analysis for ‘South-South’ trade only shows a unidirectional link from the real exchange rate to changes in export diversification. The same tests performed at the individual countries level reveal a heterogeneous causality across trading partners.     

Uncertainty and Investment: Evidence from Australian Firm Panel Data

This paper investigates the key drivers of fixed firm investment of listed non‐financial companies in Australia over the period from 1987 to 2009. A Tobin's q model of investment is augmented to account for the effect of economic uncertainty on the investment decision. The effects of Tobin's q, sales and cash flows on firm investment rate are also analysed and discussed. Consistent with existing literature, this research finds clear evidence of negative effects of both macroeconomic and firm idiosyncratic uncertainty on Australian firm investment. However, evidence also shows that firm‐specific uncertainty is more important in explaining firm investment than macroeconomic uncertainty.     

The interplay of human and social capital in shaping entrepreneurial performance: the case of Vietnam

This study investigates the effects of human capital, social capital and their interaction on the performance of 1,398 Vietnamese new-born firms. Operating profit is used as the measure of success. Human capital is captured by individual-level professional education, start-up experience, and learning. Whereas the first two dimensions of human capital are measured with traditional indicators, we define learning as the ability to accumulate knowledge to conduct innovation activities (new product introduction, product innovation and process innovation). Social capital is measured as benefits obtained from personal strong-tie and weak-tie networks. Key findings are threefold: (i) human capital strongly predicts firm success, with learning exhibiting a statistically significant positive association with operating profit, (ii) benefits from weak ties outweigh those from strong ties, (iii) interaction of human capital and social capital displays a statistically significant positive effect on new-firm performance.     

Predicting the sample mean by extreme order statistics

Summary This paper considers the prediction of the sample mean by extreme order statistics when the population distribution is known. The predictor and its mean square error are found. The problem is studied in details for the normal model.     

Analysis of the technical efficiency of state rubber farms in Vietnam

This study entails an analysis of the technical efficiency of natural rubber production by state farms in Vietnam. A time-varying stochastic frontier production function model for unbalanced data is estimated for 33 farms. Individual farm technical efficiencies are reported and discussed. One of the main results concerns the bimodal distribution of technical efficiency indices. A few farms operate near the production frontier while the bulk operate well away from the frontier. Some implications are drawn from the results as a guide to future policy research work in the rubber industry in light of recent moves by the Vietnamese government towards economic reform.     

The extension of social security coverage in developing countries

We study the dynamic general equilibrium effects of introducing a social pension program to elderly informal sector workers in developing countries who lack formal risk sharing mechanisms against income and longevity risks. To this end, we formulate a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates defining features of developing countries: a large informal sector, private transfers as an informal safety net, and a non-universal social security system. We find that the extension of retirement benefits to informal sector workers results in efficiency losses due to adverse effects on capital accumulation and the allocation of resources across formal and informal sectors. Despite these losses recipients of social pensions experience welfare gains as the positive insurance effects attributed to the extension of a social insurance system dominate. The welfare gains crucially depend on the skill distribution, private intra-family transfers and the specific tax used to finance the expansion.